Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · NCEP GFS · lead day 7

KOKC · gfs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.38 [2.33, 4.42]3.37+1.08 [-0.55, 2.42]4.32 [2.91, 5.37]17% [6%, 29%]39%57%+0.29+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.38 [2.06, 4.46]3.37+1.08 [-1.24, 2.47]4.32 [2.38, 5.43]17% [0%, 29%]39%57%+0.29+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.38 [1.99, 4.56]3.37+1.08 [-1.19, 2.47]4.32 [2.36, 5.57]17% [0%, 29%]39%57%+0.29+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.38 [2.05, 4.36]3.37+1.08 [-1.30, 2.40]4.32 [2.40, 5.42]17% [0%, 29%]39%57%+0.29+0.302026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC3.52 [2.38, 4.52]3.44+1.34 [-0.34, 2.82]4.48 [3.01, 5.56]17% [0%, 35%]35%52%+0.26+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC3.52 [1.97, 4.58]3.44+1.34 [-0.94, 2.82]4.48 [2.38, 5.63]17% [0%, 38%]35%52%+0.26+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC3.52 [1.97, 4.62]3.44+1.34 [-0.88, 2.86]4.48 [2.34, 5.71]17% [0%, 37%]35%52%+0.26+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC3.52 [1.99, 4.47]3.44+1.34 [-1.05, 2.80]4.48 [2.34, 5.55]17% [0%, 38%]35%52%+0.26+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.63 [2.33, 4.72]3.43+1.66 [-0.27, 3.32]4.82 [3.15, 5.87]22% [6%, 35%]43%57%+0.24+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.63 [1.97, 4.69]3.43+1.66 [-0.87, 3.43]4.82 [2.42, 5.84]22% [0%, 35%]43%57%+0.24+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.63 [1.96, 4.93]3.43+1.66 [-0.94, 3.46]4.82 [2.48, 6.06]22% [0%, 36%]43%57%+0.24+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.63 [1.95, 4.82]3.43+1.66 [-0.86, 3.31]4.82 [2.34, 5.93]22% [0%, 36%]43%57%+0.24+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 2 QC3.72 [2.38, 4.82]3.45+1.94 [0.07, 3.53]4.93 [3.15, 6.01]22% [6%, 35%]39%57%+0.22+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 2 QC3.72 [1.95, 4.85]3.45+1.94 [-0.42, 3.66]4.93 [2.38, 5.97]22% [0%, 35%]39%57%+0.22+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 2 QC3.72 [1.98, 5.05]3.45+1.94 [-0.50, 3.69]4.93 [2.39, 6.15]22% [0%, 36%]39%57%+0.22+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 2 QC3.72 [1.93, 4.95]3.45+1.94 [-0.39, 3.53]4.93 [2.31, 6.05]22% [0%, 36%]39%57%+0.22+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC5.50 [4.90, 6.26]4.12+3.17 [1.49, 5.49]6.29 [5.50, 7.26]0% [0%, 0%]9%17%-0.29+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC5.50 [4.92, 6.42]4.12+3.17 [1.54, 6.17]6.29 [5.46, 7.56]0% [0%, 0%]9%17%-0.29+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC5.50 [4.89, 6.38]4.12+3.17 [1.42, 6.21]6.29 [5.43, 7.43]0% [0%, 0%]9%17%-0.29+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC5.50 [4.82, 6.36]4.12+3.17 [1.30, 6.22]6.29 [5.40, 7.40]0% [0%, 0%]9%17%-0.29+0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC5.85 [5.21, 6.54]4.38+3.25 [1.47, 5.65]6.65 [5.88, 7.49]4% [0%, 12%]9%13%-0.37-0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC5.85 [5.28, 6.71]4.38+3.25 [1.49, 6.38]6.65 [5.87, 7.73]4% [0%, 12%]9%13%-0.37-0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC5.85 [5.16, 6.64]4.38+3.25 [1.39, 6.44]6.65 [5.83, 7.73]4% [0%, 14%]9%13%-0.37-0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC5.85 [5.01, 6.62]4.38+3.25 [1.19, 6.44]6.65 [5.75, 7.64]4% [0%, 14%]9%13%-0.37-0.052026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 2 QC5.04 [3.89, 6.39]3.47+3.20 [1.24, 5.34]5.98 [4.70, 7.31]4% [0%, 12%]13%30%-0.18+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 2 QC5.04 [3.80, 6.75]3.47+3.20 [1.22, 6.16]5.98 [4.50, 7.58]4% [0%, 12%]13%30%-0.18+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 2 QC5.04 [3.77, 6.80]3.47+3.20 [1.07, 5.85]5.98 [4.57, 7.58]4% [0%, 14%]13%30%-0.18+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 2 QC5.04 [3.78, 6.75]3.47+3.20 [0.86, 6.08]5.98 [4.55, 7.52]4% [0%, 14%]13%30%-0.18+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 2 QC5.31 [3.93, 6.79]3.89+3.28 [1.11, 5.52]6.34 [4.98, 7.68]4% [0%, 13%]22%26%-0.25+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 2 QC5.31 [3.83, 7.13]3.89+3.28 [1.02, 6.25]6.34 [4.77, 7.94]4% [0%, 13%]22%26%-0.25+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 2 QC5.31 [3.71, 7.24]3.89+3.28 [0.93, 6.13]6.34 [4.79, 8.04]4% [0%, 14%]22%26%-0.25+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 2 QC5.31 [3.77, 7.12]3.89+3.28 [0.60, 6.17]6.34 [4.77, 7.90]4% [0%, 14%]22%26%-0.25+0.072026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -3.57 °F2026-08-09: -1.98 °F2026-08-10: -1.24 °F2026-08-11: +2.03 °F2026-08-12: +0.9 °F2026-08-13: +0.1 °F2026-08-14: -1.04 °F2026-08-15: -5.37 °F2026-08-16: +3.62 °F2026-08-17: +10.59 °F2026-08-18: -0.57 °F2026-08-19: +7.4 °F2026-08-20: -1.98 °F2026-08-21: -6.56 °F2026-08-22: +3.23 °F2026-08-23: +2.29 °F2026-08-24: +3.47 °F2026-08-25: +0.7 °F2026-08-26: +2.77 °F2026-08-27: +8.47 °F2026-08-28: +5.7 °F2026-08-29: -1.74 °F2026-08-30: -2.44 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.44
2026-08-29-1.74
2026-08-28+5.70
2026-08-27+8.47
2026-08-26+2.77
2026-08-25+0.70
2026-08-24+3.47
2026-08-23+2.29
2026-08-22+3.23
2026-08-21-6.56
2026-08-20-1.98
2026-08-19+7.40
2026-08-18-0.57
2026-08-17+10.59
2026-08-16+3.62
2026-08-15-5.37
2026-08-14-1.04
2026-08-13+0.10
2026-08-12+0.90
2026-08-11+2.03
2026-08-10-1.24
2026-08-09-1.98
2026-08-08-3.57

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 6 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.44 · P90 |e| 7.23 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.001
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.006
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.006
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08233.38 +1.08

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -1.64 [-5.13, 0.10] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -6.93 [-8.26, -5.85] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.62 [0.72, 2.25] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 -1.40 [-3.91, 0.89] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC gfs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model gfs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence