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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KEWR · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.97 [2.36, 3.79]1.72-2.59 [-3.57, -1.77]3.44 [2.64, 4.41]7% [0%, 17%]30%63%+0.13+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.97 [2.28, 3.96]1.72-2.59 [-3.71, -1.65]3.44 [2.55, 4.61]7% [0%, 18%]30%63%+0.13+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.97 [2.25, 3.87]1.72-2.59 [-3.67, -1.58]3.44 [2.50, 4.49]7% [0%, 20%]30%63%+0.13+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.97 [2.27, 3.95]1.72-2.59 [-3.77, -1.59]3.44 [2.52, 4.60]7% [0%, 20%]30%63%+0.13+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.97 [2.36, 3.77]1.76-2.59 [-3.55, -1.78]3.47 [2.67, 4.43]15% [4%, 26%]33%67%+0.13+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.97 [2.27, 3.93]1.76-2.59 [-3.72, -1.63]3.47 [2.57, 4.60]15% [4%, 27%]33%67%+0.13+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.97 [2.24, 3.86]1.76-2.59 [-3.67, -1.54]3.47 [2.53, 4.58]15% [0%, 29%]33%67%+0.13+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 1 QC2.97 [2.27, 3.92]1.76-2.59 [-3.79, -1.60]3.47 [2.54, 4.60]15% [0%, 29%]33%67%+0.13+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC3.07 [2.28, 3.88]1.74-2.86 [-3.80, -1.93]3.58 [2.67, 4.27]15% [3%, 30%]37%56%+0.10+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC3.07 [2.14, 3.97]1.74-2.86 [-3.91, -1.83]3.58 [2.60, 4.39]15% [0%, 35%]37%56%+0.10+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC3.07 [1.97, 4.02]1.74-2.86 [-3.99, -1.62]3.58 [2.42, 4.40]15% [0%, 39%]37%56%+0.10+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 1 QC3.07 [2.07, 4.07]1.74-2.86 [-4.07, -1.70]3.58 [2.47, 4.44]15% [0%, 36%]37%56%+0.10+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC3.10 [2.28, 3.94]1.79-2.85 [-3.85, -1.92]3.62 [2.67, 4.38]15% [3%, 30%]37%52%+0.09+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC3.10 [2.13, 4.02]1.79-2.85 [-3.93, -1.80]3.62 [2.59, 4.43]15% [0%, 35%]37%52%+0.09+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 1 QC3.10 [2.01, 4.13]1.79-2.85 [-4.04, -1.62]3.62 [2.42, 4.51]15% [0%, 39%]37%52%+0.09+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 1 QC3.10 [2.09, 4.14]1.79-2.85 [-4.08, -1.66]3.62 [2.44, 4.52]15% [0%, 36%]37%52%+0.09+0.462026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.64 [1.96, 3.16]2.05+1.89 [1.02, 2.75]3.22 [2.40, 3.87]22% [13%, 33%]30%63%+0.36+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.64 [1.88, 3.22]2.05+1.89 [1.02, 2.85]3.22 [2.26, 3.95]22% [13%, 33%]30%63%+0.36+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.64 [1.77, 3.26]2.05+1.89 [0.96, 2.88]3.22 [1.95, 4.04]22% [12%, 33%]30%63%+0.36+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.64 [1.85, 3.24]2.05+1.89 [1.04, 2.83]3.22 [2.21, 3.93]22% [12%, 33%]30%63%+0.36+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC2.32 [1.82, 2.72]2.05+0.99 [0.09, 1.85]2.79 [2.18, 3.30]15% [3%, 30%]52%81%+0.43+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC2.32 [1.72, 2.83]2.05+0.99 [0.09, 1.95]2.79 [1.99, 3.41]15% [0%, 31%]52%81%+0.43+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 1 QC2.32 [1.53, 2.89]2.05+0.99 [0.01, 1.98]2.79 [1.65, 3.46]15% [0%, 32%]52%81%+0.43+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 1 QC2.32 [1.70, 2.88]2.05+0.99 [0.07, 1.92]2.79 [1.94, 3.43]15% [0%, 31%]52%81%+0.43+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC2.33 [1.68, 2.89]1.75+1.88 [1.21, 2.66]3.03 [2.24, 3.79]30% [14%, 54%]48%78%+0.43+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC2.33 [1.58, 2.93]1.75+1.88 [1.20, 2.71]3.03 [2.19, 3.82]30% [14%, 56%]48%78%+0.43+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 1 QC2.33 [1.54, 2.96]1.75+1.88 [1.20, 2.78]3.03 [2.19, 3.89]30% [14%, 63%]48%78%+0.43+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 1 QC2.33 [1.58, 2.91]1.75+1.88 [1.21, 2.66]3.03 [2.23, 3.88]30% [14%, 60%]48%78%+0.43+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC1.97 [1.58, 2.31]1.79+0.99 [0.28, 1.77]2.59 [1.91, 3.26]22% [8%, 36%]67%81%+0.52+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC1.97 [1.52, 2.33]1.79+0.99 [0.28, 1.83]2.59 [1.87, 3.30]22% [7%, 37%]67%81%+0.52+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 1 QC1.97 [1.52, 2.37]1.79+0.99 [0.26, 1.89]2.59 [1.88, 3.35]22% [6%, 38%]67%81%+0.52+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 1 QC1.97 [1.54, 2.39]1.79+0.99 [0.26, 1.78]2.59 [1.92, 3.36]22% [0%, 36%]67%81%+0.52+0.562026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -0.84 °F2026-08-05: -7.05 °F2026-08-06: -5.36 °F2026-08-07: -7.27 °F2026-08-08: -2.4 °F2026-08-09: -2.94 °F2026-08-10: -1.23 °F2026-08-11: +1.12 °F2026-08-12: -2.82 °F2026-08-13: -1.96 °F2026-08-14: -2.7 °F2026-08-15: -3.12 °F2026-08-16: -2.19 °F2026-08-17: +2.22 °F2026-08-18: -2.28 °F2026-08-19: -4.93 °F2026-08-20: -0.31 °F2026-08-21: -1.26 °F2026-08-22: -1.18 °F2026-08-23: -3.33 °F2026-08-24: -3.91 °F2026-08-25: -4.33 °F2026-08-26: -4.34 °F2026-08-27: -2.47 °F2026-08-28: -4.73 °F2026-08-29: -2.03 °F2026-08-30: +1.76 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.76
2026-08-29-2.03
2026-08-28-4.73
2026-08-27-2.47
2026-08-26-4.34
2026-08-25-4.33
2026-08-24-3.91
2026-08-23-3.33
2026-08-22-1.18
2026-08-21-1.26
2026-08-20-0.31
2026-08-19-4.93
2026-08-18-2.28
2026-08-17+2.22
2026-08-16-2.19
2026-08-15-3.12
2026-08-14-2.70
2026-08-13-1.96
2026-08-12-2.82
2026-08-11+1.12
2026-08-10-1.23
2026-08-09-2.94
2026-08-08-2.40
2026-08-07-7.27
2026-08-06-5.36
2026-08-05-7.05
2026-08-04-0.84

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 8 days-2 to -1 °F: 4 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.47 · P90 |e| 5.1 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.008
-2.00-1.004
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.002
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08272.97 -2.59

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +0.65 [-0.40, 1.83] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -1.52 [-2.23, -1.02] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 -1.09 [-1.93, -0.34] yes
Persistence (baseline) 27 -0.44 [-1.46, 0.63] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence