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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.53 [1.74, 3.39]1.72-1.65 [-2.77, -0.63]2.98 [1.93, 3.71]14% [0%, 30%]45%64%-0.03+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.53 [1.57, 3.51]1.72-1.65 [-2.95, -0.46]2.98 [1.70, 3.79]14% [0%, 35%]45%64%-0.03+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.53 [1.60, 3.59]1.72-1.65 [-3.04, -0.38]2.98 [1.77, 3.85]14% [0%, 38%]45%64%-0.03+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.53 [1.52, 3.50]1.72-1.65 [-2.82, -0.35]2.98 [1.65, 3.80]14% [0%, 38%]45%64%-0.03+0.302026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.75 [2.01, 3.58]1.71-1.99 [-3.06, -0.99]3.15 [2.23, 3.92]14% [0%, 30%]45%64%-0.12+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.75 [1.77, 3.68]1.71-1.99 [-3.24, -0.84]3.15 [2.04, 3.99]14% [0%, 35%]45%64%-0.12+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.75 [1.84, 3.76]1.71-1.99 [-3.29, -0.74]3.15 [2.09, 4.04]14% [0%, 38%]45%64%-0.12+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.75 [1.76, 3.65]1.71-1.99 [-3.13, -0.69]3.15 [1.99, 3.98]14% [0%, 38%]45%64%-0.12+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.59 [1.74, 3.39]1.70-1.72 [-2.62, -0.85]3.02 [1.98, 3.71]14% [4%, 31%]41%68%-0.02+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.59 [1.39, 3.44]1.70-1.72 [-2.63, -0.71]3.02 [1.67, 3.76]14% [0%, 43%]41%68%-0.02+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.59 [1.35, 3.50]1.70-1.72 [-2.72, -0.64]3.02 [1.61, 3.82]14% [0%, 39%]41%68%-0.02+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.59 [1.40, 3.46]1.70-1.72 [-2.60, -0.64]3.02 [1.66, 3.79]14% [0%, 42%]41%68%-0.02+0.332026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.75 [1.90, 3.57]1.74-1.97 [-2.91, -1.08]3.17 [2.14, 3.98]18% [5%, 35%]32%64%-0.08+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.75 [1.54, 3.63]1.74-1.97 [-2.90, -0.99]3.17 [1.76, 4.02]18% [5%, 46%]32%64%-0.08+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.75 [1.52, 3.72]1.74-1.97 [-2.97, -0.87]3.17 [1.76, 4.07]18% [0%, 44%]32%64%-0.08+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC2.75 [1.55, 3.64]1.74-1.97 [-2.87, -0.87]3.17 [1.74, 4.01]18% [0%, 43%]32%64%-0.08+0.322026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.05 [2.19, 3.75]1.25+3.03 [2.14, 3.75]3.43 [2.63, 4.01]9% [0%, 25%]32%55%-0.49+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.05 [2.22, 3.83]1.25+3.03 [2.17, 3.83]3.43 [2.63, 4.08]9% [0%, 29%]32%55%-0.49+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.05 [2.12, 3.83]1.25+3.03 [2.07, 3.83]3.43 [2.58, 4.07]9% [0%, 31%]32%55%-0.49+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.05 [2.15, 3.90]1.25+3.03 [2.10, 3.90]3.43 [2.61, 4.16]9% [0%, 29%]32%55%-0.49+0.392026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.21 [2.41, 3.87]1.27+3.21 [2.41, 3.87]3.58 [2.83, 4.14]9% [0%, 25%]18%45%-0.57+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.21 [2.44, 3.92]1.27+3.21 [2.44, 3.92]3.58 [2.85, 4.18]9% [0%, 29%]18%45%-0.57+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.21 [2.33, 3.92]1.27+3.21 [2.33, 3.92]3.58 [2.77, 4.18]9% [0%, 31%]18%45%-0.57+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC3.21 [2.36, 4.01]1.27+3.21 [2.36, 4.01]3.58 [2.83, 4.26]9% [0%, 29%]18%45%-0.57+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.71 [1.87, 3.53]1.10+2.71 [1.87, 3.53]3.06 [2.09, 3.77]5% [0%, 13%]36%64%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.71 [1.86, 3.62]1.10+2.71 [1.86, 3.62]3.06 [2.11, 3.83]5% [0%, 14%]36%64%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.71 [1.83, 3.64]1.10+2.71 [1.83, 3.64]3.06 [2.07, 3.87]5% [0%, 15%]36%64%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.71 [1.84, 3.70]1.10+2.71 [1.84, 3.70]3.06 [2.07, 3.91]5% [0%, 14%]36%64%-0.27+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.94 [2.12, 3.73]1.08+2.94 [2.12, 3.73]3.26 [2.28, 4.03]5% [0%, 13%]23%59%-0.37+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.94 [2.11, 3.77]1.08+2.94 [2.11, 3.77]3.26 [2.28, 4.05]5% [0%, 14%]23%59%-0.37+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.94 [2.07, 3.84]1.08+2.94 [2.07, 3.84]3.26 [2.23, 4.10]5% [0%, 15%]23%59%-0.37+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.94 [2.07, 3.87]1.08+2.94 [2.07, 3.87]3.26 [2.25, 4.16]5% [0%, 14%]23%59%-0.37+0.482026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: +0.4 °F2026-08-08: -2.76 °F2026-08-09: -3.08 °F2026-08-11: -1.16 °F2026-08-13: -1.2 °F2026-08-14: -1.47 °F2026-08-15: -2.38 °F2026-08-16: -1.49 °F2026-08-17: -2.12 °F2026-08-18: -1.52 °F2026-08-19: -1.51 °F2026-08-20: -0.24 °F2026-08-21: +5.94 °F2026-08-22: -0.29 °F2026-08-23: -3.84 °F2026-08-24: -2.83 °F2026-08-25: +3.28 °F2026-08-26: -4.47 °F2026-08-27: -4.5 °F2026-08-28: -4.78 °F2026-08-29: -4.64 °F2026-08-30: -1.69 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.69
2026-08-29-4.64
2026-08-28-4.78
2026-08-27-4.50
2026-08-26-4.47
2026-08-25+3.28
2026-08-24-2.83
2026-08-23-3.84
2026-08-22-0.29
2026-08-21+5.94
2026-08-20-0.24
2026-08-19-1.51
2026-08-18-1.52
2026-08-17-2.12
2026-08-16-1.49
2026-08-15-2.38
2026-08-14-1.47
2026-08-13-1.20
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-1.16
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-3.08
2026-08-08-2.76
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03+0.40

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.25 · P90 |e| 4.62 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08222.53 -1.65

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -1.03 [-1.87, -0.38] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -4.05 [-4.05, -4.05] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.13 [-3.13, -3.13] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +0.73 [-0.14, 1.95] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -4.60 [-5.86, -3.35] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -3.05 [-3.05, -3.05] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.07 [-1.22, 1.44] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence