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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC1.96 [0.99, 2.60]1.53-1.41 [-2.22, -0.41]2.55 [1.10, 3.21]33% [18%, 56%]72%72%+0.38+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC1.96 [0.89, 2.63]1.53-1.41 [-2.31, -0.07]2.55 [0.89, 3.21]33% [14%, 67%]72%72%+0.38+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC1.96 [0.89, 2.69]1.53-1.41 [-2.45, -0.15]2.55 [0.89, 3.25]33% [14%, 71%]72%72%+0.38+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC1.96 [0.89, 2.64]1.53-1.41 [-2.34, -0.21]2.55 [0.89, 3.24]33% [15%, 67%]72%72%+0.38+0.512026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC2.32 [1.25, 3.00]1.48-1.95 [-2.77, -0.83]2.81 [1.42, 3.49]22% [11%, 43%]56%78%+0.27+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC2.32 [0.91, 3.05]1.48-1.95 [-2.83, -0.46]2.81 [1.01, 3.49]22% [10%, 56%]56%78%+0.27+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC2.32 [0.89, 3.07]1.48-1.95 [-2.96, -0.42]2.81 [0.98, 3.55]22% [9%, 51%]56%78%+0.27+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC2.32 [0.96, 3.03]1.48-1.95 [-2.88, -0.58]2.81 [1.06, 3.53]22% [11%, 50%]56%78%+0.27+0.532026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC2.35 [1.19, 3.17]1.90-1.38 [-2.46, -0.33]2.92 [1.55, 3.70]20% [4%, 50%]50%75%+0.25+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC2.35 [0.70, 3.44]1.90-1.38 [-2.68, -0.13]2.92 [0.96, 3.92]20% [0%, 71%]50%75%+0.25+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC2.35 [0.52, 3.46]1.90-1.38 [-2.62, 0.05]2.92 [0.74, 3.92]20% [0%, 80%]50%75%+0.25+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 1 QC2.35 [0.71, 3.45]1.90-1.38 [-2.62, 0.11]2.92 [0.98, 3.85]20% [0%, 67%]50%75%+0.25+0.372026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 1 QC2.49 [1.37, 3.30]1.84-1.64 [-2.70, -0.61]3.02 [1.64, 3.85]20% [4%, 50%]45%75%+0.21+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 1 QC2.49 [0.90, 3.57]1.84-1.64 [-2.99, -0.34]3.02 [1.12, 4.06]20% [0%, 71%]45%75%+0.21+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 1 QC2.49 [0.69, 3.60]1.84-1.64 [-2.94, -0.23]3.02 [0.82, 4.06]20% [0%, 80%]45%75%+0.21+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 1 QC2.49 [0.95, 3.47]1.84-1.64 [-2.82, -0.23]3.02 [1.16, 3.98]20% [0%, 67%]45%75%+0.21+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.20 [1.84, 4.12]1.31+3.20 [1.82, 4.12]3.58 [2.17, 4.36]11% [0%, 36%]17%50%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.20 [1.69, 4.22]1.31+3.20 [1.67, 4.22]3.58 [2.01, 4.47]11% [0%, 40%]17%50%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.20 [1.62, 4.30]1.31+3.20 [1.60, 4.30]3.58 [1.90, 4.52]11% [0%, 42%]17%50%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.20 [1.55, 4.31]1.31+3.20 [1.53, 4.31]3.58 [1.85, 4.54]11% [0%, 40%]17%50%-0.48+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.40 [2.12, 4.29]1.32+3.40 [2.12, 4.29]3.76 [2.42, 4.56]6% [0%, 18%]17%44%-0.57+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.40 [2.00, 4.42]1.32+3.40 [2.00, 4.42]3.76 [2.28, 4.67]6% [0%, 20%]17%44%-0.57+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.40 [1.93, 4.44]1.32+3.40 [1.93, 4.44]3.76 [2.16, 4.73]6% [0%, 21%]17%44%-0.57+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.40 [1.86, 4.44]1.32+3.40 [1.86, 4.44]3.76 [2.10, 4.72]6% [0%, 20%]17%44%-0.57+0.402026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 1 QC3.12 [1.80, 3.98]1.53+3.12 [1.80, 3.98]3.61 [2.26, 4.33]10% [0%, 29%]35%50%-0.52+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 1 QC3.12 [1.63, 4.02]1.53+3.12 [1.63, 4.02]3.61 [2.08, 4.36]10% [0%, 33%]35%50%-0.52+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 1 QC3.12 [1.60, 4.07]1.53+3.12 [1.58, 4.07]3.61 [2.05, 4.41]10% [0%, 33%]35%50%-0.52+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 1 QC3.12 [1.63, 4.08]1.53+3.12 [1.63, 4.08]3.61 [2.04, 4.42]10% [0%, 33%]35%50%-0.52+0.262026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 1 QC3.37 [2.12, 4.21]1.42+3.37 [2.12, 4.21]3.79 [2.47, 4.51]10% [0%, 29%]20%45%-0.65+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 1 QC3.37 [1.95, 4.22]1.42+3.37 [1.95, 4.22]3.79 [2.29, 4.52]10% [0%, 33%]20%45%-0.65+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 1 QC3.37 [1.89, 4.28]1.42+3.37 [1.89, 4.28]3.79 [2.29, 4.57]10% [0%, 33%]20%45%-0.65+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 1 QC3.37 [1.95, 4.33]1.42+3.37 [1.95, 4.33]3.79 [2.27, 4.60]10% [0%, 33%]20%45%-0.65+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: +0.89 °F2026-08-12: -1.18 °F2026-08-13: -0.16 °F2026-08-14: -0.77 °F2026-08-16: -1.17 °F2026-08-17: -1.95 °F2026-08-19: -1.92 °F2026-08-20: -0.35 °F2026-08-21: +3.84 °F2026-08-22: -0.78 °F2026-08-23: -5.22 °F2026-08-24: -5.13 °F2026-08-25: +0.17 °F2026-08-26: -1.12 °F2026-08-27: -1.53 °F2026-08-28: -3.51 °F2026-08-29: -4.36 °F2026-08-30: -1.19 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.19
2026-08-29-4.36
2026-08-28-3.51
2026-08-27-1.53
2026-08-26-1.12
2026-08-25+0.17
2026-08-24-5.13
2026-08-23-5.22
2026-08-22-0.78
2026-08-21+3.84
2026-08-20-0.35
2026-08-19-1.92
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17-1.95
2026-08-16-1.17
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-0.77
2026-08-13-0.16
2026-08-12-1.18
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06+0.89

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.18 · P90 |e| 4.59 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08181.96 -1.41

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.21 [-2.11, -0.72] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -0.24 [-1.43, 0.79] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -5.99 [-6.96, -5.04] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -1.21 [-1.73, -0.67] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence