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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.59 [2.61, 4.30]2.53-3.27 [-4.14, -2.05]4.57 [3.42, 5.33]14% [0%, 29%]45%55%-0.13+0.082026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.59 [2.45, 4.26]2.53-3.27 [-4.19, -1.85]4.57 [3.27, 5.34]14% [0%, 28%]45%55%-0.13+0.082026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.59 [2.24, 4.34]2.53-3.27 [-4.22, -1.84]4.57 [2.98, 5.39]14% [0%, 30%]45%55%-0.13+0.082026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.59 [2.07, 4.33]2.53-3.27 [-4.26, -1.67]4.57 [2.54, 5.40]14% [0%, 29%]45%55%-0.13+0.082026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 1 QC3.64 [2.58, 4.30]2.81-3.16 [-4.09, -1.74]4.71 [3.53, 5.42]23% [7%, 47%]41%59%-0.14-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 1 QC3.64 [2.38, 4.28]2.81-3.16 [-4.13, -1.34]4.71 [3.29, 5.48]23% [4%, 57%]41%59%-0.14-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 1 QC3.64 [2.34, 4.34]2.81-3.16 [-4.21, -1.37]4.71 [3.07, 5.49]23% [0%, 62%]41%59%-0.14-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 1 QC3.64 [2.12, 4.31]2.81-3.16 [-4.15, -0.95]4.71 [2.71, 5.49]23% [0%, 55%]41%59%-0.14-0.022026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.90 [2.94, 4.65]2.14-3.66 [-4.55, -2.43]4.51 [3.49, 5.09]14% [0%, 25%]23%41%-0.23+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.90 [2.76, 4.70]2.14-3.66 [-4.65, -2.26]4.51 [3.18, 5.10]14% [0%, 25%]23%41%-0.23+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.90 [2.78, 4.75]2.14-3.66 [-4.72, -2.18]4.51 [3.17, 5.16]14% [0%, 26%]23%41%-0.23+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.90 [2.70, 4.75]2.14-3.66 [-4.72, -1.89]4.51 [3.13, 5.13]14% [0%, 27%]23%41%-0.23+0.232026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 1 QC3.95 [2.97, 4.74]2.27-3.65 [-4.61, -2.31]4.59 [3.50, 5.23]5% [0%, 12%]18%50%-0.24+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 1 QC3.95 [2.76, 4.81]2.27-3.65 [-4.69, -2.08]4.59 [3.18, 5.26]5% [0%, 12%]18%50%-0.24+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 1 QC3.95 [2.76, 4.84]2.27-3.65 [-4.82, -2.12]4.59 [3.09, 5.30]5% [0%, 12%]18%50%-0.24+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 1 QC3.95 [2.64, 4.85]2.27-3.65 [-4.80, -1.69]4.59 [2.76, 5.30]5% [0%, 12%]18%50%-0.24+0.182026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 1 QC3.28 [2.48, 4.55]2.25+2.74 [1.59, 4.33]3.90 [2.92, 5.13]14% [0%, 24%]41%50%+0.13+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 1 QC3.28 [2.41, 4.82]2.25+2.74 [1.56, 4.69]3.90 [2.81, 5.51]14% [0%, 24%]41%50%+0.13+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 1 QC3.28 [2.29, 4.86]2.25+2.74 [1.47, 4.75]3.90 [2.66, 5.55]14% [0%, 25%]41%50%+0.13+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 1 QC3.28 [2.38, 4.86]2.25+2.74 [1.55, 4.86]3.90 [2.82, 5.47]14% [0%, 25%]41%50%+0.13+0.382026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 1 QC2.90 [2.16, 4.05]2.31+2.07 [0.91, 3.69]3.48 [2.58, 4.70]18% [5%, 31%]36%59%+0.23+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 1 QC2.90 [2.07, 4.38]2.31+2.07 [0.90, 4.11]3.48 [2.46, 5.11]18% [0%, 32%]36%59%+0.23+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 1 QC2.90 [1.93, 4.35]2.31+2.07 [0.80, 4.17]3.48 [2.31, 5.13]18% [0%, 33%]36%59%+0.23+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 1 QC2.90 [2.07, 4.30]2.31+2.07 [0.86, 4.30]3.48 [2.47, 5.02]18% [0%, 32%]36%59%+0.23+0.372026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 1 QC2.50 [1.88, 3.20]1.97+1.80 [0.92, 2.85]3.18 [2.30, 3.92]18% [4%, 32%]50%73%+0.34+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 1 QC2.50 [1.83, 3.46]1.97+1.80 [0.94, 3.32]3.18 [2.24, 4.06]18% [0%, 32%]50%73%+0.34+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 1 QC2.50 [1.85, 3.47]1.97+1.80 [0.83, 3.32]3.18 [2.30, 4.07]18% [0%, 33%]50%73%+0.34+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 1 QC2.50 [1.86, 3.59]1.97+1.80 [0.95, 3.50]3.18 [2.31, 4.20]18% [0%, 32%]50%73%+0.34+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 1 QC2.03 [1.53, 2.48]1.93+0.89 [0.01, 1.89]2.81 [2.10, 3.36]41% [24%, 57%]64%77%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 1 QC2.03 [1.45, 2.60]1.93+0.89 [-0.01, 2.27]2.81 [2.03, 3.47]41% [22%, 59%]64%77%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 1 QC2.03 [1.48, 2.61]1.93+0.89 [-0.09, 2.30]2.81 [2.04, 3.45]41% [17%, 60%]64%77%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 1 QC2.03 [1.49, 2.71]1.93+0.89 [0.01, 2.50]2.81 [2.04, 3.48]41% [18%, 58%]64%77%+0.46+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-04: -1.84 °F2026-08-10: -1.88 °F2026-08-11: -9.36 °F2026-08-12: -0.86 °F2026-08-13: +1.83 °F2026-08-14: -1.99 °F2026-08-15: -2.47 °F2026-08-16: -7.12 °F2026-08-17: -0.4 °F2026-08-18: +0.1 °F2026-08-19: -1.09 °F2026-08-20: -10.63 °F2026-08-21: -1.86 °F2026-08-22: -7.6 °F2026-08-23: -2.49 °F2026-08-24: -3.4 °F2026-08-25: -3.77 °F2026-08-26: -4.88 °F2026-08-27: -5.36 °F2026-08-28: -5.21 °F2026-08-29: -3.27 °F2026-08-30: +1.56 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.56
2026-08-29-3.27
2026-08-28-5.21
2026-08-27-5.36
2026-08-26-4.88
2026-08-25-3.77
2026-08-24-3.40
2026-08-23-2.49
2026-08-22-7.60
2026-08-21-1.86
2026-08-20-10.63
2026-08-19-1.09
2026-08-18+0.10
2026-08-17-0.40
2026-08-16-7.12
2026-08-15-2.47
2026-08-14-1.99
2026-08-13+1.83
2026-08-12-0.86
2026-08-11-9.36
2026-08-10-1.88
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04-1.84

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 3-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 7 days0 to 2 °F: 3 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.48 · P90 |e| 7.56 °F-200+20 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.007
+0.00+2.003
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.59 -3.27

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 +1.09 [0.34, 1.93] yes
NCEP GFS 22 +1.21 [0.01, 2.36] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -0.17 [-1.30, 0.74] no
Persistence (baseline) 22 +0.41 [-0.99, 1.45] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence