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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 8

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC8.51 [6.68, 10.05]2.83-8.51 [-10.05, -6.68]9.10 [7.06, 10.54]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.56+0.042026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC8.51 [6.32, 10.25]2.83-8.51 [-10.25, -6.32]9.10 [6.50, 10.69]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.56+0.042026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC7.99 [6.16, 9.64]3.40-7.43 [-9.50, -4.82]8.62 [6.48, 10.24]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.75+0.292026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC7.99 [6.15, 9.60]3.40-7.43 [-9.50, -4.54]8.62 [6.45, 10.19]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.75+0.292026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC8.87 [7.10, 10.38]2.81-8.87 [-10.38, -7.10]9.42 [7.37, 10.86]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.67+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC8.87 [6.74, 10.55]2.81-8.87 [-10.55, -6.74]9.42 [6.88, 11.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.67+0.052026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC8.29 [6.42, 9.95]3.36-7.79 [-9.84, -5.17]8.91 [6.75, 10.53]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.81+0.302026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC8.29 [6.39, 9.90]3.36-7.79 [-9.81, -4.94]8.91 [6.76, 10.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.81+0.302026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC8.87 [7.15, 10.32]2.68-8.87 [-10.32, -7.15]9.34 [7.51, 10.65]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.67+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC8.87 [6.73, 10.52]2.68-8.87 [-10.52, -6.73]9.34 [7.04, 10.83]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.67+0.092026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC8.68 [6.95, 10.07]3.25-8.35 [-10.07, -6.30]9.24 [7.42, 10.45]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.232026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC8.68 [7.07, 10.08]3.25-8.35 [-9.99, -6.18]9.24 [7.54, 10.51]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.09+0.232026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC9.19 [7.52, 10.62]2.65-9.19 [-10.62, -7.52]9.63 [7.87, 10.94]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.77+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC9.19 [7.13, 10.82]2.65-9.19 [-10.82, -7.13]9.63 [7.41, 11.10]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.77+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC8.97 [7.31, 10.37]3.22-8.68 [-10.37, -6.69]9.52 [7.76, 10.73]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.16+0.242026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC8.97 [7.44, 10.37]3.22-8.68 [-10.26, -6.58]9.52 [7.83, 10.80]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.16+0.242026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.26 [1.48, 3.00]1.95-1.22 [-2.60, 0.46]2.75 [1.95, 3.38]27% [11%, 46%]50%73%+0.05+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.26 [1.46, 3.02]1.95-1.22 [-2.74, 0.82]2.75 [1.96, 3.38]27% [9%, 46%]50%73%+0.05+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.51 [1.62, 3.55]2.48-0.22 [-2.17, 2.16]3.16 [2.11, 4.27]29% [12%, 45%]46%64%+0.28+0.332026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.51 [1.62, 3.52]2.48-0.22 [-2.12, 2.44]3.16 [2.15, 4.36]29% [12%, 46%]46%64%+0.28+0.332026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.25 [1.50, 2.96]1.95-1.20 [-2.58, 0.49]2.72 [1.96, 3.34]27% [11%, 46%]50%73%+0.05+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.25 [1.48, 2.99]1.95-1.20 [-2.68, 0.86]2.72 [1.96, 3.35]27% [9%, 46%]50%73%+0.05+0.152026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC2.46 [1.60, 3.43]2.42-0.26 [-2.17, 2.07]3.09 [2.11, 4.12]29% [12%, 45%]46%64%+0.30+0.342026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC2.46 [1.64, 3.40]2.42-0.26 [-2.11, 2.24]3.09 [2.14, 4.16]29% [12%, 46%]46%64%+0.30+0.342026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.55 [1.24, 3.75]2.06-2.00 [-3.61, -0.14]3.22 [1.62, 4.31]32% [7%, 61%]45%64%-0.08+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.55 [1.06, 4.11]2.06-2.00 [-3.83, 0.51]3.22 [1.48, 4.61]32% [6%, 71%]45%64%-0.08+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.63 [1.30, 3.89]2.42-1.24 [-3.15, 0.99]3.47 [1.63, 4.70]33% [10%, 63%]48%67%+0.20+0.292026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.63 [1.41, 3.83]2.42-1.24 [-3.18, 1.41]3.47 [1.78, 4.72]33% [10%, 59%]48%67%+0.20+0.292026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.49 [1.20, 3.65]2.05-1.95 [-3.57, -0.09]3.17 [1.61, 4.22]41% [14%, 72%]50%64%-0.05+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.49 [1.05, 3.98]2.05-1.95 [-3.75, 0.57]3.17 [1.48, 4.50]41% [10%, 79%]50%64%-0.05+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC2.57 [1.27, 3.74]2.39-1.23 [-3.12, 0.98]3.38 [1.63, 4.55]37% [11%, 67%]52%67%+0.22+0.302026-01-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC2.57 [1.38, 3.72]2.39-1.23 [-3.15, 1.33]3.38 [1.77, 4.55]37% [10%, 64%]52%67%+0.22+0.302026-01-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: -5.17 °F2026-08-10: -7.86 °F2026-08-11: -4.56 °F2026-08-12: -6.3 °F2026-08-13: -5.09 °F2026-08-14: -5.93 °F2026-08-15: -6.58 °F2026-08-16: -10.23 °F2026-08-17: -10.98 °F2026-08-18: -9.57 °F2026-08-19: -11.92 °F2026-08-20: -10.63 °F2026-08-21: -4.11 °F2026-08-22: -14.53 °F2026-08-23: -12.56 °F2026-08-24: -13.5 °F2026-08-25: -7.73 °F2026-08-26: -6.09 °F2026-08-27: -3.05 °F2026-08-28: -12.22 °F2026-08-29: -9.71 °F2026-08-30: -8.82 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-8.82
2026-08-29-9.71
2026-08-28-12.22
2026-08-27-3.05
2026-08-26-6.09
2026-08-25-7.73
2026-08-24-13.50
2026-08-23-12.56
2026-08-22-14.53
2026-08-21-4.11
2026-08-20-10.63
2026-08-19-11.92
2026-08-18-9.57
2026-08-17-10.98
2026-08-16-10.23
2026-08-15-6.58
2026-08-14-5.93
2026-08-13-5.09
2026-08-12-6.30
2026-08-11-4.56
2026-08-10-7.86
2026-08-09-5.17

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 3 days-12 to -10 °F: 5 days-10 to -8 °F: 4 days-8 to -6 °F: 5 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 7.79 · P90 |e| 12.32 °F-200+20 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.003
-12.00-10.005
-10.00-8.004
-8.00-6.005
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08228.51 -8.51
2026-0166.11 -3.49

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-09 → 2026-08-30 28
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-09 → 2026-08-30 28
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-09 → 2026-08-30 27
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-09 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +3.70 [0.70, 5.04] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +5.18 [3.05, 7.28] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 +6.63 [4.97, 7.87] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +5.19 [4.24, 6.10] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence