Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · NCEP GFS · lead day 2

KMSP · gfs · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.89 [2.97, 5.05]3.49+1.91 [0.77, 3.21]4.82 [3.61, 6.02]14% [7%, 24%]29%50%-0.24-0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.89 [2.95, 5.27]3.49+1.91 [0.69, 3.50]4.82 [3.59, 6.21]14% [4%, 27%]29%50%-0.24-0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.89 [2.93, 5.21]3.49+1.91 [0.70, 3.49]4.82 [3.57, 6.19]14% [3%, 29%]29%50%-0.24-0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.89 [2.95, 5.33]3.49+1.91 [0.74, 3.67]4.82 [3.58, 6.26]14% [0%, 27%]29%50%-0.24-0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC4.22 [3.20, 5.51]3.71+2.27 [1.16, 3.67]5.17 [3.97, 6.41]14% [4%, 25%]25%36%-0.34-0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC4.22 [3.10, 5.76]3.71+2.27 [1.13, 3.83]5.17 [3.92, 6.66]14% [0%, 27%]25%36%-0.34-0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC4.22 [3.11, 5.65]3.71+2.27 [1.08, 3.67]5.17 [3.90, 6.55]14% [0%, 29%]25%36%-0.34-0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC4.22 [3.10, 5.75]3.71+2.27 [1.10, 4.06]5.17 [3.89, 6.64]14% [0%, 27%]25%36%-0.34-0.172026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.64 [2.47, 4.89]3.43+1.61 [0.49, 3.10]4.71 [3.17, 5.97]11% [0%, 23%]43%61%-0.16-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.64 [2.43, 5.01]3.43+1.61 [0.41, 3.37]4.71 [3.08, 6.11]11% [0%, 24%]43%61%-0.16-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.64 [2.40, 4.99]3.43+1.61 [0.37, 3.11]4.71 [3.08, 6.08]11% [0%, 27%]43%61%-0.16-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.64 [2.37, 5.10]3.43+1.61 [0.36, 3.31]4.71 [2.91, 6.18]11% [0%, 26%]43%61%-0.16-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC3.66 [2.36, 5.13]3.42+2.01 [0.98, 3.51]4.85 [3.21, 6.26]25% [13%, 38%]39%54%-0.17-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC3.66 [2.27, 5.24]3.42+2.01 [0.93, 3.79]4.85 [3.11, 6.48]25% [13%, 38%]39%54%-0.17-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC3.66 [2.21, 5.24]3.42+2.01 [0.82, 3.53]4.85 [3.07, 6.43]25% [13%, 40%]39%54%-0.17-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC3.66 [2.22, 5.37]3.42+2.01 [0.87, 3.63]4.85 [3.04, 6.53]25% [11%, 40%]39%54%-0.17-0.082026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.27 [1.81, 2.75]2.27-0.03 [-0.77, 0.77]2.75 [2.30, 3.20]29% [11%, 44%]43%68%+0.53+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.27 [1.80, 2.88]2.27-0.03 [-0.87, 0.78]2.75 [2.25, 3.34]29% [10%, 45%]43%68%+0.53+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.27 [1.77, 2.89]2.27-0.03 [-0.89, 0.83]2.75 [2.20, 3.36]29% [8%, 45%]43%68%+0.53+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.27 [1.71, 3.03]2.27-0.03 [-0.95, 0.75]2.75 [2.22, 3.45]29% [7%, 48%]43%68%+0.53+0.542026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC2.68 [2.08, 3.30]2.58+1.00 [0.09, 1.96]3.19 [2.58, 3.72]21% [7%, 36%]46%57%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC2.68 [2.00, 3.38]2.58+1.00 [-0.05, 2.04]3.19 [2.49, 3.75]21% [0%, 35%]46%57%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC2.68 [1.99, 3.42]2.58+1.00 [-0.06, 2.04]3.19 [2.47, 3.76]21% [0%, 36%]46%57%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC2.68 [1.95, 3.43]2.58+1.00 [-0.11, 1.94]3.19 [2.41, 3.79]21% [0%, 37%]46%57%+0.45+0.472026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.32 [1.88, 2.74]2.32-0.12 [-1.28, 0.99]2.79 [2.30, 3.29]21% [7%, 35%]46%71%+0.52+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.32 [1.87, 2.82]2.32-0.12 [-1.41, 1.06]2.79 [2.26, 3.36]21% [7%, 36%]46%71%+0.52+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.32 [1.78, 2.82]2.32-0.12 [-1.53, 1.04]2.79 [2.21, 3.37]21% [7%, 38%]46%71%+0.52+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.32 [1.84, 2.86]2.32-0.12 [-1.59, 0.99]2.79 [2.23, 3.37]21% [7%, 36%]46%71%+0.52+0.522026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC2.76 [2.16, 3.46]2.66+1.05 [-0.26, 2.28]3.31 [2.42, 4.12]11% [3%, 20%]32%57%+0.43+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC2.76 [2.07, 3.54]2.66+1.05 [-0.34, 2.35]3.31 [2.32, 4.20]11% [0%, 19%]32%57%+0.43+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC2.76 [2.06, 3.53]2.66+1.05 [-0.54, 2.32]3.31 [2.26, 4.18]11% [0%, 20%]32%57%+0.43+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC2.76 [2.07, 3.51]2.66+1.05 [-0.63, 2.27]3.31 [2.30, 4.15]11% [0%, 20%]32%57%+0.43+0.452026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-03: -2.19 °F2026-08-04: +6.57 °F2026-08-05: +4.15 °F2026-08-06: +2.8 °F2026-08-07: +10.95 °F2026-08-08: +6.18 °F2026-08-09: -10.59 °F2026-08-10: +2.65 °F2026-08-11: +0.96 °F2026-08-12: -3.17 °F2026-08-13: +5 °F2026-08-14: +2.82 °F2026-08-15: +3.89 °F2026-08-16: -1.09 °F2026-08-17: +2.97 °F2026-08-18: -3.87 °F2026-08-19: -0.64 °F2026-08-20: +7.49 °F2026-08-21: -3.34 °F2026-08-22: -1.63 °F2026-08-23: +1.93 °F2026-08-24: -1.16 °F2026-08-25: +7.83 °F2026-08-26: +2.38 °F2026-08-27: +0.29 °F2026-08-28: +4.67 °F2026-08-29: +0.53 °F2026-08-30: +7.12 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+7.12
2026-08-29+0.53
2026-08-28+4.67
2026-08-27+0.29
2026-08-26+2.38
2026-08-25+7.83
2026-08-24-1.16
2026-08-23+1.93
2026-08-22-1.63
2026-08-21-3.34
2026-08-20+7.49
2026-08-19-0.64
2026-08-18-3.87
2026-08-17+2.97
2026-08-16-1.09
2026-08-15+3.89
2026-08-14+2.82
2026-08-13+5.00
2026-08-12-3.17
2026-08-11+0.96
2026-08-10+2.65
2026-08-09-10.59
2026-08-08+6.18
2026-08-07+10.95
2026-08-06+2.80
2026-08-05+4.15
2026-08-04+6.57
2026-08-03-2.19

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KMSP, lead day 2-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 6 days4 to 6 °F: 3 days6 to 8 °F: 5 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.07 · P90 |e| 7.59 °F-200+20 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.000
-6.00-4.000
-4.00-2.004
-2.00+0.004
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.006
+4.00+6.003
+6.00+8.005
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08283.89 +1.91

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
NCEP GFS2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 28 -0.08 [-1.75, 2.61] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -0.67 [-0.67, -0.67] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 +1.24 [1.24, 1.24] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -2.27 [-4.24, 0.52] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.15 [-1.06, 2.50] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +3.00 [3.00, 3.00] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 +0.74 [-0.25, 1.96] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP gfs lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model gfs, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/gfs/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence