Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC5.02 [3.60, 7.03]2.97-4.69 [-7.01, -2.95]6.22 [4.17, 8.23]9% [0%, 15%]22%30%-0.05+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC5.02 [3.53, 7.70]2.97-4.69 [-7.62, -2.88]6.22 [4.02, 8.80]9% [0%, 15%]22%30%-0.05+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC5.02 [3.47, 7.40]2.97-4.69 [-7.39, -2.78]6.22 [4.07, 8.66]9% [0%, 14%]22%30%-0.05+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 2 QC5.02 [3.25, 7.52]2.97-4.69 [-7.46, -2.49]6.22 [3.80, 8.57]9% [0%, 14%]22%30%-0.05+0.382026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 2 QC5.00 [3.60, 6.96]2.96-4.67 [-6.94, -2.97]6.16 [4.18, 8.11]4% [0%, 12%]22%30%-0.04+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 2 QC5.00 [3.55, 7.60]2.96-4.67 [-7.54, -2.90]6.16 [4.03, 8.67]4% [0%, 12%]22%30%-0.04+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 2 QC5.00 [3.47, 7.32]2.96-4.67 [-7.30, -2.79]6.16 [4.08, 8.53]4% [0%, 14%]22%30%-0.04+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 2 QC5.00 [3.27, 7.43]2.96-4.67 [-7.40, -2.50]6.16 [3.80, 8.45]4% [0%, 14%]22%30%-0.04+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 2 QC5.42 [4.35, 7.29]3.78-4.16 [-6.93, -2.53]6.51 [4.87, 8.73]4% [0%, 12%]13%26%-0.13+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 2 QC5.42 [4.23, 7.97]3.78-4.16 [-7.66, -2.54]6.51 [4.66, 9.57]4% [0%, 12%]13%26%-0.13+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 2 QC5.42 [4.36, 7.81]3.78-4.16 [-7.64, -2.31]6.51 [4.87, 9.39]4% [0%, 14%]13%26%-0.13+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 2 QC5.42 [4.22, 7.92]3.78-4.16 [-7.79, -2.35]6.51 [4.58, 9.38]4% [0%, 13%]13%26%-0.13+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 2 QC5.54 [4.46, 7.34]3.93-4.26 [-6.97, -2.63]6.65 [4.99, 8.78]4% [0%, 12%]17%26%-0.16+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 2 QC5.54 [4.35, 7.91]3.93-4.26 [-7.70, -2.68]6.65 [4.83, 9.49]4% [0%, 12%]17%26%-0.16+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 2 QC5.54 [4.43, 7.87]3.93-4.26 [-7.64, -2.38]6.65 [4.99, 9.37]4% [0%, 14%]17%26%-0.16+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 2 QC5.54 [4.31, 7.92]3.93-4.26 [-7.84, -2.45]6.65 [4.69, 9.36]4% [0%, 13%]17%26%-0.16+0.182026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.19 [2.29, 3.91]2.12+2.68 [1.88, 3.53]3.87 [2.96, 4.56]17% [0%, 43%]26%57%+0.25+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.19 [2.09, 3.86]2.12+2.68 [1.77, 3.50]3.87 [2.84, 4.49]17% [0%, 50%]26%57%+0.25+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.19 [2.05, 3.99]2.12+2.68 [1.78, 3.62]3.87 [2.78, 4.66]17% [0%, 50%]26%57%+0.25+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.19 [2.05, 3.92]2.12+2.68 [1.79, 3.59]3.87 [2.77, 4.56]17% [0%, 50%]26%57%+0.25+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 2 QC3.26 [2.30, 4.05]2.20+2.71 [1.84, 3.64]3.95 [2.99, 4.72]17% [0%, 43%]30%52%+0.24+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 2 QC3.26 [2.08, 3.99]2.20+2.71 [1.67, 3.61]3.95 [2.90, 4.65]17% [0%, 50%]30%52%+0.24+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 2 QC3.26 [1.99, 4.12]2.20+2.71 [1.68, 3.75]3.95 [2.79, 4.82]17% [0%, 50%]30%52%+0.24+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 2 QC3.26 [2.04, 4.07]2.20+2.71 [1.68, 3.70]3.95 [2.78, 4.72]17% [0%, 50%]30%52%+0.24+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 2 QC3.19 [2.53, 3.75]2.49+2.43 [1.24, 3.44]3.90 [3.06, 4.57]22% [9%, 36%]35%57%+0.25+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 2 QC3.19 [2.44, 3.72]2.49+2.43 [1.07, 3.41]3.90 [2.94, 4.51]22% [6%, 36%]35%57%+0.25+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 2 QC3.19 [2.37, 3.82]2.49+2.43 [1.00, 3.51]3.90 [2.82, 4.63]22% [5%, 36%]35%57%+0.25+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 2 QC3.19 [2.39, 3.74]2.49+2.43 [0.99, 3.52]3.90 [2.83, 4.54]22% [0%, 35%]35%57%+0.25+0.412026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 2 QC3.36 [2.65, 3.97]2.57+2.46 [1.13, 3.63]4.02 [3.11, 4.76]17% [7%, 33%]30%52%+0.21+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 2 QC3.36 [2.53, 3.93]2.57+2.46 [0.91, 3.60]4.02 [3.02, 4.70]17% [5%, 37%]30%52%+0.21+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 2 QC3.36 [2.44, 4.03]2.57+2.46 [0.88, 3.70]4.02 [2.80, 4.83]17% [0%, 36%]30%52%+0.21+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 2 QC3.36 [2.43, 3.97]2.57+2.46 [0.90, 3.70]4.02 [2.89, 4.74]17% [0%, 40%]30%52%+0.21+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -12.77 °F2026-08-09: -11.4 °F2026-08-10: -7.04 °F2026-08-11: -2.02 °F2026-08-12: -1.42 °F2026-08-13: -4.23 °F2026-08-14: -3.8 °F2026-08-15: -4.87 °F2026-08-16: -5.62 °F2026-08-17: -0.75 °F2026-08-18: -4.7 °F2026-08-19: -15.02 °F2026-08-20: -5.03 °F2026-08-21: -3.17 °F2026-08-22: -6 °F2026-08-23: +1.85 °F2026-08-24: -3.52 °F2026-08-25: +0.01 °F2026-08-26: +1.95 °F2026-08-27: -2.24 °F2026-08-28: -5.98 °F2026-08-29: -6.47 °F2026-08-30: -5.57 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.57
2026-08-29-6.47
2026-08-28-5.98
2026-08-27-2.24
2026-08-26+1.95
2026-08-25+0.01
2026-08-24-3.52
2026-08-23+1.85
2026-08-22-6.00
2026-08-21-3.17
2026-08-20-5.03
2026-08-19-15.02
2026-08-18-4.70
2026-08-17-0.75
2026-08-16-5.62
2026-08-15-4.87
2026-08-14-3.80
2026-08-13-4.23
2026-08-12-1.42
2026-08-11-2.02
2026-08-10-7.04
2026-08-09-11.40
2026-08-08-12.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.7 · P90 |e| 10.52 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08235.02 -4.69

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +1.64 [-0.10, 5.13] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -5.29 [-6.76, -2.18] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +2.61 [1.34, 6.50] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.24 [-2.22, 2.48] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence