Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 9

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 9

Target day = initialization date + 9 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d21 2 QC7.16 [5.99, 8.37]4.88-5.28 [-8.20, -1.51]8.68 [6.97, 10.10]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.43+0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d21 2 QC7.16 [5.76, 8.49]4.88-5.28 [-8.47, -1.01]8.68 [6.29, 10.28]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.43+0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d21 2 QC7.16 [5.80, 8.52]4.88-5.28 [-8.45, -1.04]8.68 [6.57, 10.24]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.43+0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall21 2 QC7.16 [5.79, 8.44]4.88-5.28 [-8.44, -1.00]8.68 [6.17, 10.20]0% [0%, 0%]14%14%-0.43+0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d21 2 QC7.20 [6.02, 8.42]4.91-5.32 [-8.27, -1.56]8.75 [6.99, 10.23]5% [0%, 14%]14%14%-0.44-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d21 2 QC7.20 [5.66, 8.52]4.91-5.32 [-8.51, -1.03]8.75 [6.24, 10.44]5% [0%, 18%]14%14%-0.44-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d21 2 QC7.20 [5.77, 8.57]4.91-5.32 [-8.47, -1.03]8.75 [6.52, 10.35]5% [0%, 17%]14%14%-0.44-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall21 2 QC7.20 [5.79, 8.46]4.91-5.32 [-8.46, -0.99]8.75 [6.22, 10.37]5% [0%, 17%]14%14%-0.44-0.002026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC6.81 [4.37, 9.24]3.70-6.77 [-9.20, -4.35]8.31 [5.28, 10.58]10% [0%, 18%]14%24%-0.36+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC6.81 [4.08, 9.49]3.70-6.77 [-9.47, -4.06]8.31 [4.93, 10.76]10% [0%, 20%]14%24%-0.36+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC6.81 [4.04, 9.63]3.70-6.77 [-9.60, -4.04]8.31 [4.94, 10.90]10% [0%, 20%]14%24%-0.36+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall21 2 QC6.81 [4.09, 9.39]3.70-6.77 [-9.39, -4.09]8.31 [5.00, 10.61]10% [0%, 18%]14%24%-0.36+0.252026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d21 2 QC6.89 [4.49, 9.29]3.73-6.83 [-9.25, -4.43]8.39 [5.38, 10.67]10% [0%, 18%]14%29%-0.38+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d21 2 QC6.89 [4.16, 9.54]3.73-6.83 [-9.52, -4.15]8.39 [5.01, 10.84]10% [0%, 20%]14%29%-0.38+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d21 2 QC6.89 [4.14, 9.68]3.73-6.83 [-9.64, -4.14]8.39 [5.02, 10.94]10% [0%, 20%]14%29%-0.38+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall21 2 QC6.89 [4.18, 9.45]3.73-6.83 [-9.44, -4.17]8.39 [5.10, 10.76]10% [0%, 18%]14%29%-0.38+0.242026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d21 2 QC4.64 [3.15, 5.88]4.06+2.06 [0.15, 4.36]5.52 [4.06, 6.65]14% [4%, 33%]19%38%+0.14+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d21 2 QC4.64 [2.84, 6.01]4.06+2.06 [-0.19, 5.02]5.52 [3.74, 6.76]14% [4%, 40%]19%38%+0.14+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d21 2 QC4.64 [3.05, 6.09]4.06+2.06 [-0.14, 5.01]5.52 [3.83, 6.88]14% [0%, 38%]19%38%+0.14+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall21 2 QC4.64 [2.85, 6.08]4.06+2.06 [-0.13, 5.21]5.52 [3.80, 6.82]14% [0%, 41%]19%38%+0.14+0.152026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d21 2 QC4.72 [3.20, 6.00]4.16+2.10 [0.16, 4.46]5.64 [4.13, 6.78]14% [4%, 33%]19%38%+0.13+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d21 2 QC4.72 [2.88, 6.10]4.16+2.10 [-0.15, 5.13]5.64 [3.81, 6.89]14% [4%, 40%]19%38%+0.13+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d21 2 QC4.72 [3.07, 6.26]4.16+2.10 [-0.08, 5.14]5.64 [3.90, 7.04]14% [0%, 38%]19%38%+0.13+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall21 2 QC4.72 [2.89, 6.19]4.16+2.10 [-0.07, 5.33]5.64 [3.84, 6.93]14% [0%, 41%]19%38%+0.13+0.132026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d21 2 QC2.44 [1.84, 3.02]2.24+1.77 [1.17, 2.39]3.30 [2.35, 3.94]29% [18%, 44%]57%76%+0.55+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d21 2 QC2.44 [1.74, 3.12]2.24+1.77 [1.14, 2.40]3.30 [2.19, 4.06]29% [18%, 50%]57%76%+0.55+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d21 2 QC2.44 [1.75, 3.16]2.24+1.77 [1.06, 2.39]3.30 [2.20, 4.06]29% [14%, 50%]57%76%+0.55+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall21 2 QC2.44 [1.74, 3.09]2.24+1.77 [1.05, 2.40]3.30 [2.22, 4.06]29% [14%, 50%]57%76%+0.55+0.532026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d21 2 QC2.52 [1.90, 3.11]2.37+1.81 [1.19, 2.41]3.42 [2.52, 4.04]33% [23%, 50%]52%62%+0.54+0.502026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d21 2 QC2.52 [1.79, 3.22]2.37+1.81 [1.17, 2.44]3.42 [2.30, 4.11]33% [24%, 50%]52%62%+0.54+0.502026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d21 2 QC2.52 [1.80, 3.21]2.37+1.81 [1.14, 2.42]3.42 [2.31, 4.15]33% [23%, 50%]52%62%+0.54+0.502026-08-10 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall21 2 QC2.52 [1.78, 3.16]2.37+1.81 [1.08, 2.46]3.42 [2.31, 4.10]33% [21%, 50%]52%62%+0.54+0.502026-08-10 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 9, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-10: -5.76 °F2026-08-11: -11.15 °F2026-08-12: -4.96 °F2026-08-13: -19.99 °F2026-08-14: -3.83 °F2026-08-15: -1.71 °F2026-08-16: -9.18 °F2026-08-17: -3.65 °F2026-08-18: -8.53 °F2026-08-19: -15.31 °F2026-08-20: -3.51 °F2026-08-21: -3.78 °F2026-08-22: -6.42 °F2026-08-23: -1.6 °F2026-08-24: -15.41 °F2026-08-25: -3.58 °F2026-08-26: +10.85 °F2026-08-27: +7.79 °F2026-08-28: +1.09 °F2026-08-29: -6.62 °F2026-08-30: -5.69 °F2026-08-102026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (21 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.69
2026-08-29-6.62
2026-08-28+1.09
2026-08-27+7.79
2026-08-26+10.85
2026-08-25-3.58
2026-08-24-15.41
2026-08-23-1.60
2026-08-22-6.42
2026-08-21-3.78
2026-08-20-3.51
2026-08-19-15.31
2026-08-18-8.53
2026-08-17-3.65
2026-08-16-9.18
2026-08-15-1.71
2026-08-14-3.83
2026-08-13-19.99
2026-08-12-4.96
2026-08-11-11.15
2026-08-10-5.76

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 9-20 to -18 °F: 1 day-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 2 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 2 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 5.76 · P90 |e| 15.31 °F-200+20 °Fn = 21 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.001
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.002
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.002
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08217.16 -5.28

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-10 → 2026-08-30 21

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 21 +4.02 [2.15, 5.59] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -3.21 [-6.41, -0.75] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 16 +2.74 [0.79, 4.51] yes
Persistence (baseline) 21 +2.16 [0.06, 3.60] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 9, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 9. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/9/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence