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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · NCEP GFS · lead day 9

KOKC · gfs · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 2 QC3.14 [2.54, 3.80]3.08+1.41 [-0.63, 3.09]4.09 [3.37, 4.62]29% [6%, 46%]48%57%+0.37+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 2 QC3.14 [2.49, 3.88]3.08+1.41 [-1.05, 3.46]4.09 [3.33, 4.66]29% [0%, 46%]48%57%+0.37+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 2 QC3.14 [2.46, 3.92]3.08+1.41 [-1.33, 3.48]4.09 [3.31, 4.64]29% [0%, 48%]48%57%+0.37+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 2 QC3.14 [2.52, 4.06]3.08+1.41 [-1.27, 3.53]4.09 [3.34, 4.65]29% [0%, 46%]48%57%+0.37+0.372026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 2 QC3.41 [2.64, 4.14]3.11+1.73 [-0.35, 3.43]4.38 [3.47, 5.05]19% [6%, 33%]43%57%+0.32+0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 2 QC3.41 [2.53, 4.22]3.11+1.73 [-0.68, 3.74]4.38 [3.41, 5.14]19% [0%, 35%]43%57%+0.32+0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 2 QC3.41 [2.52, 4.22]3.11+1.73 [-0.99, 3.74]4.38 [3.43, 5.14]19% [0%, 38%]43%57%+0.32+0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 2 QC3.41 [2.56, 4.26]3.11+1.73 [-0.89, 3.68]4.38 [3.42, 5.18]19% [0%, 33%]43%57%+0.32+0.362026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC4.64 [3.55, 5.35]4.67-0.10 [-2.13, 2.04]5.89 [4.33, 6.84]14% [0%, 24%]24%43%+0.07+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC4.64 [3.26, 5.37]4.67-0.10 [-2.55, 2.68]5.89 [3.82, 6.91]14% [0%, 25%]24%43%+0.07+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC4.64 [3.20, 5.50]4.67-0.10 [-2.69, 2.67]5.89 [4.10, 6.99]14% [0%, 29%]24%43%+0.07+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 2 QC4.64 [3.17, 5.37]4.67-0.10 [-2.80, 2.64]5.89 [3.79, 7.05]14% [0%, 27%]24%43%+0.07+0.052026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 2 QC4.80 [3.74, 5.46]4.76+0.14 [-1.86, 2.29]6.00 [4.47, 7.02]14% [0%, 24%]19%38%+0.04+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 2 QC4.80 [3.59, 5.47]4.76+0.14 [-2.39, 2.93]6.00 [4.07, 7.12]14% [0%, 25%]19%38%+0.04+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 2 QC4.80 [3.45, 5.55]4.76+0.14 [-2.54, 2.92]6.00 [4.29, 7.18]14% [0%, 29%]19%38%+0.04+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 2 QC4.80 [3.39, 5.53]4.76+0.14 [-2.58, 2.89]6.00 [3.99, 7.26]14% [0%, 27%]19%38%+0.04+0.032026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 2 QC5.60 [4.61, 7.13]5.59+2.42 [0.60, 5.13]6.95 [5.45, 8.73]5% [0%, 16%]19%29%-0.03-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 2 QC5.60 [4.48, 7.63]5.59+2.42 [0.47, 6.37]6.95 [5.28, 9.26]5% [0%, 20%]19%29%-0.03-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 2 QC5.60 [4.48, 7.59]5.59+2.42 [0.32, 5.79]6.95 [5.16, 9.21]5% [0%, 17%]19%29%-0.03-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 2 QC5.60 [4.50, 7.70]5.59+2.42 [0.42, 6.24]6.95 [5.28, 9.27]5% [0%, 18%]19%29%-0.03-0.172026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 2 QC5.84 [4.78, 7.54]5.86+2.98 [1.11, 5.78]7.42 [5.92, 9.31]14% [4%, 25%]29%33%-0.08-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 2 QC5.84 [4.57, 8.14]5.86+2.98 [0.96, 7.15]7.42 [5.75, 9.91]14% [0%, 27%]29%33%-0.08-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 2 QC5.84 [4.61, 8.21]5.86+2.98 [0.86, 6.43]7.42 [5.68, 9.82]14% [0%, 25%]29%33%-0.08-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 2 QC5.84 [4.63, 8.22]5.86+2.98 [0.89, 6.99]7.42 [5.77, 9.95]14% [0%, 27%]29%33%-0.08-0.232026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC5.49 [4.46, 6.31]4.88+2.07 [-0.26, 4.50]6.31 [5.24, 7.03]5% [0%, 13%]14%29%-0.01-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC5.49 [4.26, 6.40]4.88+2.07 [-0.67, 5.19]6.31 [4.98, 7.15]5% [0%, 14%]14%29%-0.01-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC5.49 [4.36, 6.42]4.88+2.07 [-0.90, 5.31]6.31 [5.18, 7.10]5% [0%, 14%]14%29%-0.01-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 2 QC5.49 [4.33, 6.42]4.88+2.07 [-0.93, 5.60]6.31 [5.12, 7.19]5% [0%, 14%]14%29%-0.01-0.022026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 2 QC5.96 [4.90, 6.85]5.25+2.44 [-0.05, 4.94]6.83 [5.70, 7.54]5% [0%, 13%]14%24%-0.10-0.102026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 2 QC5.96 [4.72, 6.89]5.25+2.44 [-0.44, 5.57]6.83 [5.48, 7.65]5% [0%, 14%]14%24%-0.10-0.102026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 2 QC5.96 [4.77, 6.98]5.25+2.44 [-0.69, 5.79]6.83 [5.64, 7.61]5% [0%, 14%]14%24%-0.10-0.102026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 2 QC5.96 [4.76, 6.96]5.25+2.44 [-0.80, 5.92]6.83 [5.58, 7.60]5% [0%, 14%]14%24%-0.10-0.102026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-10: -1.02 °F2026-08-11: -4.24 °F2026-08-12: +0.74 °F2026-08-13: -7.59 °F2026-08-14: +0.15 °F2026-08-15: +3.15 °F2026-08-16: +0.55 °F2026-08-17: +8.71 °F2026-08-18: +0.87 °F2026-08-19: +2.41 °F2026-08-20: +0.49 °F2026-08-21: +7.97 °F2026-08-22: -1.59 °F2026-08-23: -0.31 °F2026-08-24: -1.9 °F2026-08-25: +5.58 °F2026-08-26: +4.14 °F2026-08-27: -1.57 °F2026-08-28: +2.96 °F2026-08-29: +5.92 °F2026-08-30: +4.17 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.17
2026-08-29+5.92
2026-08-28+2.96
2026-08-27-1.57
2026-08-26+4.14
2026-08-25+5.58
2026-08-24-1.90
2026-08-23-0.31
2026-08-22-1.59
2026-08-21+7.97
2026-08-20+0.49
2026-08-19+2.41
2026-08-18+0.87
2026-08-17+8.71
2026-08-16+0.55
2026-08-15+3.15
2026-08-14+0.15
2026-08-13-7.59
2026-08-12+0.74
2026-08-11-4.24
2026-08-10-1.02

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 9-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.41 · P90 |e| 7.59 °F-100+10 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.002
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08213.14 +1.41

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
NCEP GFS2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 21 -4.02 [-5.59, -2.15] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -7.23 [-9.86, -4.86] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 -0.92 [-1.53, 0.28] no
Persistence (baseline) 21 -1.86 [-4.02, -0.40] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC gfs lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model gfs, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence