Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 6

KDFW · gfs · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.25 [1.46, 3.12]2.06+0.92 [-0.43, 1.81]3.09 [1.79, 4.18]33% [16%, 54%]50%83%+0.26+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.25 [1.34, 3.25]2.06+0.92 [-0.84, 1.85]3.09 [1.65, 4.34]33% [15%, 60%]50%83%+0.26+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.25 [1.29, 3.43]2.06+0.92 [-0.75, 1.86]3.09 [1.65, 4.48]33% [14%, 60%]50%83%+0.26+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.25 [1.33, 3.33]2.06+0.92 [-0.66, 1.89]3.09 [1.69, 4.43]33% [14%, 59%]50%83%+0.26+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.32 [1.53, 3.17]2.16+0.87 [-0.50, 1.79]3.10 [1.84, 4.20]25% [10%, 43%]50%79%+0.24+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.32 [1.47, 3.31]2.16+0.87 [-0.88, 1.82]3.10 [1.73, 4.34]25% [10%, 45%]50%79%+0.24+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.32 [1.45, 3.46]2.16+0.87 [-0.81, 1.81]3.10 [1.72, 4.47]25% [7%, 44%]50%79%+0.24+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC2.32 [1.48, 3.38]2.16+0.87 [-0.72, 1.86]3.10 [1.76, 4.43]25% [8%, 50%]50%79%+0.24+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.23 [1.34, 3.13]1.71+1.52 [0.56, 2.48]2.88 [1.55, 3.93]25% [11%, 44%]71%75%+0.27+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.23 [1.05, 3.20]1.71+1.52 [0.40, 2.48]2.88 [1.26, 3.95]25% [11%, 50%]71%75%+0.27+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.23 [1.12, 3.21]1.71+1.52 [0.32, 2.59]2.88 [1.31, 4.11]25% [11%, 50%]71%75%+0.27+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.23 [0.97, 3.29]1.71+1.52 [0.32, 2.64]2.88 [1.14, 4.14]25% [9%, 50%]71%75%+0.27+0.422026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.26 [1.33, 3.15]1.79+1.53 [0.55, 2.47]2.92 [1.60, 3.97]29% [11%, 56%]58%75%+0.26+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.26 [1.11, 3.23]1.79+1.53 [0.43, 2.46]2.92 [1.40, 3.98]29% [11%, 64%]58%75%+0.26+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.26 [1.13, 3.28]1.79+1.53 [0.27, 2.58]2.92 [1.43, 4.17]29% [12%, 62%]58%75%+0.26+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC2.26 [0.94, 3.37]1.79+1.53 [0.29, 2.60]2.92 [1.18, 4.20]29% [10%, 67%]58%75%+0.26+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.86 [2.38, 3.20]1.24+2.86 [2.38, 3.20]3.22 [2.79, 3.46]12% [0%, 26%]25%54%-0.02+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.86 [2.24, 3.21]1.24+2.86 [2.24, 3.21]3.22 [2.62, 3.46]12% [0%, 28%]25%54%-0.02+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.86 [2.28, 3.24]1.24+2.86 [2.28, 3.24]3.22 [2.68, 3.47]12% [0%, 29%]25%54%-0.02+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.86 [2.26, 3.24]1.24+2.86 [2.26, 3.24]3.22 [2.58, 3.46]12% [0%, 29%]25%54%-0.02+0.552026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC3.63 [3.12, 4.02]1.37+3.57 [2.95, 4.01]3.95 [3.48, 4.24]8% [0%, 18%]17%38%-0.30+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC3.63 [2.94, 4.00]1.37+3.57 [2.75, 4.00]3.95 [3.27, 4.20]8% [0%, 20%]17%38%-0.30+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC3.63 [2.96, 4.06]1.37+3.57 [2.79, 4.06]3.95 [3.26, 4.24]8% [0%, 20%]17%38%-0.30+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC3.63 [2.95, 4.04]1.37+3.57 [2.76, 4.04]3.95 [3.22, 4.22]8% [0%, 19%]17%38%-0.30+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.28 [2.55, 3.96]1.86+2.91 [1.96, 3.85]3.73 [3.03, 4.29]8% [0%, 17%]29%54%-0.18+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.28 [2.40, 4.08]1.86+2.91 [1.78, 4.04]3.73 [2.92, 4.32]8% [0%, 17%]29%54%-0.18+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.28 [2.37, 4.18]1.86+2.91 [1.82, 4.18]3.73 [2.88, 4.39]8% [0%, 17%]29%54%-0.18+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.28 [2.38, 4.07]1.86+2.91 [1.82, 4.05]3.73 [2.91, 4.31]8% [0%, 17%]29%54%-0.18+0.332026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.70 [2.96, 4.44]2.05+3.35 [2.36, 4.33]4.20 [3.53, 4.76]17% [4%, 31%]21%38%-0.33+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.70 [2.76, 4.51]2.05+3.35 [2.16, 4.50]4.20 [3.39, 4.80]17% [0%, 33%]21%38%-0.33+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.70 [2.78, 4.60]2.05+3.35 [2.16, 4.60]4.20 [3.43, 4.84]17% [0%, 33%]21%38%-0.33+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC3.70 [2.76, 4.52]2.05+3.35 [2.12, 4.52]4.20 [3.37, 4.79]17% [0%, 33%]21%38%-0.33+0.262026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: +0.85 °F2026-08-08: -0.36 °F2026-08-09: +2.45 °F2026-08-10: +2.14 °F2026-08-11: -0.32 °F2026-08-12: +2.9 °F2026-08-13: +3.32 °F2026-08-14: +2.7 °F2026-08-15: +2.55 °F2026-08-16: +0.78 °F2026-08-17: -0.27 °F2026-08-18: +2.99 °F2026-08-19: -0.45 °F2026-08-20: -1.63 °F2026-08-21: +0.38 °F2026-08-22: -2.81 °F2026-08-23: +1.34 °F2026-08-24: +1.03 °F2026-08-25: +9.11 °F2026-08-26: +4.09 °F2026-08-27: +1.23 °F2026-08-28: -2.87 °F2026-08-29: -7.19 °F2026-08-30: +0.22 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.22
2026-08-29-7.19
2026-08-28-2.87
2026-08-27+1.23
2026-08-26+4.09
2026-08-25+9.11
2026-08-24+1.03
2026-08-23+1.34
2026-08-22-2.81
2026-08-21+0.38
2026-08-20-1.63
2026-08-19-0.45
2026-08-18+2.99
2026-08-17-0.27
2026-08-16+0.78
2026-08-15+2.55
2026-08-14+2.70
2026-08-13+3.32
2026-08-12+2.90
2026-08-11-0.32
2026-08-10+2.14
2026-08-09+2.45
2026-08-08-0.36
2026-08-07+0.85

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 3 °F: 6 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 1.89 · P90 |e| 3.86 °F-100+10 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.001
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.003
+2.00+3.006
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08242.25 +0.92

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
NCEP GFS2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 -1.59 [-4.74, -0.04] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -5.56 [-7.03, -4.25] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +0.25 [-1.15, 1.66] no
Persistence (baseline) 24 -0.79 [-2.15, 0.07] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence