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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 2

KMSP · aifs_single · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.96 [2.86, 4.78]2.19-3.63 [-4.46, -2.67]4.66 [3.49, 5.47]14% [0%, 32%]14%36%-0.26+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.96 [2.64, 4.85]2.19-3.63 [-4.58, -2.43]4.66 [3.15, 5.45]14% [0%, 33%]14%36%-0.26+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.96 [2.71, 4.94]2.19-3.63 [-4.73, -2.52]4.66 [3.29, 5.54]14% [0%, 33%]14%36%-0.26+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.96 [2.78, 4.88]2.19-3.63 [-4.66, -2.55]4.66 [3.33, 5.49]14% [0%, 35%]14%36%-0.26+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d28 1 QC3.89 [2.70, 4.77]2.28-3.49 [-4.42, -2.39]4.61 [3.38, 5.44]11% [0%, 21%]18%43%-0.24+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d28 1 QC3.89 [2.44, 4.84]2.28-3.49 [-4.61, -2.08]4.61 [3.02, 5.44]11% [0%, 23%]18%43%-0.24+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d28 1 QC3.89 [2.51, 4.94]2.28-3.49 [-4.72, -2.22]4.61 [3.19, 5.53]11% [0%, 23%]18%43%-0.24+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall28 1 QC3.89 [2.59, 4.93]2.28-3.49 [-4.65, -2.23]4.61 [3.20, 5.49]11% [0%, 24%]18%43%-0.24+0.282026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC3.83 [2.93, 4.64]2.10-3.67 [-4.47, -2.76]4.56 [3.57, 5.34]14% [4%, 25%]29%39%-0.22+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC3.83 [2.67, 4.85]2.10-3.67 [-4.71, -2.53]4.56 [3.25, 5.50]14% [0%, 26%]29%39%-0.22+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC3.83 [2.77, 4.88]2.10-3.67 [-4.77, -2.61]4.56 [3.32, 5.54]14% [0%, 25%]29%39%-0.22+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC3.83 [2.75, 4.85]2.10-3.67 [-4.74, -2.59]4.56 [3.31, 5.49]14% [0%, 26%]29%39%-0.22+0.342026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d28 1 QC3.73 [2.75, 4.62]2.19-3.54 [-4.46, -2.50]4.50 [3.47, 5.32]18% [4%, 30%]25%43%-0.19+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d28 1 QC3.73 [2.46, 4.86]2.19-3.54 [-4.75, -2.20]4.50 [3.04, 5.53]18% [3%, 29%]25%43%-0.19+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC3.73 [2.55, 4.91]2.19-3.54 [-4.80, -2.25]4.50 [3.11, 5.55]18% [0%, 29%]25%43%-0.19+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC3.73 [2.52, 4.86]2.19-3.54 [-4.75, -2.29]4.50 [3.11, 5.50]18% [0%, 29%]25%43%-0.19+0.312026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.71 [2.24, 3.16]1.78-2.22 [-2.88, -1.50]3.16 [2.64, 3.62]21% [12%, 33%]29%61%+0.44+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.71 [2.16, 3.25]1.78-2.22 [-2.95, -1.45]3.16 [2.55, 3.72]21% [11%, 37%]29%61%+0.44+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.71 [2.17, 3.21]1.78-2.22 [-2.91, -1.42]3.16 [2.54, 3.68]21% [10%, 36%]29%61%+0.44+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.71 [2.09, 3.22]1.78-2.22 [-2.88, -1.50]3.16 [2.55, 3.71]21% [10%, 37%]29%61%+0.44+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d28 1 QC2.81 [2.31, 3.26]1.76-2.38 [-3.01, -1.72]3.27 [2.75, 3.74]21% [12%, 33%]32%64%+0.42+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d28 1 QC2.81 [2.26, 3.36]1.76-2.38 [-3.04, -1.65]3.27 [2.68, 3.84]21% [11%, 37%]32%64%+0.42+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d28 1 QC2.81 [2.26, 3.32]1.76-2.38 [-3.03, -1.62]3.27 [2.67, 3.80]21% [10%, 36%]32%64%+0.42+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall28 1 QC2.81 [2.21, 3.37]1.76-2.38 [-3.00, -1.69]3.27 [2.67, 3.84]21% [10%, 37%]32%64%+0.42+0.642026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d28 1 QC2.49 [2.03, 2.92]1.83-2.04 [-2.63, -1.41]2.95 [2.47, 3.32]21% [7%, 37%]43%54%+0.49+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d28 1 QC2.49 [1.98, 3.01]1.83-2.04 [-2.68, -1.35]2.95 [2.44, 3.41]21% [7%, 42%]43%54%+0.49+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.49 [1.93, 2.96]1.83-2.04 [-2.65, -1.34]2.95 [2.39, 3.36]21% [5%, 44%]43%54%+0.49+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.49 [1.93, 2.98]1.83-2.04 [-2.61, -1.36]2.95 [2.40, 3.36]21% [5%, 43%]43%54%+0.49+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d28 1 QC2.57 [2.10, 3.01]1.81-2.21 [-2.76, -1.62]3.07 [2.62, 3.42]18% [7%, 32%]43%57%+0.47+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d28 1 QC2.57 [2.03, 3.09]1.81-2.21 [-2.80, -1.54]3.07 [2.57, 3.49]18% [5%, 33%]43%57%+0.47+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC2.57 [2.01, 3.06]1.81-2.21 [-2.78, -1.53]3.07 [2.54, 3.47]18% [5%, 33%]43%57%+0.47+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC2.57 [2.00, 3.08]1.81-2.21 [-2.76, -1.56]3.07 [2.55, 3.46]18% [4%, 33%]43%57%+0.47+0.632026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-03: -3.09 °F2026-08-04: -2.66 °F2026-08-05: -3.18 °F2026-08-06: -0.48 °F2026-08-07: +0.51 °F2026-08-08: -0.55 °F2026-08-09: -3.23 °F2026-08-10: -4.89 °F2026-08-11: -4.54 °F2026-08-12: -7.35 °F2026-08-13: +2 °F2026-08-14: -3.55 °F2026-08-15: -2.93 °F2026-08-16: -6.47 °F2026-08-17: -5.29 °F2026-08-18: -10.39 °F2026-08-19: -2.58 °F2026-08-20: +2.21 °F2026-08-21: -3.13 °F2026-08-22: -2.05 °F2026-08-23: -4.38 °F2026-08-24: -10.19 °F2026-08-25: -0.98 °F2026-08-26: -4.46 °F2026-08-27: -4.89 °F2026-08-28: -4.57 °F2026-08-29: -4.69 °F2026-08-30: -5.69 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.69
2026-08-29-4.69
2026-08-28-4.57
2026-08-27-4.89
2026-08-26-4.46
2026-08-25-0.98
2026-08-24-10.19
2026-08-23-4.38
2026-08-22-2.05
2026-08-21-3.13
2026-08-20+2.21
2026-08-19-2.58
2026-08-18-10.39
2026-08-17-5.29
2026-08-16-6.47
2026-08-15-2.93
2026-08-14-3.55
2026-08-13+2.00
2026-08-12-7.35
2026-08-11-4.54
2026-08-10-4.89
2026-08-09-3.23
2026-08-08-0.55
2026-08-07+0.51
2026-08-06-0.48
2026-08-05-3.18
2026-08-04-2.66
2026-08-03-3.09

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KMSP, lead day 2-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 2 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 9 days-4 to -2 °F: 9 days-2 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 2 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.39 · P90 |e| 6.73 °F-200+20 °Fn = 28 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.002
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.009
-4.00-2.009
-2.00+0.003
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.002
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08283.96 -3.63

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -2.10 [-2.10, -2.10] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -0.19 [-0.19, -0.19] yes
NCEP GFS 28 +0.08 [-2.61, 1.75] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 26 -2.35 [-3.03, -1.60] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.76 [-0.25, 1.46] no
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +1.58 [1.58, 1.58] yes
Persistence (baseline) 28 +0.82 [-1.09, 2.51] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP aifs_single lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model aifs_single, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/aifs_single/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence