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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 6

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 6

Target day = initialization date + 6 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.16 [0.97, 2.92]1.77-1.05 [-1.69, -0.33]2.82 [1.33, 3.65]21% [4%, 55%]53%79%+0.36+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.16 [0.39, 2.94]1.77-1.05 [-1.73, -0.05]2.82 [0.64, 3.68]21% [3%, 80%]53%79%+0.36+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.16 [0.38, 3.01]1.77-1.05 [-1.82, 0.04]2.82 [0.60, 3.71]21% [0%, 83%]53%79%+0.36+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.16 [0.48, 3.06]1.77-1.05 [-1.75, -0.06]2.82 [0.70, 3.79]21% [0%, 78%]53%79%+0.36+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d19 1 QC2.45 [1.17, 3.21]1.73-1.47 [-2.18, -0.75]3.00 [1.55, 3.72]16% [0%, 53%]42%74%+0.27+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d19 1 QC2.45 [0.45, 3.21]1.73-1.47 [-2.24, -0.31]3.00 [0.64, 3.75]16% [0%, 80%]42%74%+0.27+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d19 1 QC2.45 [0.45, 3.28]1.73-1.47 [-2.34, -0.31]3.00 [0.61, 3.81]16% [0%, 83%]42%74%+0.27+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall19 1 QC2.45 [0.50, 3.32]1.73-1.47 [-2.19, -0.39]3.00 [0.69, 3.88]16% [0%, 78%]42%74%+0.27+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC2.23 [0.97, 3.11]1.92-1.09 [-1.78, -0.48]2.84 [1.18, 3.60]37% [16%, 73%]63%74%+0.34+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC2.23 [0.76, 3.14]1.92-1.09 [-1.82, -0.49]2.84 [0.76, 3.63]37% [15%, 100%]63%74%+0.34+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC2.23 [0.76, 3.24]1.92-1.09 [-1.88, -0.45]2.84 [0.76, 3.70]37% [14%, 100%]63%74%+0.34+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall19 1 QC2.23 [0.76, 3.28]1.92-1.09 [-1.79, -0.44]2.84 [0.76, 3.74]37% [13%, 100%]63%74%+0.34+0.402026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d19 1 QC2.26 [1.01, 3.08]1.76-1.40 [-2.01, -0.75]2.84 [1.29, 3.56]21% [0%, 67%]58%74%+0.33+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d19 1 QC2.26 [0.57, 3.10]1.76-1.40 [-2.13, -0.57]2.84 [0.57, 3.56]21% [0%, 100%]58%74%+0.33+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d19 1 QC2.26 [0.57, 3.19]1.76-1.40 [-2.12, -0.57]2.84 [0.58, 3.62]21% [0%, 100%]58%74%+0.33+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall19 1 QC2.26 [0.57, 3.22]1.76-1.40 [-2.09, -0.57]2.84 [0.58, 3.67]21% [0%, 100%]58%74%+0.33+0.452026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.07 [2.20, 4.09]1.30+3.03 [2.20, 4.01]3.44 [2.50, 4.40]16% [0%, 36%]16%58%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.07 [2.10, 4.33]1.30+3.03 [2.10, 4.25]3.44 [2.35, 4.64]16% [0%, 40%]16%58%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.07 [2.04, 4.41]1.30+3.03 [2.04, 4.34]3.44 [2.30, 4.70]16% [0%, 44%]16%58%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.07 [2.02, 4.39]1.30+3.03 [2.02, 4.39]3.44 [2.27, 4.72]16% [0%, 40%]16%58%-0.17+0.502026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d19 1 QC3.15 [2.45, 4.05]1.09+3.15 [2.45, 4.05]3.45 [2.68, 4.36]5% [0%, 14%]16%53%-0.20+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d19 1 QC3.15 [2.35, 4.44]1.09+3.15 [2.35, 4.44]3.45 [2.56, 4.57]5% [0%, 14%]16%53%-0.20+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d19 1 QC3.15 [2.31, 4.39]1.09+3.15 [2.31, 4.39]3.45 [2.53, 4.58]5% [0%, 14%]16%53%-0.20+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall19 1 QC3.15 [2.31, 4.49]1.09+3.15 [2.31, 4.49]3.45 [2.51, 4.62]5% [0%, 14%]16%53%-0.20+0.582026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d19 1 QC3.44 [2.25, 4.71]1.42+3.44 [2.25, 4.71]3.92 [2.70, 5.06]16% [0%, 36%]21%37%-0.31+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d19 1 QC3.44 [2.09, 4.96]1.42+3.44 [2.09, 4.96]3.92 [2.56, 5.25]16% [0%, 40%]21%37%-0.31+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d19 1 QC3.44 [2.05, 4.94]1.42+3.44 [2.05, 4.94]3.92 [2.56, 5.24]16% [0%, 43%]21%37%-0.31+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall19 1 QC3.44 [2.10, 4.96]1.42+3.44 [2.10, 4.96]3.92 [2.58, 5.24]16% [0%, 40%]21%37%-0.31+0.462026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d19 1 QC3.70 [2.55, 4.89]1.35+3.70 [2.55, 4.89]4.09 [2.93, 5.13]11% [0%, 35%]16%32%-0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d19 1 QC3.70 [2.37, 5.12]1.35+3.70 [2.37, 5.12]4.09 [2.79, 5.33]11% [0%, 40%]16%32%-0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d19 1 QC3.70 [2.32, 5.10]1.35+3.70 [2.32, 5.10]4.09 [2.78, 5.32]11% [0%, 43%]16%32%-0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall19 1 QC3.70 [2.39, 5.13]1.35+3.70 [2.39, 5.13]4.09 [2.80, 5.33]11% [0%, 40%]16%32%-0.41+0.482026-08-07 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 6, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-07: +0.04 °F2026-08-13: +0.49 °F2026-08-14: +0.04 °F2026-08-15: -1.34 °F2026-08-16: -1.46 °F2026-08-17: -2.03 °F2026-08-18: -2.34 °F2026-08-19: -2.48 °F2026-08-20: -2.81 °F2026-08-21: +7.69 °F2026-08-22: -1.4 °F2026-08-23: -1.35 °F2026-08-24: -5.26 °F2026-08-25: +2.04 °F2026-08-26: -3.18 °F2026-08-27: +0.22 °F2026-08-28: -1.62 °F2026-08-29: -3.77 °F2026-08-30: -1.4 °F2026-08-072026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (24 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.40
2026-08-29-3.77
2026-08-28-1.62
2026-08-27+0.22
2026-08-26-3.18
2026-08-25+2.04
2026-08-24-5.26
2026-08-23-1.35
2026-08-22-1.40
2026-08-21+7.69
2026-08-20-2.81
2026-08-19-2.48
2026-08-18-2.34
2026-08-17-2.03
2026-08-16-1.46
2026-08-15-1.34
2026-08-14+0.04
2026-08-13+0.49
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07+0.04

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 6-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.62 · P90 |e| 4.07 °F-100+10 °Fn = 19 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08192.16 -1.05

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-07 → 2026-08-30 19

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 19 -1.40 [-4.62, -0.57] yes
NCEP GFS 19 -0.25 [-1.66, 1.15] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 19 -6.09 [-7.21, -5.12] yes
Persistence (baseline) 19 -1.21 [-3.10, -0.10] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 6, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 6. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/6/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence