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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 8

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.63 [1.15, 3.35]2.67-1.02 [-1.74, 0.15]3.35 [1.63, 3.87]24% [4%, 50%]41%53%+0.33+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.63 [0.83, 3.40]2.67-1.02 [-1.76, 0.70]3.35 [0.90, 3.91]24% [0%, 50%]41%53%+0.33+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.63 [0.88, 3.41]2.67-1.02 [-1.84, 0.77]3.35 [1.00, 3.90]24% [0%, 50%]41%53%+0.33+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.63 [0.83, 3.48]2.67-1.02 [-1.72, 0.67]3.35 [0.90, 3.93]24% [0%, 50%]41%53%+0.33+0.262026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d17 1 QC2.66 [1.35, 3.30]2.58-1.33 [-2.03, -0.19]3.34 [1.79, 3.84]29% [10%, 67%]53%53%+0.33+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d17 1 QC2.66 [0.71, 3.34]2.58-1.33 [-2.06, 0.37]3.34 [0.71, 3.90]29% [10%, 100%]53%53%+0.33+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d17 1 QC2.66 [0.71, 3.34]2.58-1.33 [-2.12, 0.64]3.34 [0.71, 3.89]29% [8%, 100%]53%53%+0.33+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall17 1 QC2.66 [0.71, 3.35]2.58-1.33 [-2.04, 0.39]3.34 [0.71, 3.91]29% [8%, 100%]53%53%+0.33+0.282026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC2.48 [1.19, 3.51]2.30-0.95 [-1.70, 0.42]3.09 [1.45, 3.98]24% [0%, 63%]47%65%+0.37+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC2.48 [0.95, 3.60]2.30-0.95 [-1.74, 0.62]3.09 [0.95, 4.03]24% [0%, 100%]47%65%+0.37+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC2.48 [0.95, 3.62]2.30-0.95 [-1.76, 0.95]3.09 [0.95, 4.08]24% [0%, 100%]47%65%+0.37+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC2.48 [0.95, 3.69]2.30-0.95 [-1.71, 0.77]3.09 [0.95, 4.17]24% [0%, 87%]47%65%+0.37+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.68 [1.27, 3.68]2.32-1.33 [-2.09, 0.01]3.29 [1.57, 4.17]29% [10%, 67%]41%65%+0.32+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.68 [0.61, 3.77]2.32-1.33 [-2.14, 0.29]3.29 [0.61, 4.24]29% [10%, 100%]41%65%+0.32+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.68 [0.61, 3.80]2.32-1.33 [-2.17, 0.59]3.29 [0.61, 4.34]29% [8%, 100%]41%65%+0.32+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC2.68 [0.64, 3.90]2.32-1.33 [-2.10, 0.36]3.29 [0.65, 4.40]29% [8%, 100%]41%65%+0.32+0.362026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.79 [2.81, 5.80]2.02+3.79 [2.80, 5.80]4.46 [3.26, 6.29]6% [0%, 13%]29%47%-0.65+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.79 [2.76, 6.60]2.02+3.79 [2.75, 6.60]4.46 [3.18, 6.60]6% [0%, 14%]29%47%-0.65+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.79 [2.71, 6.60]2.02+3.79 [2.71, 6.60]4.46 [3.17, 6.60]6% [0%, 14%]29%47%-0.65+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.79 [2.72, 6.60]2.02+3.79 [2.72, 6.60]4.46 [3.12, 6.61]6% [0%, 14%]29%47%-0.65+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d17 1 QC3.93 [2.96, 5.98]1.99+3.93 [2.96, 5.98]4.58 [3.36, 6.47]6% [0%, 13%]24%47%-0.71+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d17 1 QC3.93 [2.89, 6.81]1.99+3.93 [2.89, 6.81]4.58 [3.27, 6.81]6% [0%, 14%]24%47%-0.71+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d17 1 QC3.93 [2.85, 6.81]1.99+3.93 [2.85, 6.81]4.58 [3.24, 6.81]6% [0%, 14%]24%47%-0.71+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall17 1 QC3.93 [2.88, 6.81]1.99+3.93 [2.88, 6.81]4.58 [3.22, 6.81]6% [0%, 14%]24%47%-0.71+0.142026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.89 [2.80, 6.05]1.97+3.86 [2.76, 6.05]4.48 [3.28, 6.20]18% [0%, 36%]18%41%-0.70+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.89 [2.74, 6.48]1.97+3.86 [2.70, 6.48]4.48 [3.24, 6.62]18% [0%, 37%]18%41%-0.70+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.89 [2.75, 6.48]1.97+3.86 [2.69, 6.48]4.48 [3.23, 6.62]18% [0%, 38%]18%41%-0.70+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.89 [2.66, 6.45]1.97+3.86 [2.60, 6.45]4.48 [3.15, 6.54]18% [0%, 40%]18%41%-0.70+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.96 [2.88, 6.19]1.95+3.94 [2.85, 6.19]4.56 [3.37, 6.36]12% [0%, 26%]24%41%-0.73+0.162026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.96 [2.78, 6.82]1.95+3.94 [2.75, 6.82]4.56 [3.31, 6.92]12% [0%, 25%]24%41%-0.73+0.162026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.96 [2.72, 6.84]1.95+3.94 [2.69, 6.84]4.56 [3.27, 6.98]12% [0%, 27%]24%41%-0.73+0.162026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.96 [2.72, 6.69]1.95+3.94 [2.69, 6.69]4.56 [3.22, 6.78]12% [0%, 29%]24%41%-0.73+0.162026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-09: +1.02 °F2026-08-15: +0.07 °F2026-08-16: -1.45 °F2026-08-17: -3.57 °F2026-08-18: +0.16 °F2026-08-19: -0.17 °F2026-08-20: -6.64 °F2026-08-21: +3.95 °F2026-08-22: -3 °F2026-08-23: -3.61 °F2026-08-24: -4.66 °F2026-08-25: +3.1 °F2026-08-26: +2.24 °F2026-08-27: +2.61 °F2026-08-28: -6.94 °F2026-08-29: -1.05 °F2026-08-30: +0.53 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.53
2026-08-29-1.05
2026-08-28-6.94
2026-08-27+2.61
2026-08-26+2.24
2026-08-25+3.10
2026-08-24-4.66
2026-08-23-3.61
2026-08-22-3.00
2026-08-21+3.95
2026-08-20-6.64
2026-08-19-0.17
2026-08-18+0.16
2026-08-17-3.57
2026-08-16-1.45
2026-08-15+0.07
2026-08-14—
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09+1.02

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 8-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.61 · P90 |e| 5.45 °F-100+10 °Fn = 17 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.002
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08172.63 -1.02

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 17 -2.71 [-7.08, -1.58] yes
NCEP GFS 17 -0.82 [-2.43, 0.71] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 17 -6.63 [-7.87, -4.97] yes
Persistence (baseline) 17 -1.31 [-2.23, -0.76] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence