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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 5

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC7.48 [6.31, 8.57]2.46-7.48 [-8.57, -6.31]8.03 [6.73, 9.07]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.63+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC7.48 [6.19, 8.73]2.46-7.48 [-8.73, -6.19]8.03 [6.50, 9.27]0% [0%, 0%]4%8%-1.63+0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d31 1 QC7.71 [6.47, 9.02]2.88-7.50 [-8.82, -6.21]8.34 [6.92, 9.68]0% [0%, 0%]3%6%-0.80+0.332026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall31 1 QC7.71 [6.47, 8.89]2.88-7.50 [-8.73, -6.27]8.34 [6.82, 9.53]0% [0%, 0%]3%6%-0.80+0.332026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 1 QC7.81 [6.70, 8.87]2.44-7.81 [-8.87, -6.70]8.32 [7.12, 9.31]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.75+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 1 QC7.81 [6.60, 9.00]2.44-7.81 [-9.00, -6.60]8.32 [6.95, 9.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.75+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d31 1 QC8.01 [6.82, 9.33]2.87-7.82 [-9.13, -6.53]8.64 [7.27, 9.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%-0.87+0.332026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall31 1 QC8.01 [6.83, 9.20]2.87-7.82 [-9.04, -6.58]8.64 [7.21, 9.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%3%-0.87+0.332026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC7.91 [6.55, 9.19]2.52-7.91 [-9.19, -6.55]8.46 [6.98, 9.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.79+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC7.91 [6.31, 9.34]2.52-7.91 [-9.34, -6.31]8.46 [6.58, 9.88]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.79+0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d30 1 QC7.93 [6.54, 9.20]2.88-7.83 [-9.12, -6.35]8.56 [7.10, 9.72]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.07+0.232026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall30 1 QC7.93 [6.53, 9.14]2.88-7.83 [-9.08, -6.32]8.56 [6.99, 9.63]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.07+0.232026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 1 QC8.23 [6.89, 9.48]2.48-8.23 [-9.48, -6.89]8.75 [7.32, 9.88]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.90+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 1 QC8.23 [6.64, 9.63]2.48-8.23 [-9.63, -6.64]8.75 [6.98, 10.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.90+0.112026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d30 1 QC8.25 [6.86, 9.52]2.87-8.17 [-9.45, -6.71]8.88 [7.45, 10.06]0% [0%, 0%]3%7%-1.15+0.232026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall30 1 QC8.25 [6.86, 9.52]2.87-8.17 [-9.42, -6.67]8.88 [7.34, 9.97]0% [0%, 0%]3%7%-1.15+0.232026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 1 QC1.97 [1.26, 2.85]1.83-1.21 [-2.44, 0.00]2.69 [1.51, 3.66]36% [23%, 50%]64%80%+0.23+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 1 QC1.97 [1.17, 3.17]1.83-1.21 [-2.81, 0.17]2.69 [1.38, 3.98]36% [20%, 52%]64%80%+0.23+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d31 1 QC2.26 [1.31, 3.42]2.23-0.30 [-2.03, 1.72]3.10 [1.58, 4.25]35% [21%, 50%]61%74%+0.42+0.432026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall31 1 QC2.26 [1.39, 3.39]2.23-0.30 [-1.95, 1.84]3.10 [1.68, 4.24]35% [21%, 50%]61%74%+0.42+0.432026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 1 QC1.96 [1.29, 2.80]1.80-1.20 [-2.46, 0.01]2.67 [1.53, 3.62]32% [20%, 44%]64%80%+0.23+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 1 QC1.96 [1.19, 3.13]1.80-1.20 [-2.82, 0.18]2.67 [1.41, 3.92]32% [18%, 45%]64%80%+0.23+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d31 1 QC2.23 [1.33, 3.34]2.20-0.32 [-2.03, 1.65]3.02 [1.61, 4.12]32% [19%, 47%]61%74%+0.43+0.442026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall31 1 QC2.23 [1.42, 3.30]2.20-0.32 [-1.95, 1.77]3.02 [1.70, 4.11]32% [20%, 46%]61%74%+0.43+0.442026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 1 QC2.27 [1.55, 3.12]1.78-1.75 [-3.01, -0.47]2.90 [1.74, 3.87]24% [8%, 38%]56%76%+0.11+0.322026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 1 QC2.27 [1.41, 3.41]1.78-1.75 [-3.36, -0.24]2.90 [1.63, 4.12]24% [7%, 39%]56%76%+0.11+0.322026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.61 [1.60, 3.84]2.39-0.80 [-2.71, 1.58]3.35 [1.84, 4.52]23% [9%, 36%]53%70%+0.25+0.332026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.61 [1.65, 3.85]2.39-0.80 [-2.62, 1.66]3.35 [1.94, 4.57]23% [10%, 38%]53%70%+0.25+0.332026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 1 QC2.26 [1.54, 3.09]1.75-1.73 [-2.98, -0.44]2.87 [1.73, 3.81]24% [8%, 38%]56%80%+0.12+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 1 QC2.26 [1.42, 3.38]1.75-1.73 [-3.32, -0.22]2.87 [1.63, 4.05]24% [7%, 39%]56%80%+0.12+0.332026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d30 1 QC2.57 [1.60, 3.72]2.33-0.81 [-2.68, 1.51]3.26 [1.81, 4.35]23% [9%, 36%]50%73%+0.27+0.352026-01-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall30 1 QC2.57 [1.65, 3.74]2.33-0.81 [-2.60, 1.57]3.26 [1.93, 4.37]23% [10%, 38%]50%73%+0.27+0.352026-01-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -5.93 °F2026-08-07: -9.31 °F2026-08-08: -5.54 °F2026-08-09: -3.76 °F2026-08-10: -4.16 °F2026-08-11: -5.36 °F2026-08-12: -5.17 °F2026-08-13: -6.46 °F2026-08-14: -7.93 °F2026-08-15: -8.48 °F2026-08-16: -10 °F2026-08-17: -9.34 °F2026-08-18: -7.38 °F2026-08-19: -8.24 °F2026-08-20: -8.56 °F2026-08-21: -3.25 °F2026-08-22: -9.4 °F2026-08-23: -12.15 °F2026-08-24: -12.15 °F2026-08-25: -2.91 °F2026-08-26: -1.64 °F2026-08-27: -8.97 °F2026-08-28: -10.59 °F2026-08-29: -12.11 °F2026-08-30: -8.24 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.24
2026-08-29-12.11
2026-08-28-10.59
2026-08-27-8.97
2026-08-26-1.64
2026-08-25-2.91
2026-08-24-12.15
2026-08-23-12.15
2026-08-22-9.40
2026-08-21-3.25
2026-08-20-8.56
2026-08-19-8.24
2026-08-18-7.38
2026-08-17-9.34
2026-08-16-10.00
2026-08-15-8.48
2026-08-14-7.93
2026-08-13-6.46
2026-08-12-5.17
2026-08-11-5.36
2026-08-10-4.16
2026-08-09-3.76
2026-08-08-5.54
2026-08-07-9.31
2026-08-06-5.93

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 4 days-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 10 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 8.24 · P90 |e| 12.15 °F-200+20 °Fn = 31 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.004
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.0010
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08257.48 -7.48
2026-0168.64 -7.60

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 31
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 31
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 30
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-06 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 +3.82 [0.66, 5.47] yes
NCEP GFS 25 +5.29 [3.93, 6.63] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +5.99 [5.04, 6.96] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 +4.64 [3.91, 5.46] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence