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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 2

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.15 [2.53, 3.83]1.61-3.04 [-3.66, -2.47]3.63 [2.91, 4.25]14% [4%, 24%]32%50%-0.38+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.15 [2.47, 3.88]1.61-3.04 [-3.74, -2.42]3.63 [2.83, 4.32]14% [0%, 24%]32%50%-0.38+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.15 [2.42, 3.97]1.61-3.04 [-3.84, -2.42]3.63 [2.83, 4.40]14% [0%, 24%]32%50%-0.38+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.15 [2.40, 3.88]1.61-3.04 [-3.76, -2.40]3.63 [2.83, 4.31]14% [0%, 29%]32%50%-0.38+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC3.64 [3.09, 4.24]1.62-3.61 [-4.22, -3.07]4.12 [3.47, 4.72]7% [0%, 18%]18%39%-0.59+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC3.64 [3.02, 4.30]1.62-3.61 [-4.28, -3.01]4.12 [3.39, 4.78]7% [0%, 18%]18%39%-0.59+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC3.64 [3.01, 4.36]1.62-3.61 [-4.34, -3.00]4.12 [3.36, 4.82]7% [0%, 18%]18%39%-0.59+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC3.64 [3.00, 4.29]1.62-3.61 [-4.27, -3.00]4.12 [3.41, 4.79]7% [0%, 21%]18%39%-0.59+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.24 [2.73, 3.81]1.31-3.05 [-3.58, -2.61]3.53 [2.95, 4.13]7% [0%, 14%]18%50%-0.42+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.24 [2.66, 3.86]1.31-3.05 [-3.60, -2.53]3.53 [2.89, 4.16]7% [0%, 14%]18%50%-0.42+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.24 [2.65, 3.90]1.31-3.05 [-3.63, -2.57]3.53 [2.86, 4.22]7% [0%, 14%]18%50%-0.42+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.24 [2.62, 3.86]1.31-3.05 [-3.64, -2.55]3.53 [2.86, 4.14]7% [0%, 14%]18%50%-0.42+0.442026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC3.71 [3.23, 4.23]1.32-3.60 [-4.12, -3.16]4.02 [3.46, 4.63]4% [0%, 11%]18%32%-0.62+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC3.71 [3.18, 4.27]1.32-3.60 [-4.19, -3.09]4.02 [3.39, 4.66]4% [0%, 10%]18%32%-0.62+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC3.71 [3.14, 4.31]1.32-3.60 [-4.19, -3.10]4.02 [3.35, 4.70]4% [0%, 12%]18%32%-0.62+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC3.71 [3.13, 4.25]1.32-3.60 [-4.16, -3.08]4.02 [3.34, 4.66]4% [0%, 12%]18%32%-0.62+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.63 [1.31, 1.96]1.14-1.33 [-1.83, -0.83]1.90 [1.60, 2.17]36% [20%, 52%]64%89%+0.30+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.63 [1.26, 1.98]1.14-1.33 [-1.89, -0.82]1.90 [1.53, 2.19]36% [20%, 55%]64%89%+0.30+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.63 [1.25, 2.01]1.14-1.33 [-1.90, -0.80]1.90 [1.49, 2.20]36% [19%, 56%]64%89%+0.30+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.63 [1.24, 1.99]1.14-1.33 [-1.87, -0.80]1.90 [1.48, 2.19]36% [18%, 57%]64%89%+0.30+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC1.77 [1.40, 2.14]1.15-1.54 [-2.06, -1.04]2.07 [1.72, 2.37]29% [14%, 43%]54%86%+0.24+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC1.77 [1.34, 2.17]1.15-1.54 [-2.12, -1.01]2.07 [1.63, 2.42]29% [11%, 43%]54%86%+0.24+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC1.77 [1.31, 2.21]1.15-1.54 [-2.15, -0.98]2.07 [1.59, 2.44]29% [11%, 44%]54%86%+0.24+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC1.77 [1.31, 2.16]1.15-1.54 [-2.13, -0.97]2.07 [1.56, 2.42]29% [10%, 46%]54%86%+0.24+0.512026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC1.76 [1.38, 2.15]1.09-1.57 [-2.12, -1.02]2.06 [1.70, 2.37]25% [7%, 43%]57%89%+0.24+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC1.76 [1.33, 2.18]1.09-1.57 [-2.18, -0.98]2.06 [1.62, 2.41]25% [3%, 43%]57%89%+0.24+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC1.76 [1.30, 2.23]1.09-1.57 [-2.23, -0.96]2.06 [1.57, 2.43]25% [0%, 43%]57%89%+0.24+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC1.76 [1.30, 2.19]1.09-1.57 [-2.18, -0.95]2.06 [1.56, 2.40]25% [0%, 43%]57%89%+0.24+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC1.91 [1.49, 2.33]1.10-1.75 [-2.32, -1.20]2.21 [1.81, 2.55]25% [7%, 43%]54%82%+0.18+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC1.91 [1.44, 2.39]1.10-1.75 [-2.39, -1.13]2.21 [1.74, 2.60]25% [3%, 43%]54%82%+0.18+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC1.91 [1.38, 2.43]1.10-1.75 [-2.43, -1.12]2.21 [1.66, 2.63]25% [0%, 43%]54%82%+0.18+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC1.91 [1.37, 2.41]1.10-1.75 [-2.41, -1.11]2.21 [1.65, 2.60]25% [0%, 43%]54%82%+0.18+0.532026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -3.65 °F2026-08-04: -2.62 °F2026-08-05: -1.46 °F2026-08-06: -1.61 °F2026-08-07: -3.13 °F2026-08-08: -6.78 °F2026-08-09: -2.18 °F2026-08-10: -0.51 °F2026-08-11: -1.12 °F2026-08-12: -0.83 °F2026-08-13: -2.16 °F2026-08-14: -3.82 °F2026-08-15: -2.87 °F2026-08-16: -3.35 °F2026-08-17: -4.4 °F2026-08-18: -3.57 °F2026-08-19: -2.62 °F2026-08-20: -1.9 °F2026-08-21: +0.91 °F2026-08-22: -5.94 °F2026-08-23: -5.88 °F2026-08-24: -5.35 °F2026-08-25: +0.68 °F2026-08-26: -3.31 °F2026-08-27: -5.43 °F2026-08-28: -6.17 °F2026-08-29: -4.26 °F2026-08-30: -1.77 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.77
2026-08-29-4.26
2026-08-28-6.17
2026-08-27-5.43
2026-08-26-3.31
2026-08-25+0.68
2026-08-24-5.35
2026-08-23-5.88
2026-08-22-5.94
2026-08-21+0.91
2026-08-20-1.90
2026-08-19-2.62
2026-08-18-3.57
2026-08-17-4.40
2026-08-16-3.35
2026-08-15-2.87
2026-08-14-3.82
2026-08-13-2.16
2026-08-12-0.83
2026-08-11-1.12
2026-08-10-0.51
2026-08-09-2.18
2026-08-08-6.78
2026-08-07-3.13
2026-08-06-1.61
2026-08-05-1.46
2026-08-04-2.62
2026-08-03-3.65

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3 · P90 |e| 5.9 °F-100+10 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08283.15 -3.04

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.97 [-3.97, -3.97] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -3.05 [-3.05, -3.05] yes
NCEP GFS 28 +1.24 [0.58, 2.02] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -3.64 [-4.49, -2.83] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +1.03 [0.38, 1.87] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -2.97 [-2.97, -2.97] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 +0.87 [-0.25, 1.80] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence