Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 8

KDFW · gfs · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.32 [1.77, 4.96]3.30+0.64 [-0.73, 2.01]4.36 [2.24, 5.92]18% [0%, 40%]32%55%-0.00-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.32 [1.62, 5.10]3.30+0.64 [-0.77, 1.98]4.36 [2.16, 6.03]18% [0%, 45%]32%55%-0.00-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.32 [1.58, 5.26]3.30+0.64 [-0.81, 2.12]4.36 [2.08, 6.11]18% [0%, 44%]32%55%-0.00-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.32 [1.52, 5.34]3.30+0.64 [-0.70, 2.06]4.36 [2.02, 6.22]18% [0%, 50%]32%55%-0.00-0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.51 [1.83, 5.27]3.47+0.60 [-0.86, 2.10]4.62 [2.28, 6.33]18% [0%, 40%]32%55%-0.06-0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.51 [1.69, 5.42]3.47+0.60 [-0.87, 2.05]4.62 [2.21, 6.44]18% [0%, 45%]32%55%-0.06-0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.51 [1.68, 5.62]3.47+0.60 [-0.96, 2.22]4.62 [2.10, 6.55]18% [0%, 44%]32%55%-0.06-0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.51 [1.57, 5.70]3.47+0.60 [-0.81, 2.10]4.62 [2.05, 6.65]18% [0%, 50%]32%55%-0.06-0.182026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.24 [1.96, 4.62]3.12+0.34 [-1.57, 2.23]4.25 [2.24, 5.83]14% [4%, 25%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.24 [1.92, 4.77]3.12+0.34 [-1.81, 2.30]4.25 [2.19, 5.92]14% [0%, 27%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.24 [1.74, 4.72]3.12+0.34 [-2.15, 2.30]4.25 [2.00, 6.05]14% [0%, 27%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.24 [1.76, 4.79]3.12+0.34 [-2.24, 2.30]4.25 [2.03, 6.03]14% [0%, 25%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.26 [2.00, 4.60]3.13+0.38 [-1.51, 2.24]4.22 [2.28, 5.73]14% [4%, 25%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.26 [1.97, 4.75]3.13+0.38 [-1.75, 2.33]4.22 [2.23, 5.85]14% [0%, 27%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.26 [1.83, 4.69]3.13+0.38 [-2.07, 2.32]4.22 [2.04, 5.91]14% [0%, 27%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.26 [1.85, 4.77]3.13+0.38 [-2.16, 2.35]4.22 [2.06, 5.91]14% [0%, 25%]36%59%+0.02-0.062026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.95 [3.12, 4.96]2.60+3.02 [1.50, 4.69]4.39 [3.51, 5.32]9% [0%, 27%]14%41%-0.67-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.95 [3.03, 5.15]2.60+3.02 [1.29, 5.12]4.39 [3.48, 5.52]9% [0%, 33%]14%41%-0.67-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.95 [3.03, 5.24]2.60+3.02 [1.23, 5.19]4.39 [3.47, 5.55]9% [0%, 31%]14%41%-0.67-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.95 [3.03, 5.19]2.60+3.02 [1.24, 5.19]4.39 [3.48, 5.51]9% [0%, 31%]14%41%-0.67-0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC4.43 [3.65, 5.45]2.63+3.70 [2.17, 5.30]4.93 [4.10, 5.92]5% [0%, 12%]14%23%-0.87-0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC4.43 [3.62, 5.64]2.63+3.70 [1.94, 5.64]4.93 [4.05, 6.12]5% [0%, 13%]14%23%-0.87-0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC4.43 [3.57, 5.72]2.63+3.70 [1.83, 5.70]4.93 [4.04, 6.14]5% [0%, 14%]14%23%-0.87-0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC4.43 [3.63, 5.71]2.63+3.70 [1.84, 5.71]4.93 [4.05, 6.14]5% [0%, 14%]14%23%-0.87-0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.72 [2.73, 5.22]2.35+3.16 [1.63, 5.15]4.47 [3.16, 5.94]9% [0%, 22%]27%45%-0.57-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.72 [2.70, 5.65]2.35+3.16 [1.49, 5.63]4.47 [3.12, 6.19]9% [0%, 22%]27%45%-0.57-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.72 [2.71, 5.72]2.35+3.16 [1.29, 5.71]4.47 [3.11, 6.27]9% [0%, 25%]27%45%-0.57-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.72 [2.56, 5.79]2.35+3.16 [1.26, 5.79]4.47 [2.97, 6.22]9% [0%, 29%]27%45%-0.57-0.032026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.20 [3.24, 5.64]2.27+3.63 [2.03, 5.58]4.78 [3.64, 6.17]5% [0%, 12%]9%32%-0.78+0.012026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.20 [3.19, 6.07]2.27+3.63 [1.88, 6.07]4.78 [3.60, 6.41]5% [0%, 13%]9%32%-0.78+0.012026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.20 [3.18, 6.08]2.27+3.63 [1.71, 6.08]4.78 [3.60, 6.47]5% [0%, 14%]9%32%-0.78+0.012026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC4.20 [3.11, 6.09]2.27+3.63 [1.60, 6.09]4.78 [3.41, 6.41]5% [0%, 14%]9%32%-0.78+0.012026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: +3.45 °F2026-08-10: -3.69 °F2026-08-11: +2.04 °F2026-08-12: +2.79 °F2026-08-13: +2.52 °F2026-08-14: +3.31 °F2026-08-15: -1.35 °F2026-08-16: -0.02 °F2026-08-17: +0.24 °F2026-08-18: -2.12 °F2026-08-19: +1.61 °F2026-08-20: +2.28 °F2026-08-21: +4.78 °F2026-08-22: -11.26 °F2026-08-23: -5.39 °F2026-08-24: -4.14 °F2026-08-25: +7.37 °F2026-08-26: +8.96 °F2026-08-27: -1.26 °F2026-08-28: +4.2 °F2026-08-29: -0.29 °F2026-08-30: +0.06 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.06
2026-08-29-0.29
2026-08-28+4.20
2026-08-27-1.26
2026-08-26+8.96
2026-08-25+7.37
2026-08-24-4.14
2026-08-23-5.39
2026-08-22-11.26
2026-08-21+4.78
2026-08-20+2.28
2026-08-19+1.61
2026-08-18-2.12
2026-08-17+0.24
2026-08-16-0.02
2026-08-15-1.35
2026-08-14+3.31
2026-08-13+2.52
2026-08-12+2.79
2026-08-11+2.04
2026-08-10-3.69
2026-08-09+3.45

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 6 days4 to 6 °F: 2 days6 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 10 °F: 1 day10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.65 · P90 |e| 7.17 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.002
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.006
+4.00+6.002
+6.00+8.001
+8.00+10.001
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.32 +0.64

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
NCEP GFS2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
NCEP GFS2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
NCEP GFS2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -1.48 [-3.91, -0.29] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -5.18 [-7.28, -3.05] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 +0.82 [-0.71, 2.43] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.01 [-1.76, 1.50] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence