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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 6

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC7.81 [6.68, 8.84]2.60-7.81 [-8.84, -6.68]8.41 [7.30, 9.31]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.57+0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC7.81 [6.42, 8.98]2.60-7.81 [-8.98, -6.42]8.41 [7.04, 9.47]0% [0%, 0%]0%8%-1.57+0.112026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC8.27 [6.98, 9.79]3.15-8.27 [-9.79, -6.98]9.19 [7.70, 10.96]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.05+0.232026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 1 QC8.27 [7.01, 9.81]3.15-8.27 [-9.81, -7.01]9.19 [7.65, 10.99]0% [0%, 0%]3%10%-1.05+0.232026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC8.13 [7.04, 9.13]2.52-8.13 [-9.13, -7.04]8.68 [7.62, 9.54]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.67+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC8.13 [6.82, 9.24]2.52-8.13 [-9.24, -6.82]8.68 [7.37, 9.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.67+0.142026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 1 QC8.58 [7.34, 10.04]3.09-8.58 [-10.04, -7.34]9.44 [8.01, 11.18]0% [0%, 0%]3%7%-1.13+0.252026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 1 QC8.58 [7.38, 10.15]3.09-8.58 [-10.15, -7.38]9.44 [7.96, 11.21]0% [0%, 0%]3%7%-1.13+0.252026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC8.35 [7.07, 9.56]2.48-8.35 [-9.56, -7.07]8.85 [7.44, 9.99]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.74+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC8.35 [6.81, 9.77]2.48-8.35 [-9.77, -6.81]8.85 [7.23, 10.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.74+0.152026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC8.32 [7.00, 9.55]2.97-8.07 [-9.49, -6.55]8.92 [7.51, 10.13]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.21+0.212026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC8.32 [7.04, 9.48]2.97-8.07 [-9.39, -6.61]8.92 [7.54, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.21+0.212026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC8.67 [7.43, 9.84]2.42-8.67 [-9.84, -7.43]9.13 [7.81, 10.21]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.85+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC8.67 [7.20, 10.04]2.42-8.67 [-10.04, -7.20]9.13 [7.59, 10.35]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.85+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC8.63 [7.32, 9.85]2.92-8.41 [-9.78, -6.92]9.21 [7.86, 10.39]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.30+0.222026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC8.63 [7.37, 9.78]2.92-8.41 [-9.71, -7.00]9.21 [7.88, 10.33]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.30+0.222026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.12 [1.40, 2.93]1.91-1.36 [-2.55, -0.09]2.70 [1.77, 3.48]29% [15%, 45%]62%71%+0.24+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.12 [1.34, 3.08]1.91-1.36 [-2.80, 0.17]2.70 [1.71, 3.63]29% [14%, 47%]62%71%+0.24+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 1 QC2.29 [1.52, 3.12]2.19-0.66 [-2.14, 1.04]2.96 [1.93, 3.80]33% [19%, 48%]60%67%+0.38+0.412026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 1 QC2.29 [1.53, 3.08]2.19-0.66 [-2.15, 1.16]2.96 [1.91, 3.81]33% [19%, 50%]60%67%+0.38+0.412026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.09 [1.39, 2.90]1.90-1.33 [-2.54, -0.06]2.68 [1.75, 3.46]33% [19%, 47%]62%71%+0.25+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.09 [1.31, 3.06]1.90-1.33 [-2.79, 0.18]2.68 [1.68, 3.62]33% [17%, 50%]62%71%+0.25+0.312026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 1 QC2.24 [1.49, 3.05]2.16-0.63 [-2.11, 1.07]2.92 [1.92, 3.74]37% [22%, 50%]60%67%+0.39+0.422026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 1 QC2.24 [1.50, 3.00]2.16-0.63 [-2.14, 1.20]2.92 [1.88, 3.73]37% [24%, 50%]60%67%+0.39+0.422026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.40 [1.80, 3.09]1.94-1.76 [-2.94, -0.49]2.94 [2.12, 3.66]29% [8%, 46%]42%67%+0.14+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.40 [1.75, 3.26]1.94-1.76 [-3.14, -0.31]2.94 [2.04, 3.89]29% [0%, 46%]42%67%+0.14+0.292026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.61 [1.88, 3.48]2.47-0.85 [-2.62, 1.38]3.26 [2.22, 4.21]28% [8%, 43%]41%62%+0.19+0.232026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.61 [1.94, 3.54]2.47-0.85 [-2.51, 1.63]3.26 [2.26, 4.29]28% [10%, 43%]41%62%+0.19+0.232026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.37 [1.79, 3.06]1.92-1.74 [-2.91, -0.49]2.90 [2.11, 3.61]29% [8%, 46%]42%71%+0.15+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.37 [1.75, 3.24]1.92-1.74 [-3.12, -0.31]2.90 [2.04, 3.83]29% [0%, 46%]42%71%+0.15+0.302026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.57 [1.87, 3.39]2.43-0.86 [-2.58, 1.32]3.20 [2.22, 4.13]28% [8%, 43%]41%66%+0.21+0.242026-01-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.57 [1.92, 3.44]2.43-0.86 [-2.49, 1.51]3.20 [2.23, 4.16]28% [10%, 43%]41%66%+0.21+0.242026-01-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -5.97 °F2026-08-08: -12.4 °F2026-08-09: -4.7 °F2026-08-10: -2.96 °F2026-08-11: -5.28 °F2026-08-12: -5.52 °F2026-08-13: -5.16 °F2026-08-14: -7.37 °F2026-08-15: -8.42 °F2026-08-16: -9.58 °F2026-08-17: -11.19 °F2026-08-18: -8.53 °F2026-08-19: -7.78 °F2026-08-20: -10.3 °F2026-08-21: -2.54 °F2026-08-22: -8.22 °F2026-08-23: -13.08 °F2026-08-24: -12.42 °F2026-08-25: -4.36 °F2026-08-26: -3.18 °F2026-08-27: -8.17 °F2026-08-28: -10.8 °F2026-08-29: -11.43 °F2026-08-30: -8.18 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.18
2026-08-29-11.43
2026-08-28-10.80
2026-08-27-8.17
2026-08-26-3.18
2026-08-25-4.36
2026-08-24-12.42
2026-08-23-13.08
2026-08-22-8.22
2026-08-21-2.54
2026-08-20-10.30
2026-08-19-7.78
2026-08-18-8.53
2026-08-17-11.19
2026-08-16-9.58
2026-08-15-8.42
2026-08-14-7.37
2026-08-13-5.16
2026-08-12-5.52
2026-08-11-5.28
2026-08-10-2.96
2026-08-09-4.70
2026-08-08-12.40
2026-08-07-5.97

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 1 day-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 3 days-12 to -10 °F: 5 days-10 to -8 °F: 7 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 8.2 · P90 |e| 12.49 °F-200+20 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.001
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.003
-12.00-10.005
-10.00-8.007
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.003
-2.00+0.001
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08247.81 -7.81
2026-01610.11 -10.11

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-07 → 2026-08-30 30
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-07 → 2026-08-30 30
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-07 → 2026-08-30 29
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-07 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 24 +3.98 [0.69, 5.41] yes
NCEP GFS 24 +5.56 [4.25, 7.03] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +6.09 [5.12, 7.21] yes
Persistence (baseline) 24 +4.77 [3.72, 5.52] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence