Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 2

KDFW · gfs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.91 [1.49, 2.38]1.45+1.03 [-0.06, 1.85]2.31 [1.74, 2.84]21% [11%, 31%]64%79%+0.16+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.91 [1.48, 2.45]1.45+1.03 [-0.15, 2.02]2.31 [1.72, 2.88]21% [10%, 30%]64%79%+0.16+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.91 [1.42, 2.47]1.45+1.03 [-0.34, 2.00]2.31 [1.60, 2.96]21% [9%, 32%]64%79%+0.16+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.91 [1.44, 2.55]1.45+1.03 [-0.15, 1.97]2.31 [1.62, 2.98]21% [8%, 31%]64%79%+0.16+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.88 [1.48, 2.32]1.47+0.93 [-0.17, 1.80]2.30 [1.75, 2.82]21% [11%, 31%]68%75%+0.18+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.88 [1.45, 2.34]1.47+0.93 [-0.26, 1.94]2.30 [1.73, 2.85]21% [10%, 30%]68%75%+0.18+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC1.88 [1.37, 2.42]1.47+0.93 [-0.49, 1.95]2.30 [1.59, 2.91]21% [9%, 32%]68%75%+0.18+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC1.88 [1.41, 2.47]1.47+0.93 [-0.27, 1.92]2.30 [1.67, 2.94]21% [8%, 31%]68%75%+0.18+0.372026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.99 [1.43, 2.60]1.35+1.40 [0.62, 2.14]2.47 [1.70, 3.12]25% [11%, 41%]68%82%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.99 [1.40, 2.72]1.35+1.40 [0.58, 2.31]2.47 [1.58, 3.18]25% [8%, 47%]68%82%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.99 [1.30, 2.80]1.35+1.40 [0.37, 2.30]2.47 [1.43, 3.27]25% [8%, 50%]68%82%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.99 [1.32, 2.89]1.35+1.40 [0.55, 2.34]2.47 [1.52, 3.31]25% [6%, 47%]68%82%+0.13+0.422026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC1.92 [1.40, 2.52]1.33+1.35 [0.64, 2.03]2.42 [1.63, 3.11]25% [11%, 41%]71%82%+0.16+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC1.92 [1.34, 2.58]1.33+1.35 [0.55, 2.22]2.42 [1.58, 3.12]25% [8%, 47%]71%82%+0.16+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC1.92 [1.25, 2.68]1.33+1.35 [0.33, 2.21]2.42 [1.42, 3.23]25% [8%, 50%]71%82%+0.16+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC1.92 [1.28, 2.74]1.33+1.35 [0.54, 2.20]2.42 [1.48, 3.25]25% [6%, 47%]71%82%+0.16+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.46 [2.73, 4.47]1.56+3.44 [2.70, 4.47]3.95 [3.18, 4.85]11% [0%, 21%]29%36%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.46 [2.81, 4.61]1.56+3.44 [2.80, 4.60]3.95 [3.24, 4.99]11% [0%, 20%]29%36%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.46 [2.74, 4.67]1.56+3.44 [2.72, 4.66]3.95 [3.18, 5.02]11% [0%, 21%]29%36%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.46 [2.73, 4.70]1.56+3.44 [2.71, 4.70]3.95 [3.21, 5.09]11% [0%, 22%]29%36%-0.49+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC3.96 [3.30, 4.91]1.69+3.96 [3.30, 4.91]4.46 [3.76, 5.28]14% [3%, 29%]18%32%-0.70+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC3.96 [3.31, 5.08]1.69+3.96 [3.31, 5.08]4.46 [3.78, 5.47]14% [0%, 29%]18%32%-0.70+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC3.96 [3.25, 5.13]1.69+3.96 [3.25, 5.13]4.46 [3.76, 5.42]14% [0%, 29%]18%32%-0.70+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC3.96 [3.21, 5.09]1.69+3.96 [3.21, 5.09]4.46 [3.74, 5.49]14% [0%, 31%]18%32%-0.70+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.79 [2.73, 4.95]1.57+3.71 [2.57, 4.95]4.24 [3.09, 5.29]4% [0%, 10%]18%32%-0.63+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.79 [2.70, 5.20]1.57+3.71 [2.54, 5.20]4.24 [3.09, 5.54]4% [0%, 11%]18%32%-0.63+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.79 [2.58, 5.32]1.57+3.71 [2.46, 5.32]4.24 [2.99, 5.61]4% [0%, 11%]18%32%-0.63+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.79 [2.65, 5.26]1.57+3.71 [2.43, 5.25]4.24 [2.99, 5.66]4% [0%, 11%]18%32%-0.63+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC4.39 [3.47, 5.41]1.76+4.20 [3.11, 5.39]4.80 [3.78, 5.75]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-0.89+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC4.39 [3.42, 5.63]1.76+4.20 [3.02, 5.62]4.80 [3.75, 5.95]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-0.89+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC4.39 [3.33, 5.67]1.76+4.20 [2.94, 5.67]4.80 [3.65, 6.01]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-0.89+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC4.39 [3.36, 5.69]1.76+4.20 [2.98, 5.68]4.80 [3.67, 6.05]0% [0%, 0%]11%32%-0.89+0.252026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +1.78 °F2026-08-04: +3.84 °F2026-08-05: +3.45 °F2026-08-06: +1.34 °F2026-08-07: +0.41 °F2026-08-08: +1.17 °F2026-08-09: +0.13 °F2026-08-10: +3.46 °F2026-08-11: +1.41 °F2026-08-12: +1.36 °F2026-08-13: +1.89 °F2026-08-14: +1.25 °F2026-08-15: +2.19 °F2026-08-16: +0.92 °F2026-08-17: +0.4 °F2026-08-18: +2.04 °F2026-08-19: +1.19 °F2026-08-20: +2.25 °F2026-08-21: +5.9 °F2026-08-22: +1.22 °F2026-08-23: -3.81 °F2026-08-24: -1.81 °F2026-08-25: -3.68 °F2026-08-26: -0.74 °F2026-08-27: +1.67 °F2026-08-28: -2.28 °F2026-08-29: +0.52 °F2026-08-30: +1.35 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.35
2026-08-29+0.52
2026-08-28-2.28
2026-08-27+1.67
2026-08-26-0.74
2026-08-25-3.68
2026-08-24-1.81
2026-08-23-3.81
2026-08-22+1.22
2026-08-21+5.90
2026-08-20+2.25
2026-08-19+1.19
2026-08-18+2.04
2026-08-17+0.40
2026-08-16+0.92
2026-08-15+2.19
2026-08-14+1.25
2026-08-13+1.89
2026-08-12+1.36
2026-08-11+1.41
2026-08-10+3.46
2026-08-09+0.13
2026-08-08+1.17
2026-08-07+0.41
2026-08-06+1.34
2026-08-05+3.45
2026-08-04+3.84
2026-08-03+1.78

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 11 days2 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.54 · P90 |e| 3.72 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.0011
+2.00+3.003
+3.00+4.003
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08281.91 +1.03

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 28 -1.24 [-2.02, -0.58] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.39 [-4.39, -4.39] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.47 [-3.47, -3.47] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -4.68 [-5.75, -3.55] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -0.73 [-1.95, 0.14] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.39 [-3.39, -3.39] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 -0.38 [-1.51, 0.56] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence