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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 8

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 8

Target day = initialization date + 8 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.80 [3.35, 6.58]3.51-4.27 [-6.23, -2.94]6.11 [4.13, 7.83]18% [7%, 29%]32%41%-0.45-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.80 [3.32, 6.93]3.51-4.27 [-6.58, -2.88]6.11 [4.13, 8.06]18% [0%, 29%]32%41%-0.45-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.80 [3.33, 6.81]3.51-4.27 [-6.59, -2.86]6.11 [4.11, 8.08]18% [0%, 29%]32%41%-0.45-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.80 [3.11, 6.82]3.51-4.27 [-6.38, -2.68]6.11 [3.78, 8.08]18% [0%, 29%]32%41%-0.45-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC5.21 [3.85, 7.04]3.53-4.86 [-6.82, -3.52]6.55 [4.61, 8.30]14% [6%, 21%]23%41%-0.57-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC5.21 [3.80, 7.33]3.53-4.86 [-7.16, -3.46]6.55 [4.60, 8.54]14% [0%, 20%]23%41%-0.57-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC5.21 [3.81, 7.29]3.53-4.86 [-7.19, -3.42]6.55 [4.53, 8.55]14% [0%, 21%]23%41%-0.57-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC5.21 [3.58, 7.29]3.53-4.86 [-6.99, -3.26]6.55 [4.21, 8.56]14% [0%, 21%]23%41%-0.57-0.192026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.24 [3.27, 5.36]2.66-3.97 [-5.20, -2.99]5.18 [4.09, 6.17]23% [8%, 38%]27%32%-0.28+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.24 [3.14, 5.57]2.66-3.97 [-5.45, -2.95]5.18 [4.11, 6.35]23% [6%, 37%]27%32%-0.28+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.24 [3.15, 5.60]2.66-3.97 [-5.57, -3.02]5.18 [4.01, 6.36]23% [0%, 36%]27%32%-0.28+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.24 [3.13, 5.57]2.66-3.97 [-5.50, -2.94]5.18 [3.88, 6.34]23% [0%, 36%]27%32%-0.28+0.102026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC4.77 [3.80, 5.90]2.62-4.56 [-5.76, -3.59]5.62 [4.53, 6.64]14% [0%, 27%]27%32%-0.44+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC4.77 [3.66, 6.10]2.62-4.56 [-6.00, -3.57]5.62 [4.53, 6.82]14% [0%, 30%]27%32%-0.44+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC4.77 [3.69, 6.14]2.62-4.56 [-6.13, -3.60]5.62 [4.45, 6.83]14% [0%, 29%]27%32%-0.44+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC4.77 [3.67, 6.11]2.62-4.56 [-6.07, -3.53]5.62 [4.35, 6.79]14% [0%, 30%]27%32%-0.44+0.112026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.06 [1.15, 3.10]1.99-1.59 [-2.83, -0.62]3.08 [1.39, 4.25]45% [27%, 57%]68%82%+0.13+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.06 [1.07, 3.20]1.99-1.59 [-2.86, -0.52]3.08 [1.30, 4.31]45% [20%, 57%]68%82%+0.13+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.06 [0.99, 3.36]1.99-1.59 [-2.97, -0.50]3.08 [1.28, 4.48]45% [22%, 57%]68%82%+0.13+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.06 [1.03, 3.53]1.99-1.59 [-3.33, -0.48]3.08 [1.29, 4.66]45% [17%, 57%]68%82%+0.13+0.132026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.13 [1.19, 3.21]2.01-1.79 [-3.02, -0.78]3.20 [1.46, 4.41]41% [22%, 55%]68%82%+0.10+0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.13 [1.10, 3.33]2.01-1.79 [-3.09, -0.68]3.20 [1.36, 4.47]41% [19%, 57%]68%82%+0.10+0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.13 [1.03, 3.48]2.01-1.79 [-3.21, -0.66]3.20 [1.34, 4.63]41% [16%, 57%]68%82%+0.10+0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.13 [1.06, 3.65]2.01-1.79 [-3.54, -0.64]3.20 [1.33, 4.81]41% [17%, 57%]68%82%+0.10+0.122026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.22 [1.52, 2.88]1.75-1.54 [-2.54, -0.68]2.75 [1.85, 3.41]27% [10%, 41%]45%73%+0.06+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.22 [1.35, 3.00]1.75-1.54 [-2.62, -0.48]2.75 [1.64, 3.48]27% [9%, 43%]45%73%+0.06+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.22 [1.35, 3.02]1.75-1.54 [-2.68, -0.47]2.75 [1.67, 3.52]27% [6%, 43%]45%73%+0.06+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.22 [1.38, 3.07]1.75-1.54 [-2.80, -0.42]2.75 [1.67, 3.51]27% [0%, 44%]45%73%+0.06+0.242026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.36 [1.61, 3.05]1.76-1.77 [-2.78, -0.87]2.89 [1.92, 3.57]27% [10%, 41%]45%68%+0.00+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.36 [1.43, 3.18]1.76-1.77 [-2.85, -0.66]2.89 [1.69, 3.66]27% [9%, 43%]45%68%+0.00+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.36 [1.43, 3.19]1.76-1.77 [-2.95, -0.65]2.89 [1.71, 3.66]27% [6%, 43%]45%68%+0.00+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.36 [1.47, 3.24]1.76-1.77 [-3.04, -0.59]2.89 [1.72, 3.66]27% [0%, 44%]45%68%+0.00+0.232026-08-09 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 8, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-09: -10.69 °F2026-08-10: -9.88 °F2026-08-11: -1.92 °F2026-08-12: -0.71 °F2026-08-13: -0.33 °F2026-08-14: -1.95 °F2026-08-15: -1.97 °F2026-08-16: -4.07 °F2026-08-17: -4.98 °F2026-08-18: -5.24 °F2026-08-19: -3.23 °F2026-08-20: -8.75 °F2026-08-21: +0.59 °F2026-08-22: -5.64 °F2026-08-23: -14.95 °F2026-08-24: -9.29 °F2026-08-25: +2.64 °F2026-08-26: +2.03 °F2026-08-27: +0.63 °F2026-08-28: -5.38 °F2026-08-29: -6.06 °F2026-08-30: -4.73 °F2026-08-092026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (22 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.73
2026-08-29-6.06
2026-08-28-5.38
2026-08-27+0.63
2026-08-26+2.03
2026-08-25+2.64
2026-08-24-9.29
2026-08-23-14.95
2026-08-22-5.64
2026-08-21+0.59
2026-08-20-8.75
2026-08-19-3.23
2026-08-18-5.24
2026-08-17-4.98
2026-08-16-4.07
2026-08-15-1.97
2026-08-14-1.95
2026-08-13-0.33
2026-08-12-0.71
2026-08-11-1.92
2026-08-10-9.88
2026-08-09-10.69

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 8-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 3 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.4 · P90 |e| 9.82 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.003
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.001
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08224.80 -4.27

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-09 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 22 +1.48 [0.29, 3.91] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 22 -3.70 [-5.04, -0.70] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 17 +2.71 [1.58, 7.08] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +1.48 [0.23, 3.76] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 8, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 8. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/8/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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