Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KDFW · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.19 [1.52, 3.05]2.08+0.43 [-1.10, 1.55]2.84 [1.82, 3.96]28% [11%, 46%]48%80%+0.23+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.19 [1.50, 3.26]2.08+0.43 [-1.50, 1.58]2.84 [1.83, 4.19]28% [8%, 46%]48%80%+0.23+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.19 [1.42, 3.28]2.08+0.43 [-1.61, 1.66]2.84 [1.79, 4.19]28% [6%, 50%]48%80%+0.23+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.19 [1.47, 3.23]2.08+0.43 [-1.43, 1.62]2.84 [1.82, 4.08]28% [7%, 44%]48%80%+0.23+0.252026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.24 [1.57, 3.07]2.12+0.52 [-1.03, 1.61]2.93 [2.00, 3.98]28% [11%, 46%]48%80%+0.21+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.24 [1.58, 3.22]2.12+0.52 [-1.39, 1.65]2.93 [1.98, 4.17]28% [8%, 46%]48%80%+0.21+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.24 [1.53, 3.21]2.12+0.52 [-1.59, 1.69]2.93 [1.95, 4.19]28% [6%, 50%]48%80%+0.21+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC2.24 [1.55, 3.21]2.12+0.52 [-1.37, 1.69]2.93 [1.93, 4.09]28% [7%, 44%]48%80%+0.21+0.242026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC1.42 [0.92, 1.84]1.33+0.87 [0.05, 1.58]1.84 [1.38, 2.12]48% [20%, 78%]68%92%+0.50+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC1.42 [0.83, 1.86]1.33+0.87 [-0.03, 1.59]1.84 [1.30, 2.13]48% [20%, 85%]68%92%+0.50+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC1.42 [0.76, 1.89]1.33+0.87 [-0.08, 1.65]1.84 [1.20, 2.13]48% [17%, 88%]68%92%+0.50+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 1 QC1.42 [0.87, 1.90]1.33+0.87 [-0.33, 1.63]1.84 [1.26, 2.15]48% [18%, 84%]68%92%+0.50+0.522026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC1.30 [0.76, 1.76]1.27+0.85 [0.18, 1.53]1.79 [1.31, 2.08]56% [35%, 80%]64%92%+0.54+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC1.30 [0.66, 1.82]1.27+0.85 [0.00, 1.54]1.79 [1.19, 2.10]56% [33%, 85%]64%92%+0.54+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 1 QC1.30 [0.61, 1.80]1.27+0.85 [-0.01, 1.59]1.79 [1.11, 2.10]56% [32%, 88%]64%92%+0.54+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 1 QC1.30 [0.71, 1.81]1.27+0.85 [-0.03, 1.58]1.79 [1.18, 2.13]56% [32%, 84%]64%92%+0.54+0.552026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.86 [2.44, 3.34]1.61+2.72 [2.25, 3.23]3.35 [2.93, 3.82]16% [4%, 28%]40%56%-0.12+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.86 [2.37, 3.39]1.61+2.72 [2.17, 3.26]3.35 [2.82, 3.88]16% [0%, 29%]40%56%-0.12+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.86 [2.41, 3.49]1.61+2.72 [2.22, 3.38]3.35 [2.87, 4.02]16% [0%, 29%]40%56%-0.12+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.86 [2.38, 3.48]1.61+2.72 [2.23, 3.41]3.35 [2.86, 3.91]16% [0%, 29%]40%56%-0.12+0.382026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC3.49 [2.94, 4.06]1.52+3.49 [2.94, 4.06]3.95 [3.48, 4.41]12% [0%, 26%]16%40%-0.36+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC3.49 [2.82, 4.09]1.52+3.49 [2.82, 4.09]3.95 [3.39, 4.48]12% [0%, 29%]16%40%-0.36+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC3.49 [2.88, 4.19]1.52+3.49 [2.87, 4.19]3.95 [3.40, 4.59]12% [0%, 29%]16%40%-0.36+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC3.49 [2.91, 4.24]1.52+3.49 [2.91, 4.23]3.95 [3.45, 4.57]12% [0%, 28%]16%40%-0.36+0.422026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.01 [2.53, 3.50]1.37+3.01 [2.53, 3.50]3.45 [2.93, 3.95]12% [0%, 26%]24%60%-0.18+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.01 [2.47, 3.60]1.37+3.01 [2.47, 3.60]3.45 [2.88, 4.06]12% [0%, 29%]24%60%-0.18+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.01 [2.50, 3.68]1.37+3.01 [2.50, 3.68]3.45 [2.96, 4.16]12% [0%, 29%]24%60%-0.18+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.01 [2.50, 3.54]1.37+3.01 [2.50, 3.54]3.45 [2.91, 3.99]12% [0%, 29%]24%60%-0.18+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC3.56 [3.12, 4.02]1.36+3.56 [3.12, 4.02]3.95 [3.48, 4.48]8% [0%, 18%]20%36%-0.39+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC3.56 [3.06, 4.08]1.36+3.56 [3.06, 4.08]3.95 [3.39, 4.55]8% [0%, 19%]20%36%-0.39+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 1 QC3.56 [3.09, 4.10]1.36+3.56 [3.09, 4.10]3.95 [3.45, 4.60]8% [0%, 19%]20%36%-0.39+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 1 QC3.56 [3.05, 4.03]1.36+3.56 [3.05, 4.03]3.95 [3.36, 4.46]8% [0%, 19%]20%36%-0.39+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: +1.79 °F2026-08-07: -3.89 °F2026-08-08: -0.7 °F2026-08-09: +2.05 °F2026-08-10: +2.19 °F2026-08-11: +2.25 °F2026-08-12: +2.41 °F2026-08-13: +2.62 °F2026-08-14: +1.71 °F2026-08-15: +1.83 °F2026-08-16: +0.99 °F2026-08-17: +0.55 °F2026-08-18: +2.26 °F2026-08-19: +0.07 °F2026-08-20: +0.15 °F2026-08-21: +2.77 °F2026-08-22: +3.11 °F2026-08-23: +0.1 °F2026-08-24: -1.57 °F2026-08-25: +3.68 °F2026-08-26: -0.58 °F2026-08-27: -5.33 °F2026-08-28: -8.6 °F2026-08-29: -1.38 °F2026-08-30: +2.2 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.20
2026-08-29-1.38
2026-08-28-8.60
2026-08-27-5.33
2026-08-26-0.58
2026-08-25+3.68
2026-08-24-1.57
2026-08-23+0.10
2026-08-22+3.11
2026-08-21+2.77
2026-08-20+0.15
2026-08-19+0.07
2026-08-18+2.26
2026-08-17+0.55
2026-08-16+0.99
2026-08-15+1.83
2026-08-14+1.71
2026-08-13+2.62
2026-08-12+2.41
2026-08-11+2.25
2026-08-10+2.19
2026-08-09+2.05
2026-08-08-0.70
2026-08-07-3.89
2026-08-06+1.79

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 8 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.05 · P90 |e| 3.8 °F-100+10 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.008
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08252.19 +0.43

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -1.47 [-3.81, 0.06] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -5.29 [-6.63, -3.93] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.24 [-0.79, 1.43] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 -0.65 [-1.69, 0.37] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence