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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Minneapolis-St Paul · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 2

KMSP · ifs_hres · lead 2

Target day = initialization date + 2 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.42 [2.68, 3.91]2.44-2.18 [-3.22, -0.85]3.77 [3.19, 4.19]5% [0%, 18%]23%41%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.42 [2.54, 4.02]2.44-2.18 [-3.33, -0.76]3.77 [3.01, 4.32]5% [0%, 22%]23%41%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.42 [2.53, 4.05]2.44-2.18 [-3.29, -0.63]3.77 [2.90, 4.30]5% [0%, 20%]23%41%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.42 [2.51, 4.09]2.44-2.18 [-3.54, -0.74]3.77 [3.03, 4.39]5% [0%, 20%]23%41%-0.23+0.122026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.97 [2.42, 3.43]2.50-1.14 [-2.35, 0.49]3.44 [2.89, 3.97]14% [0%, 27%]32%55%-0.07+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.97 [2.23, 3.53]2.50-1.14 [-2.46, 0.56]3.44 [2.66, 4.04]14% [0%, 27%]32%55%-0.07+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.97 [2.31, 3.53]2.50-1.14 [-2.49, 0.77]3.44 [2.70, 4.03]14% [0%, 30%]32%55%-0.07+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC2.97 [2.33, 3.60]2.50-1.14 [-2.70, 0.65]3.44 [2.80, 4.11]14% [0%, 29%]32%55%-0.07+0.102026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC4.11 [3.59, 4.57]2.52-2.99 [-4.08, -1.67]4.50 [4.02, 4.89]5% [0%, 13%]14%36%-0.39+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC4.11 [3.63, 4.58]2.52-2.99 [-4.18, -1.52]4.50 [3.99, 4.89]5% [0%, 12%]14%36%-0.39+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC4.11 [3.61, 4.65]2.52-2.99 [-4.20, -1.41]4.50 [3.96, 4.97]5% [0%, 14%]14%36%-0.39+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC4.11 [3.60, 4.61]2.52-2.99 [-4.16, -1.50]4.50 [3.92, 4.94]5% [0%, 13%]14%36%-0.39+0.142026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.58 [2.89, 4.11]2.82-2.03 [-3.31, -0.40]4.15 [3.40, 4.82]14% [0%, 36%]23%36%-0.21+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.58 [2.89, 4.11]2.82-2.03 [-3.48, -0.16]4.15 [3.39, 4.83]14% [0%, 39%]23%36%-0.21+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.58 [2.87, 4.18]2.82-2.03 [-3.45, -0.03]4.15 [3.37, 4.83]14% [0%, 38%]23%36%-0.21+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.58 [2.88, 4.15]2.82-2.03 [-3.47, -0.17]4.15 [3.35, 4.84]14% [0%, 41%]23%36%-0.21+0.032026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.81 [1.27, 2.33]1.74+0.63 [-0.14, 1.16]2.26 [1.64, 2.78]36% [14%, 59%]55%95%+0.64+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.81 [1.22, 2.47]1.74+0.63 [-0.47, 1.21]2.26 [1.59, 2.84]36% [0%, 61%]55%95%+0.64+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.81 [1.16, 2.48]1.74+0.63 [-0.42, 1.22]2.26 [1.52, 2.86]36% [0%, 64%]55%95%+0.64+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.81 [1.16, 2.50]1.74+0.63 [-0.51, 1.26]2.26 [1.53, 2.84]36% [0%, 65%]55%95%+0.64+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC1.88 [1.44, 2.30]1.74+1.01 [0.28, 1.45]2.35 [1.79, 2.79]32% [12%, 47%]59%77%+0.62+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC1.88 [1.42, 2.44]1.74+1.01 [0.10, 1.48]2.35 [1.76, 2.83]32% [0%, 47%]59%77%+0.62+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC1.88 [1.35, 2.41]1.74+1.01 [0.16, 1.51]2.35 [1.73, 2.82]32% [0%, 50%]59%77%+0.62+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC1.88 [1.40, 2.40]1.74+1.01 [-0.03, 1.51]2.35 [1.73, 2.82]32% [0%, 50%]59%77%+0.62+0.652026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC1.67 [0.81, 2.39]1.64-0.13 [-1.16, 0.55]2.18 [1.18, 2.78]41% [18%, 71%]64%77%+0.68+0.692026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC1.67 [0.63, 2.45]1.64-0.13 [-1.48, 0.61]2.18 [0.84, 2.84]41% [12%, 79%]64%77%+0.68+0.692026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC1.67 [0.51, 2.44]1.64-0.13 [-1.35, 0.63]2.18 [0.71, 2.84]41% [12%, 86%]64%77%+0.68+0.692026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC1.67 [0.56, 2.44]1.64-0.13 [-1.35, 0.63]2.18 [0.79, 2.84]41% [14%, 80%]64%77%+0.68+0.692026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC1.75 [0.82, 2.45]1.77+0.20 [-0.85, 0.88]2.31 [1.22, 2.90]45% [22%, 76%]59%77%+0.66+0.662026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC1.75 [0.63, 2.52]1.77+0.20 [-1.19, 0.88]2.31 [0.78, 2.97]45% [18%, 84%]59%77%+0.66+0.662026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC1.75 [0.49, 2.50]1.77+0.20 [-1.08, 0.89]2.31 [0.69, 2.95]45% [15%, 89%]59%77%+0.66+0.662026-08-03 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC1.75 [0.57, 2.51]1.77+0.20 [-1.19, 0.88]2.31 [0.73, 2.95]45% [17%, 86%]59%77%+0.66+0.662026-08-03 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 2, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-03: -6 °F2026-08-08: +0.6 °F2026-08-09: -1.1 °F2026-08-11: -2.76 °F2026-08-13: +5.46 °F2026-08-14: +1.6 °F2026-08-15: -1.31 °F2026-08-16: -4.07 °F2026-08-17: -4.22 °F2026-08-18: -6.23 °F2026-08-19: -3.3 °F2026-08-20: +3.94 °F2026-08-21: -3.77 °F2026-08-22: -3.17 °F2026-08-23: -2.93 °F2026-08-24: -5.56 °F2026-08-25: +2.05 °F2026-08-26: -5.44 °F2026-08-27: -3.92 °F2026-08-28: -2.64 °F2026-08-29: -3.31 °F2026-08-30: -1.81 °F2026-08-032026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (28 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.81
2026-08-29-3.31
2026-08-28-2.64
2026-08-27-3.92
2026-08-26-5.44
2026-08-25+2.05
2026-08-24-5.56
2026-08-23-2.93
2026-08-22-3.17
2026-08-21-3.77
2026-08-20+3.94
2026-08-19-3.30
2026-08-18-6.23
2026-08-17-4.22
2026-08-16-4.07
2026-08-15-1.31
2026-08-14+1.60
2026-08-13+5.46
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11-2.76
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09-1.10
2026-08-08+0.60
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03-6.00

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KMSP, lead day 2-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -5 °F: 2 days-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.31 · P90 |e| 5.55 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.002
-6.00-5.002
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.000
+0.00+1.001
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.42 -2.18

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-03 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.76 [-1.46, 0.25] no
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -5.98 [-5.98, -5.98] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -4.07 [-4.07, -4.07] yes
NCEP GFS 22 -0.15 [-2.50, 1.06] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -3.05 [-4.31, -1.56] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -2.30 [-2.30, -2.30] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.65 [-0.99, 2.14] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KMSP ifs_hres lead 2, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KMSP (Minneapolis-St Paul), model ifs_hres, lead day 2. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KMSP/model/ifs_hres/lead/2/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence