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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 9

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d16 2 QC4.06 [2.54, 5.00]4.07+0.12 [-2.45, 1.78]5.82 [3.39, 7.56]25% [12%, 50%]44%56%+0.23+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d16 2 QC4.06 [1.29, 5.02]4.07+0.12 [-3.18, 1.81]5.82 [1.29, 7.77]25% [5%, 50%]44%56%+0.23+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d16 2 QC4.06 [1.29, 5.05]4.07+0.12 [-3.30, 1.85]5.82 [1.29, 7.89]25% [11%, 50%]44%56%+0.23+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall16 2 QC4.06 [1.29, 4.99]4.07+0.12 [-3.21, 2.02]5.82 [1.29, 7.79]25% [10%, 50%]44%56%+0.23+0.222026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d16 2 QC4.12 [2.48, 5.07]4.16+0.28 [-2.43, 1.94]5.96 [3.45, 7.73]38% [18%, 80%]44%56%+0.21+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d16 2 QC4.12 [0.87, 5.08]4.16+0.28 [-3.19, 2.07]5.96 [0.87, 7.94]38% [18%, 100%]44%56%+0.21+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d16 2 QC4.12 [0.87, 5.12]4.16+0.28 [-3.25, 2.07]5.96 [0.87, 8.05]38% [14%, 100%]44%56%+0.21+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall16 2 QC4.12 [0.87, 5.07]4.16+0.28 [-3.30, 2.14]5.96 [0.87, 7.96]38% [15%, 100%]44%56%+0.21+0.212026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d15 2 QC4.31 [3.15, 5.05]3.93-2.60 [-4.01, -1.32]5.27 [3.65, 6.28]13% [0%, 33%]20%40%+0.20+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d15 2 QC4.31 [1.55, 5.00]3.93-2.60 [-3.92, -1.41]5.27 [1.55, 6.26]13% [0%, 33%]20%40%+0.20+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d15 2 QC4.31 [1.55, 5.06]3.93-2.60 [-4.03, -1.22]5.27 [1.55, 6.35]13% [0%, 39%]20%40%+0.20+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall15 2 QC4.31 [1.55, 5.09]3.93-2.60 [-4.27, -1.25]5.27 [1.55, 6.38]13% [0%, 39%]20%40%+0.20+0.282026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d15 2 QC4.32 [3.03, 5.12]3.98-2.66 [-4.03, -1.19]5.43 [3.68, 6.50]13% [0%, 33%]33%33%+0.20+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d15 2 QC4.32 [1.15, 5.11]3.98-2.66 [-3.89, -1.15]5.43 [1.15, 6.53]13% [0%, 33%]33%33%+0.20+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d15 2 QC4.32 [1.15, 5.17]3.98-2.66 [-4.14, -1.15]5.43 [1.15, 6.54]13% [0%, 39%]33%33%+0.20+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall15 2 QC4.32 [1.15, 5.12]3.98-2.66 [-4.18, -1.15]5.43 [1.15, 6.51]13% [0%, 39%]33%33%+0.20+0.272026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d16 2 QC8.70 [8.09, 9.83]2.05+8.70 [8.09, 9.83]9.04 [8.46, 10.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.91+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d16 2 QC8.70 [8.09, 10.50]2.05+8.70 [8.09, 10.50]9.04 [8.44, 10.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.91+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d16 2 QC8.70 [8.08, 10.50]2.05+8.70 [8.08, 10.50]9.04 [8.45, 10.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.91+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall16 2 QC8.70 [8.11, 10.50]2.05+8.70 [8.11, 10.50]9.04 [8.48, 10.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.91+0.552026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d16 2 QC9.76 [9.16, 10.92]2.41+9.76 [9.16, 10.92]10.12 [9.54, 11.08]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.14+0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d16 2 QC9.76 [9.18, 11.42]2.41+9.76 [9.18, 11.42]10.12 [9.56, 11.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.14+0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d16 2 QC9.76 [9.15, 11.42]2.41+9.76 [9.15, 11.42]10.12 [9.53, 11.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.14+0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall16 2 QC9.76 [9.14, 11.42]2.41+9.76 [9.14, 11.42]10.12 [9.55, 11.42]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.14+0.472026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d15 2 QC6.14 [5.15, 7.53]2.65+6.14 [5.15, 7.53]6.94 [5.89, 8.32]7% [0%, 18%]20%27%-0.28+0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d15 2 QC6.14 [5.10, 8.77]2.65+6.14 [5.10, 8.77]6.94 [5.92, 8.77]7% [0%, 20%]20%27%-0.28+0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d15 2 QC6.14 [5.06, 8.77]2.65+6.14 [5.06, 8.77]6.94 [5.79, 8.77]7% [0%, 20%]20%27%-0.28+0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall15 2 QC6.14 [4.89, 8.77]2.65+6.14 [4.89, 8.77]6.94 [5.63, 8.77]7% [0%, 18%]20%27%-0.28+0.452026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d15 2 QC7.01 [5.86, 8.59]2.93+7.01 [5.86, 8.59]7.90 [6.93, 9.22]13% [0%, 30%]20%20%-0.46+0.392026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d15 2 QC7.01 [5.86, 9.87]2.93+7.01 [5.86, 9.87]7.90 [6.88, 9.87]13% [0%, 30%]20%20%-0.46+0.392026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d15 2 QC7.01 [5.81, 9.87]2.93+7.01 [5.81, 9.87]7.90 [6.84, 9.87]13% [0%, 33%]20%20%-0.46+0.392026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall15 2 QC7.01 [5.67, 9.87]2.93+7.01 [5.67, 9.87]7.90 [6.67, 9.87]13% [0%, 33%]20%20%-0.46+0.392026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -1.29 °F2026-08-16: -0.25 °F2026-08-17: +6.98 °F2026-08-18: -6.6 °F2026-08-19: +3.85 °F2026-08-20: -2.91 °F2026-08-21: -2.1 °F2026-08-22: +6.71 °F2026-08-23: -0.01 °F2026-08-24: -3.97 °F2026-08-25: +1.91 °F2026-08-26: +12.29 °F2026-08-27: +1.21 °F2026-08-28: +0.47 °F2026-08-29: -14.24 °F2026-08-30: -0.16 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.16
2026-08-29-14.24
2026-08-28+0.47
2026-08-27+1.21
2026-08-26+12.29
2026-08-25+1.91
2026-08-24-3.97
2026-08-23-0.01
2026-08-22+6.71
2026-08-21-2.10
2026-08-20-2.91
2026-08-19+3.85
2026-08-18-6.60
2026-08-17+6.98
2026-08-16-0.25
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10-1.29

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 2 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 1 day14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.5 · P90 |e| 9.63 °F-200+20 °Fn = 16 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.002
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.001
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08164.06 +0.12

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 16
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 15

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 16 -2.74 [-4.51, -0.79] yes
NCEP GFS 16 +0.92 [-0.28, 1.53] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 16 -5.61 [-9.85, -3.41] yes
Persistence (baseline) 16 -1.19 [-8.21, 0.28] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence