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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 6

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.84 [2.63, 5.71]2.42-3.55 [-5.55, -2.34]4.90 [3.10, 7.18]21% [0%, 43%]29%42%-0.26+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.84 [2.56, 6.45]2.42-3.55 [-6.45, -2.26]4.90 [3.08, 7.85]21% [0%, 45%]29%42%-0.26+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.84 [2.57, 6.45]2.42-3.55 [-6.38, -2.37]4.90 [3.10, 7.77]21% [0%, 46%]29%42%-0.26+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.84 [2.55, 6.55]2.42-3.55 [-6.30, -2.21]4.90 [3.00, 7.81]21% [0%, 44%]29%42%-0.26+0.172026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d24 1 QC4.34 [3.14, 6.20]2.38-4.11 [-6.11, -2.91]5.27 [3.52, 7.53]0% [0%, 0%]29%42%-0.43+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d24 1 QC4.34 [3.06, 6.96]2.38-4.11 [-6.96, -2.85]5.27 [3.52, 8.22]0% [0%, 0%]29%42%-0.43+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d24 1 QC4.34 [3.08, 6.96]2.38-4.11 [-6.92, -2.94]5.27 [3.51, 8.12]0% [0%, 0%]29%42%-0.43+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall24 1 QC4.34 [3.06, 7.02]2.38-4.11 [-6.83, -2.79]5.27 [3.43, 8.17]0% [0%, 0%]29%42%-0.43+0.192026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC4.04 [2.66, 6.44]2.68-3.72 [-6.23, -2.43]5.47 [3.06, 8.65]8% [0%, 16%]25%54%-0.33+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC4.04 [2.61, 7.12]2.68-3.72 [-7.12, -2.41]5.47 [2.98, 9.48]8% [0%, 17%]25%54%-0.33+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC4.04 [2.50, 6.93]2.68-3.72 [-6.91, -2.37]5.47 [2.92, 9.30]8% [0%, 16%]25%54%-0.33+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC4.04 [2.46, 7.15]2.68-3.72 [-6.94, -2.33]5.47 [2.78, 9.36]8% [0%, 17%]25%54%-0.33+0.092026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.49 [3.14, 6.91]2.69-4.26 [-6.81, -2.96]5.87 [3.50, 9.11]8% [0%, 16%]12%46%-0.48+0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.49 [3.08, 7.73]2.69-4.26 [-7.73, -2.94]5.87 [3.42, 9.99]8% [0%, 17%]12%46%-0.48+0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.49 [2.98, 7.49]2.69-4.26 [-7.46, -2.89]5.87 [3.35, 9.77]8% [0%, 16%]12%46%-0.48+0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.49 [2.96, 7.70]2.69-4.26 [-7.52, -2.86]5.87 [3.24, 9.80]8% [0%, 17%]12%46%-0.48+0.082026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.17 [1.66, 2.73]1.68-1.60 [-2.41, -0.92]2.73 [2.04, 3.49]25% [4%, 50%]58%79%+0.22+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.17 [1.64, 2.86]1.68-1.60 [-2.64, -0.86]2.73 [2.07, 3.66]25% [0%, 57%]58%79%+0.22+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.17 [1.59, 2.87]1.68-1.60 [-2.70, -0.84]2.73 [1.96, 3.68]25% [0%, 60%]58%79%+0.22+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.17 [1.57, 2.93]1.68-1.60 [-2.76, -0.76]2.73 [1.95, 3.76]25% [0%, 57%]58%79%+0.22+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d24 1 QC2.30 [1.74, 2.94]1.69-1.85 [-2.68, -1.12]2.89 [2.16, 3.67]25% [11%, 39%]46%75%+0.18+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d24 1 QC2.30 [1.71, 3.07]1.69-1.85 [-2.91, -1.07]2.89 [2.18, 3.91]25% [9%, 44%]46%75%+0.18+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d24 1 QC2.30 [1.69, 3.14]1.69-1.85 [-2.95, -1.03]2.89 [2.06, 3.87]25% [8%, 43%]46%75%+0.18+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall24 1 QC2.30 [1.64, 3.16]1.69-1.85 [-3.06, -0.98]2.89 [2.03, 3.98]25% [11%, 44%]46%75%+0.18+0.392026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.14 [1.76, 2.64]1.53-1.69 [-2.41, -1.06]2.57 [2.06, 3.23]25% [12%, 38%]54%75%+0.24+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.14 [1.74, 2.83]1.53-1.69 [-2.59, -1.04]2.57 [2.05, 3.35]25% [8%, 40%]54%75%+0.24+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.14 [1.71, 2.77]1.53-1.69 [-2.62, -0.99]2.57 [2.02, 3.31]25% [8%, 40%]54%75%+0.24+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.14 [1.71, 2.73]1.53-1.69 [-2.62, -1.00]2.57 [2.03, 3.38]25% [9%, 40%]54%75%+0.24+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.22 [1.79, 2.78]1.55-1.91 [-2.64, -1.27]2.72 [2.17, 3.40]25% [12%, 38%]46%75%+0.20+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.22 [1.79, 2.94]1.55-1.91 [-2.80, -1.27]2.72 [2.18, 3.52]25% [8%, 40%]46%75%+0.20+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.22 [1.76, 2.92]1.55-1.91 [-2.87, -1.19]2.72 [2.16, 3.51]25% [8%, 40%]46%75%+0.20+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.22 [1.75, 3.00]1.55-1.91 [-2.90, -1.19]2.72 [2.16, 3.54]25% [9%, 40%]46%75%+0.20+0.442026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-07: -8.71 °F2026-08-08: -14.07 °F2026-08-09: -7.62 °F2026-08-10: -0.95 °F2026-08-11: -0.88 °F2026-08-12: -0.91 °F2026-08-13: -0.95 °F2026-08-14: -1.31 °F2026-08-15: -2.13 °F2026-08-16: -3.3 °F2026-08-17: -4.01 °F2026-08-18: -4.01 °F2026-08-19: -2.18 °F2026-08-20: -6.24 °F2026-08-21: -1.02 °F2026-08-22: -2.96 °F2026-08-23: -5.61 °F2026-08-24: -5.37 °F2026-08-25: +3.43 °F2026-08-26: -0.47 °F2026-08-27: -3.53 °F2026-08-28: -4.04 °F2026-08-29: -4.86 °F2026-08-30: -3.51 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.51
2026-08-29-4.86
2026-08-28-4.04
2026-08-27-3.53
2026-08-26-0.47
2026-08-25+3.43
2026-08-24-5.37
2026-08-23-5.61
2026-08-22-2.96
2026-08-21-1.02
2026-08-20-6.24
2026-08-19-2.18
2026-08-18-4.01
2026-08-17-4.01
2026-08-16-3.30
2026-08-15-2.13
2026-08-14-1.31
2026-08-13-0.95
2026-08-12-0.91
2026-08-11-0.88
2026-08-10-0.95
2026-08-09-7.62
2026-08-08-14.07
2026-08-07-8.71

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 6-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.47 · P90 |e| 7.2 °F-200+20 °Fn = 24 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.006
-2.00+0.007
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08243.84 -3.55

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 24 +1.59 [0.04, 4.74] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 24 -3.98 [-5.41, -0.69] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 19 +1.40 [0.57, 4.62] yes
Persistence (baseline) 24 +0.79 [-0.75, 3.31] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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