Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · NCEP GFS · lead day 3

KEWR · gfs · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.32 [1.79, 2.91]2.28-0.79 [-1.60, -0.08]3.11 [2.53, 3.65]41% [26%, 56%]59%63%+0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.32 [1.78, 3.01]2.28-0.79 [-1.73, 0.02]3.11 [2.53, 3.74]41% [25%, 57%]59%63%+0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.32 [1.70, 3.03]2.28-0.79 [-1.72, 0.14]3.11 [2.44, 3.71]41% [25%, 58%]59%63%+0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.32 [1.70, 3.05]2.28-0.79 [-1.87, 0.11]3.11 [2.45, 3.75]41% [22%, 58%]59%63%+0.32+0.312026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.74 [2.16, 3.35]2.71+0.29 [-0.61, 1.13]3.53 [2.89, 4.15]22% [8%, 34%]48%67%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.74 [2.14, 3.49]2.71+0.29 [-0.80, 1.31]3.53 [2.90, 4.25]22% [7%, 34%]48%67%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.74 [2.05, 3.53]2.71+0.29 [-0.83, 1.47]3.53 [2.79, 4.25]22% [6%, 36%]48%67%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC2.74 [2.04, 3.53]2.71+0.29 [-0.99, 1.47]3.53 [2.79, 4.27]22% [7%, 36%]48%67%+0.20+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.87 [2.04, 3.84]2.85-1.67 [-2.76, -0.75]4.02 [2.91, 5.05]26% [11%, 37%]59%67%+0.16+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.87 [1.93, 3.97]2.85-1.67 [-2.77, -0.65]4.02 [2.79, 5.13]26% [9%, 36%]59%67%+0.16+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.87 [1.92, 3.89]2.85-1.67 [-2.79, -0.55]4.02 [2.78, 5.12]26% [11%, 37%]59%67%+0.16+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.87 [1.89, 4.01]2.85-1.67 [-2.82, -0.44]4.02 [2.70, 5.04]26% [7%, 36%]59%67%+0.16+0.142026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.22 [2.36, 4.14]3.40-0.67 [-1.95, 0.44]4.32 [3.26, 5.31]30% [15%, 44%]41%52%+0.06-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.22 [2.31, 4.21]3.40-0.67 [-1.96, 0.63]4.32 [3.14, 5.44]30% [12%, 45%]41%52%+0.06-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.22 [2.25, 4.15]3.40-0.67 [-2.00, 0.66]4.32 [3.11, 5.44]30% [11%, 44%]41%52%+0.06-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC3.22 [2.20, 4.23]3.40-0.67 [-2.03, 0.78]4.32 [3.02, 5.38]30% [12%, 45%]41%52%+0.06-0.032026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC4.00 [3.08, 4.92]2.40+3.89 [3.02, 4.78]5.02 [3.84, 6.07]7% [0%, 21%]26%48%+0.03+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC4.00 [3.18, 5.00]2.40+3.89 [3.10, 4.94]5.02 [3.88, 6.26]7% [0%, 21%]26%48%+0.03+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC4.00 [3.02, 5.10]2.40+3.89 [2.94, 4.94]5.02 [3.70, 6.25]7% [0%, 22%]26%48%+0.03+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC4.00 [3.02, 5.20]2.40+3.89 [2.95, 5.00]5.02 [3.67, 6.31]7% [0%, 21%]26%48%+0.03+0.412026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC3.32 [2.45, 4.30]2.54+3.05 [2.14, 3.97]4.48 [3.22, 5.60]26% [8%, 41%]44%56%+0.19+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC3.32 [2.47, 4.38]2.54+3.05 [2.24, 4.11]4.48 [3.31, 5.74]26% [0%, 43%]44%56%+0.19+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC3.32 [2.36, 4.45]2.54+3.05 [2.08, 4.13]4.48 [3.13, 5.76]26% [0%, 43%]44%56%+0.19+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC3.32 [2.34, 4.51]2.54+3.05 [2.04, 4.23]4.48 [3.05, 5.83]26% [0%, 43%]44%56%+0.19+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC4.01 [3.25, 4.66]2.55+3.62 [2.79, 4.48]4.79 [3.92, 5.54]11% [4%, 20%]26%41%+0.03+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC4.01 [3.20, 4.71]2.55+3.62 [2.77, 4.55]4.79 [3.85, 5.61]11% [0%, 20%]26%41%+0.03+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC4.01 [3.27, 4.72]2.55+3.62 [2.75, 4.54]4.79 [3.91, 5.64]11% [0%, 21%]26%41%+0.03+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC4.01 [3.20, 4.75]2.55+3.62 [2.70, 4.55]4.79 [3.84, 5.60]11% [0%, 20%]26%41%+0.03+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.38 [2.68, 4.07]2.68+2.66 [1.76, 3.57]4.23 [3.32, 5.06]33% [23%, 43%]37%48%+0.18+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.38 [2.62, 4.10]2.68+2.66 [1.74, 3.64]4.23 [3.32, 5.15]33% [22%, 42%]37%48%+0.18+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.38 [2.65, 4.09]2.68+2.66 [1.74, 3.65]4.23 [3.33, 5.16]33% [22%, 43%]37%48%+0.18+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC3.38 [2.60, 4.17]2.68+2.66 [1.70, 3.66]4.23 [3.30, 5.19]33% [21%, 43%]37%48%+0.18+0.342026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KEWR, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -0.37 °F2026-08-05: -6.49 °F2026-08-06: -0.35 °F2026-08-07: -1.86 °F2026-08-08: -0.47 °F2026-08-09: +0.96 °F2026-08-10: +1.27 °F2026-08-11: +4.66 °F2026-08-12: -3.7 °F2026-08-13: +0.98 °F2026-08-14: -3.69 °F2026-08-15: -3.31 °F2026-08-16: -6.58 °F2026-08-17: -1.04 °F2026-08-18: +0.74 °F2026-08-19: +0.39 °F2026-08-20: +5.29 °F2026-08-21: -0.21 °F2026-08-22: -3.26 °F2026-08-23: -0.05 °F2026-08-24: -0.86 °F2026-08-25: -1.42 °F2026-08-26: -1.72 °F2026-08-27: +2.09 °F2026-08-28: -6.36 °F2026-08-29: -0.24 °F2026-08-30: +4.2 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.20
2026-08-29-0.24
2026-08-28-6.36
2026-08-27+2.09
2026-08-26-1.72
2026-08-25-1.42
2026-08-24-0.86
2026-08-23-0.05
2026-08-22-3.26
2026-08-21-0.21
2026-08-20+5.29
2026-08-19+0.39
2026-08-18+0.74
2026-08-17-1.04
2026-08-16-6.58
2026-08-15-3.31
2026-08-14-3.69
2026-08-13+0.98
2026-08-12-3.70
2026-08-11+4.66
2026-08-10+1.27
2026-08-09+0.96
2026-08-08-0.47
2026-08-07-1.86
2026-08-06-0.35
2026-08-05-6.49
2026-08-04-0.37

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KEWR, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 1 °F: 4 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.42 · P90 |e| 5.72 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.007
+0.00+1.004
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08272.32 -0.79

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 -0.65 [-1.83, 0.40] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -2.24 [-4.11, -0.82] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -1.21 [-2.36, -0.01] yes
Persistence (baseline) 27 -1.09 [-2.32, 0.10] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR gfs lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/gfs/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model gfs, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/gfs/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence