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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC3.66 [2.43, 5.53]2.47-3.16 [-5.39, -1.95]4.86 [2.80, 7.39]4% [0%, 11%]32%56%-0.29+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC3.66 [2.36, 6.14]2.47-3.16 [-5.99, -1.90]4.86 [2.76, 8.02]4% [0%, 11%]32%56%-0.29+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC3.66 [2.34, 5.94]2.47-3.16 [-5.72, -1.84]4.86 [2.69, 7.78]4% [0%, 12%]32%56%-0.29+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 1 QC3.66 [2.29, 6.11]2.47-3.16 [-5.93, -1.82]4.86 [2.63, 7.89]4% [0%, 12%]32%56%-0.29+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC4.13 [2.90, 6.10]2.49-3.73 [-5.96, -2.49]5.25 [3.24, 7.83]0% [0%, 0%]12%48%-0.46+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC4.13 [2.84, 6.72]2.49-3.73 [-6.60, -2.43]5.25 [3.17, 8.43]0% [0%, 0%]12%48%-0.46+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 1 QC4.13 [2.82, 6.49]2.49-3.73 [-6.32, -2.41]5.25 [3.15, 8.23]0% [0%, 0%]12%48%-0.46+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 1 QC4.13 [2.77, 6.70]2.49-3.73 [-6.54, -2.37]5.25 [3.07, 8.33]0% [0%, 0%]12%48%-0.46+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.60 [2.69, 5.07]1.92-3.21 [-4.94, -2.33]4.31 [2.88, 6.32]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%-0.25+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.60 [2.69, 5.58]1.92-3.21 [-5.44, -2.31]4.31 [2.89, 6.80]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%-0.25+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.60 [2.55, 5.29]1.92-3.21 [-5.28, -2.28]4.31 [2.80, 6.56]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%-0.25+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.60 [2.59, 5.47]1.92-3.21 [-5.44, -2.22]4.31 [2.85, 6.73]0% [0%, 0%]21%46%-0.25+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.07 [3.15, 5.65]1.95-3.77 [-5.55, -2.87]4.77 [3.34, 6.86]0% [0%, 0%]8%42%-0.42+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.07 [3.17, 6.17]1.95-3.77 [-6.08, -2.83]4.77 [3.35, 7.37]0% [0%, 0%]8%42%-0.42+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.07 [3.02, 5.99]1.95-3.77 [-5.93, -2.80]4.77 [3.25, 7.13]0% [0%, 0%]8%42%-0.42+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.07 [3.08, 6.05]1.95-3.77 [-6.01, -2.74]4.77 [3.29, 7.27]0% [0%, 0%]8%42%-0.42+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.07 [1.44, 2.75]1.69-1.54 [-2.33, -0.86]2.56 [1.85, 3.19]32% [14%, 52%]56%76%+0.19+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.07 [1.45, 2.97]1.69-1.54 [-2.59, -0.77]2.56 [1.88, 3.41]32% [11%, 54%]56%76%+0.19+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 1 QC2.07 [1.39, 3.00]1.69-1.54 [-2.71, -0.74]2.56 [1.77, 3.39]32% [11%, 56%]56%76%+0.19+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 1 QC2.07 [1.36, 3.03]1.69-1.54 [-2.72, -0.70]2.56 [1.75, 3.51]32% [12%, 55%]56%76%+0.19+0.352026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC2.22 [1.57, 2.95]1.73-1.80 [-2.64, -1.08]2.76 [1.99, 3.44]32% [15%, 48%]52%72%+0.13+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC2.22 [1.59, 3.21]1.73-1.80 [-2.91, -1.00]2.76 [2.03, 3.70]32% [13%, 50%]52%72%+0.13+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 1 QC2.22 [1.51, 3.23]1.73-1.80 [-3.02, -0.94]2.76 [1.89, 3.68]32% [12%, 50%]52%72%+0.13+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 1 QC2.22 [1.48, 3.28]1.73-1.80 [-3.03, -0.93]2.76 [1.87, 3.81]32% [14%, 50%]52%72%+0.13+0.342026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.10 [1.55, 2.60]1.38-1.79 [-2.45, -1.15]2.44 [1.80, 2.91]29% [15%, 43%]50%71%+0.19+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.10 [1.45, 2.73]1.38-1.79 [-2.55, -1.02]2.44 [1.70, 3.04]29% [13%, 46%]50%71%+0.19+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.10 [1.42, 2.72]1.38-1.79 [-2.59, -0.99]2.44 [1.69, 3.02]29% [12%, 47%]50%71%+0.19+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.10 [1.45, 2.68]1.38-1.79 [-2.54, -0.96]2.44 [1.68, 2.99]29% [14%, 46%]50%71%+0.19+0.482026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.24 [1.68, 2.78]1.40-2.00 [-2.68, -1.34]2.62 [1.95, 3.11]25% [12%, 40%]46%71%+0.13+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.24 [1.58, 2.92]1.40-2.00 [-2.79, -1.23]2.62 [1.87, 3.25]25% [10%, 45%]46%71%+0.13+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.24 [1.55, 2.93]1.40-2.00 [-2.85, -1.19]2.62 [1.82, 3.23]25% [10%, 44%]46%71%+0.13+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.24 [1.55, 2.87]1.40-2.00 [-2.79, -1.16]2.62 [1.81, 3.20]25% [11%, 44%]46%71%+0.13+0.472026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -3.68 °F2026-08-07: -14.32 °F2026-08-08: -12.19 °F2026-08-09: -1.49 °F2026-08-10: -1.55 °F2026-08-11: -1.07 °F2026-08-12: -0.7 °F2026-08-13: -1.11 °F2026-08-14: -1.76 °F2026-08-15: -1.79 °F2026-08-16: -2.61 °F2026-08-17: -3.57 °F2026-08-18: -2.09 °F2026-08-19: -4.17 °F2026-08-20: -4.73 °F2026-08-21: +3.62 °F2026-08-22: -2.06 °F2026-08-23: -4.23 °F2026-08-24: -5.29 °F2026-08-25: +2.66 °F2026-08-26: -1.5 °F2026-08-27: -2.61 °F2026-08-28: -3.25 °F2026-08-29: -7.09 °F2026-08-30: -2.43 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.43
2026-08-29-7.09
2026-08-28-3.25
2026-08-27-2.61
2026-08-26-1.50
2026-08-25+2.66
2026-08-24-5.29
2026-08-23-4.23
2026-08-22-2.06
2026-08-21+3.62
2026-08-20-4.73
2026-08-19-4.17
2026-08-18-2.09
2026-08-17-3.57
2026-08-16-2.61
2026-08-15-1.79
2026-08-14-1.76
2026-08-13-1.11
2026-08-12-0.70
2026-08-11-1.07
2026-08-10-1.55
2026-08-09-1.49
2026-08-08-12.19
2026-08-07-14.32
2026-08-06-3.68

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to 0 °F: 8 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.61 · P90 |e| 6.37 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.004
-4.00-2.008
-2.00+0.008
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.66 -3.16

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +1.47 [-0.06, 3.81] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -3.82 [-5.47, -0.66] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.21 [0.72, 2.11] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.82 [-0.40, 3.60] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence