Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC2.36 [1.91, 2.79]1.93-1.23 [-2.74, 0.32]2.65 [2.22, 3.01]17% [0%, 31%]39%72%+0.53+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC2.36 [1.93, 2.79]1.93-1.23 [-2.77, 0.40]2.65 [2.21, 3.00]17% [0%, 33%]39%72%+0.53+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC2.36 [1.97, 2.84]1.93-1.23 [-2.82, 0.48]2.65 [2.24, 3.04]17% [0%, 33%]39%72%+0.53+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC2.36 [1.95, 2.80]1.93-1.23 [-2.79, 0.47]2.65 [2.21, 3.02]17% [0%, 33%]39%72%+0.53+0.612026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC2.22 [1.78, 2.54]1.91-0.96 [-2.39, 0.58]2.62 [2.15, 2.87]28% [11%, 44%]44%72%+0.56+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC2.22 [1.75, 2.51]1.91-0.96 [-2.44, 0.70]2.62 [1.91, 2.86]28% [0%, 44%]44%72%+0.56+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC2.22 [1.75, 2.55]1.91-0.96 [-2.47, 0.72]2.62 [1.88, 2.88]28% [0%, 44%]44%72%+0.56+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC2.22 [1.75, 2.52]1.91-0.96 [-2.44, 0.71]2.62 [1.86, 2.88]28% [0%, 44%]44%72%+0.56+0.622026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC2.88 [1.75, 4.07]2.54-1.99 [-3.33, -1.19]3.78 [2.24, 4.73]29% [9%, 41%]53%59%+0.46+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC2.88 [1.73, 4.19]2.54-1.99 [-3.60, -1.16]3.78 [2.21, 4.77]29% [0%, 42%]53%59%+0.46+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC2.88 [1.74, 4.21]2.54-1.99 [-3.60, -1.22]3.78 [2.21, 4.87]29% [0%, 43%]53%59%+0.46+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 2 QC2.88 [1.75, 4.19]2.54-1.99 [-3.72, -1.20]3.78 [2.21, 4.81]29% [0%, 43%]53%59%+0.46+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 2 QC2.87 [1.66, 3.97]2.65-1.67 [-2.97, -0.86]3.76 [2.15, 4.74]24% [6%, 37%]53%59%+0.46+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 2 QC2.87 [1.37, 4.06]2.65-1.67 [-3.24, -0.84]3.76 [1.56, 4.80]24% [0%, 38%]53%59%+0.46+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 2 QC2.87 [1.37, 4.17]2.65-1.67 [-3.25, -0.82]3.76 [1.51, 4.87]24% [0%, 38%]53%59%+0.46+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 2 QC2.87 [1.37, 4.12]2.65-1.67 [-3.29, -0.85]3.76 [1.55, 4.78]24% [0%, 38%]53%59%+0.46+0.502026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC7.68 [6.29, 10.16]3.09+7.68 [6.29, 10.16]8.62 [6.97, 10.97]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.06+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC7.68 [6.29, 11.75]3.09+7.68 [6.29, 11.75]8.62 [6.93, 12.43]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.06+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC7.68 [6.07, 11.94]3.09+7.68 [6.07, 11.94]8.62 [6.79, 12.39]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.06+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC7.68 [6.24, 11.48]3.09+7.68 [6.24, 11.48]8.62 [6.87, 11.91]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.06+0.172026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC8.58 [7.09, 11.15]3.37+8.58 [7.09, 11.15]9.58 [7.90, 12.02]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.30+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC8.58 [7.08, 12.95]3.37+8.58 [7.08, 12.95]9.58 [7.85, 13.62]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.30+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC8.58 [6.85, 13.03]3.37+8.58 [6.85, 13.03]9.58 [7.65, 13.49]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.30+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC8.58 [6.99, 12.56]3.37+8.58 [6.99, 12.56]9.58 [7.74, 13.02]0% [0%, 0%]6%17%-1.30+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 2 QC7.37 [6.14, 9.90]3.31+7.15 [5.73, 9.90]8.39 [6.93, 10.88]6% [0%, 14%]18%18%-0.99+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 2 QC7.37 [6.14, 11.72]3.31+7.15 [5.70, 11.72]8.39 [6.88, 12.13]6% [0%, 14%]18%18%-0.99+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 2 QC7.37 [5.95, 11.68]3.31+7.15 [5.47, 11.68]8.39 [6.76, 12.07]6% [0%, 15%]18%18%-0.99+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 2 QC7.37 [6.06, 11.08]3.31+7.15 [5.60, 11.08]8.39 [6.73, 11.70]6% [0%, 14%]18%18%-0.99+0.102026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 2 QC8.37 [7.08, 10.92]3.61+8.17 [6.72, 10.89]9.42 [7.99, 11.91]6% [0%, 14%]18%18%-1.26+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 2 QC8.37 [7.11, 12.81]3.61+8.17 [6.72, 12.81]9.42 [7.93, 13.16]6% [0%, 14%]18%18%-1.26+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 2 QC8.37 [6.92, 12.49]3.61+8.17 [6.44, 12.49]9.42 [7.76, 12.97]6% [0%, 15%]18%18%-1.26+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 2 QC8.37 [7.00, 12.07]3.61+8.17 [6.53, 12.07]9.42 [7.77, 12.75]6% [0%, 14%]18%18%-1.26+0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-08: -2.24 °F2026-08-14: -2.85 °F2026-08-15: -1.45 °F2026-08-16: -1.82 °F2026-08-17: -4.24 °F2026-08-18: -4.42 °F2026-08-19: -2.41 °F2026-08-20: -2.1 °F2026-08-21: -3.57 °F2026-08-22: +0.52 °F2026-08-23: +1.77 °F2026-08-24: -0.39 °F2026-08-25: +3.07 °F2026-08-26: +4.05 °F2026-08-27: +0.72 °F2026-08-28: -1.03 °F2026-08-29: -2.78 °F2026-08-30: -2.99 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.99
2026-08-29-2.78
2026-08-28-1.03
2026-08-27+0.72
2026-08-26+4.05
2026-08-25+3.07
2026-08-24-0.39
2026-08-23+1.77
2026-08-22+0.52
2026-08-21-3.57
2026-08-20-2.10
2026-08-19-2.41
2026-08-18-4.42
2026-08-17-4.24
2026-08-16-1.82
2026-08-15-1.45
2026-08-14-2.85
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08-2.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 7-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 3 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 1 day-1.5 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 1 day3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 1 day4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.33 · P90 |e| 4.11 °F-50+5 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.002
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.503
-2.50-2.003
-2.00-1.501
-1.50-1.002
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.001
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.002
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.001
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.501
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.501
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08182.36 -1.23

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -2.61 [-6.50, -1.34] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -1.62 [-2.25, -0.72] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -8.59 [-10.50, -7.04] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -2.64 [-6.34, -0.61] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence