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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 2

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d26 1 QC6.63 [5.76, 7.45]1.50-6.63 [-7.45, -5.76]6.90 [5.95, 7.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.83+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d26 1 QC6.63 [5.64, 7.44]1.50-6.63 [-7.44, -5.64]6.90 [5.72, 7.59]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.83+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d32 1 QC7.03 [6.09, 8.07]1.63-7.03 [-8.07, -6.09]7.33 [6.29, 8.34]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%-1.08+0.532026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall32 1 QC7.03 [6.03, 7.97]1.63-7.03 [-7.97, -6.03]7.33 [6.27, 8.22]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%-1.08+0.532026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d26 1 QC6.97 [6.12, 7.78]1.50-6.97 [-7.78, -6.12]7.23 [6.30, 7.93]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.97+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d26 1 QC6.97 [6.00, 7.75]1.50-6.97 [-7.75, -6.00]7.23 [6.07, 7.94]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.97+0.382026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d32 1 QC7.38 [6.42, 8.45]1.66-7.38 [-8.45, -6.42]7.68 [6.66, 8.72]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%-1.19+0.522026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall32 1 QC7.38 [6.40, 8.37]1.66-7.38 [-8.37, -6.40]7.68 [6.62, 8.62]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%-1.19+0.522026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d26 1 QC7.10 [6.36, 7.87]1.37-7.10 [-7.87, -6.36]7.31 [6.49, 7.98]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-2.02+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d26 1 QC7.10 [6.30, 7.89]1.37-7.10 [-7.89, -6.30]7.31 [6.43, 8.01]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-2.02+0.432026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d31 1 QC7.56 [6.57, 8.81]1.57-7.56 [-8.81, -6.57]7.83 [6.78, 8.99]0% [0%, 0%]3%3%-1.21+0.552026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall31 1 QC7.56 [6.60, 8.77]1.57-7.56 [-8.77, -6.60]7.83 [6.82, 9.03]0% [0%, 0%]3%3%-1.21+0.552026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d26 1 QC7.36 [6.62, 8.17]1.43-7.36 [-8.17, -6.62]7.58 [6.75, 8.26]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-2.14+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d26 1 QC7.36 [6.53, 8.18]1.43-7.36 [-8.18, -6.53]7.58 [6.68, 8.30]0% [0%, 0%]4%4%-2.14+0.412026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d31 1 QC7.85 [6.82, 9.16]1.63-7.85 [-9.16, -6.82]8.13 [7.04, 9.36]0% [0%, 0%]3%3%-1.30+0.542026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall31 1 QC7.85 [6.88, 9.13]1.63-7.85 [-9.13, -6.88]8.13 [7.09, 9.41]0% [0%, 0%]3%3%-1.30+0.542026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d26 1 QC1.11 [0.91, 1.33]1.08-0.26 [-0.62, 0.09]1.32 [1.08, 1.57]50% [40%, 61%]88%100%+0.53+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d26 1 QC1.11 [0.88, 1.33]1.08-0.26 [-0.65, 0.12]1.32 [1.04, 1.59]50% [38%, 62%]88%100%+0.53+0.552026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d32 1 QC1.67 [0.98, 2.87]1.74+0.52 [-0.42, 2.20]2.35 [1.15, 3.71]44% [29%, 58%]75%88%+0.44+0.422026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall32 1 QC1.67 [0.95, 2.87]1.74+0.52 [-0.43, 2.24]2.35 [1.12, 3.75]44% [27%, 57%]75%88%+0.44+0.422026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d26 1 QC1.08 [0.87, 1.32]1.05-0.25 [-0.58, 0.05]1.31 [1.05, 1.57]50% [40%, 61%]88%100%+0.54+0.562026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d26 1 QC1.08 [0.84, 1.33]1.05-0.25 [-0.61, 0.10]1.31 [1.02, 1.58]50% [38%, 62%]88%100%+0.54+0.562026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d32 1 QC1.61 [0.94, 2.77]1.69+0.49 [-0.38, 2.11]2.27 [1.14, 3.56]44% [29%, 58%]75%88%+0.46+0.442026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall32 1 QC1.61 [0.92, 2.74]1.69+0.49 [-0.39, 2.14]2.27 [1.10, 3.63]44% [27%, 57%]75%88%+0.46+0.442026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d26 1 QC1.23 [0.89, 1.59]0.99-0.81 [-1.18, -0.41]1.51 [1.08, 1.93]35% [19%, 54%]85%96%+0.48+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d26 1 QC1.23 [0.85, 1.63]0.99-0.81 [-1.21, -0.34]1.51 [1.03, 1.94]35% [18%, 61%]85%96%+0.48+0.592026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d31 1 QC1.54 [0.95, 2.33]1.46-0.24 [-1.06, 1.14]2.00 [1.13, 2.89]29% [10%, 48%]77%90%+0.45+0.492026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall31 1 QC1.54 [0.95, 2.26]1.46-0.24 [-1.03, 1.10]2.00 [1.14, 2.84]29% [12%, 50%]77%90%+0.45+0.492026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d26 1 QC1.19 [0.88, 1.56]1.00-0.73 [-1.08, -0.35]1.49 [1.07, 1.92]42% [31%, 57%]85%92%+0.49+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d26 1 QC1.19 [0.85, 1.58]1.00-0.73 [-1.12, -0.28]1.49 [1.03, 1.95]42% [28%, 62%]85%92%+0.49+0.582026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d31 1 QC1.49 [0.94, 2.23]1.43-0.19 [-0.98, 1.12]1.95 [1.14, 2.76]39% [25%, 54%]77%87%+0.47+0.502026-01-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall31 1 QC1.49 [0.93, 2.20]1.43-0.19 [-0.95, 1.09]1.95 [1.09, 2.72]39% [25%, 54%]77%87%+0.47+0.502026-01-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-03: -6.32 °F2026-08-04: -6.82 °F2026-08-05: -5.12 °F2026-08-06: -4.23 °F2026-08-07: -5.18 °F2026-08-08: -4.9 °F2026-08-09: -4.94 °F2026-08-10: -5.31 °F2026-08-11: -7.1 °F2026-08-12: -7.63 °F2026-08-13: -8.38 °F2026-08-14: -8.01 °F2026-08-15: -8 °F2026-08-16: -7.54 °F2026-08-17: -8.57 °F2026-08-18: -6.68 °F2026-08-19: -6.88 °F2026-08-20: -6.13 °F2026-08-21: -2.07 °F2026-08-22: -10.6 °F2026-08-23: -8.78 °F2026-08-24: -8 °F2026-08-25: -3.03 °F2026-08-26: -6.99 °F2026-08-27: -9.02 °F2026-08-30: -6.2 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-6.20
2026-08-29—
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27-9.02
2026-08-26-6.99
2026-08-25-3.03
2026-08-24-8.00
2026-08-23-8.78
2026-08-22-10.60
2026-08-21-2.07
2026-08-20-6.13
2026-08-19-6.88
2026-08-18-6.68
2026-08-17-8.57
2026-08-16-7.54
2026-08-15-8.00
2026-08-14-8.01
2026-08-13-8.38
2026-08-12-7.63
2026-08-11-7.10
2026-08-10-5.31
2026-08-09-4.94
2026-08-08-4.90
2026-08-07-5.18
2026-08-06-4.23
2026-08-05-5.12
2026-08-04-6.82
2026-08-03-6.32

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 2-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 3 days-10 to -8 °F: 7 days-8 to -6 °F: 13 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 7.05 · P90 |e| 9 °F-200+20 °Fn = 32 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.003
-10.00-8.007
-8.00-6.0013
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08266.63 -6.63
2026-0168.73 -8.73

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-03 → 2026-08-30 32
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-03 → 2026-08-30 32
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-03 → 2026-08-30 31
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-03 → 2026-08-30 31

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 26 +3.64 [2.83, 4.49] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 +0.46 [0.46, 0.46] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +1.38 [1.38, 1.38] yes
NCEP GFS 26 +4.68 [3.55, 5.75] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 20 +4.60 [3.35, 5.86] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +1.46 [1.46, 1.46] yes
Persistence (baseline) 26 +4.29 [2.65, 5.76] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence