Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · NCEP GFS · lead day 5

KOKC · gfs · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC3.91 [2.60, 5.43]3.31+1.97 [0.83, 3.11]4.82 [3.24, 6.22]12% [0%, 23%]40%40%-0.22-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC3.91 [2.46, 5.55]3.31+1.97 [0.80, 3.15]4.82 [3.06, 6.27]12% [0%, 24%]40%40%-0.22-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC3.91 [2.37, 5.72]3.31+1.97 [0.72, 3.16]4.82 [2.91, 6.45]12% [0%, 24%]40%40%-0.22-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 2 QC3.91 [2.45, 5.71]3.31+1.97 [0.76, 3.26]4.82 [3.04, 6.50]12% [0%, 25%]40%40%-0.22-0.022026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 2 QC3.94 [2.66, 5.41]3.22+2.22 [1.17, 3.33]4.82 [3.12, 6.25]8% [0%, 15%]36%44%-0.23+0.002026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 2 QC3.94 [2.50, 5.52]3.22+2.22 [1.12, 3.40]4.82 [2.95, 6.33]8% [0%, 16%]36%44%-0.23+0.002026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 2 QC3.94 [2.42, 5.65]3.22+2.22 [1.09, 3.41]4.82 [2.79, 6.51]8% [0%, 17%]36%44%-0.23+0.002026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 2 QC3.94 [2.49, 5.74]3.22+2.22 [1.11, 3.56]4.82 [2.94, 6.51]8% [0%, 15%]36%44%-0.23+0.002026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d25 2 QC2.84 [1.58, 4.25]2.68+1.51 [-0.18, 2.76]3.91 [2.31, 5.29]40% [15%, 68%]48%60%+0.11+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d25 2 QC2.84 [1.41, 4.44]2.68+1.51 [-0.59, 2.86]3.91 [2.06, 5.43]40% [11%, 69%]48%60%+0.11+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d25 2 QC2.84 [1.29, 4.62]2.68+1.51 [-0.58, 2.91]3.91 [1.86, 5.64]40% [7%, 73%]48%60%+0.11+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall25 2 QC2.84 [1.29, 4.57]2.68+1.51 [-0.57, 2.89]3.91 [1.94, 5.57]40% [13%, 72%]48%60%+0.11+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d25 2 QC3.11 [1.90, 4.46]2.75+1.75 [0.09, 2.91]4.15 [2.61, 5.47]36% [11%, 65%]48%56%+0.03+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d25 2 QC3.11 [1.65, 4.67]2.75+1.75 [-0.20, 3.03]4.15 [2.42, 5.63]36% [9%, 69%]48%56%+0.03+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d25 2 QC3.11 [1.52, 4.91]2.75+1.75 [-0.20, 3.03]4.15 [2.16, 5.80]36% [7%, 71%]48%56%+0.03+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall25 2 QC3.11 [1.57, 4.95]2.75+1.75 [-0.23, 3.00]4.15 [2.27, 5.78]36% [10%, 71%]48%56%+0.03+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC5.32 [4.31, 6.45]3.61+4.38 [2.96, 6.07]6.27 [5.15, 7.38]12% [0%, 28%]20%32%-0.58-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC5.32 [4.22, 6.70]3.61+4.38 [2.87, 6.50]6.27 [5.10, 7.54]12% [0%, 34%]20%32%-0.58-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC5.32 [4.18, 6.70]3.61+4.38 [2.69, 6.39]6.27 [5.02, 7.54]12% [0%, 33%]20%32%-0.58-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 2 QC5.32 [4.09, 6.76]3.61+4.38 [2.82, 6.55]6.27 [5.02, 7.66]12% [0%, 33%]20%32%-0.58-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 2 QC5.71 [4.79, 6.81]3.73+4.58 [3.06, 6.35]6.59 [5.64, 7.59]8% [0%, 19%]16%28%-0.70-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 2 QC5.71 [4.62, 7.00]3.73+4.58 [2.92, 6.86]6.59 [5.61, 7.78]8% [0%, 22%]16%28%-0.70-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 2 QC5.71 [4.62, 6.99]3.73+4.58 [2.74, 6.78]6.59 [5.57, 7.80]8% [0%, 22%]16%28%-0.70-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 2 QC5.71 [4.61, 7.06]3.73+4.58 [2.77, 6.77]6.59 [5.51, 7.92]8% [0%, 22%]16%28%-0.70-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d25 2 QC4.56 [3.81, 5.37]3.53+3.79 [2.60, 4.98]5.57 [4.85, 6.26]16% [5%, 25%]24%40%-0.36-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d25 2 QC4.56 [3.76, 5.52]3.53+3.79 [2.47, 5.19]5.57 [4.78, 6.33]16% [0%, 26%]24%40%-0.36-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d25 2 QC4.56 [3.78, 5.51]3.53+3.79 [2.35, 5.24]5.57 [4.76, 6.40]16% [0%, 29%]24%40%-0.36-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall25 2 QC4.56 [3.73, 5.46]3.53+3.79 [2.27, 5.21]5.57 [4.71, 6.33]16% [0%, 29%]24%40%-0.36-0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d25 2 QC4.94 [4.19, 5.68]3.72+4.14 [2.84, 5.37]6.00 [5.27, 6.63]16% [7%, 25%]24%40%-0.47-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d25 2 QC4.94 [4.12, 5.73]3.72+4.14 [2.67, 5.57]6.00 [5.24, 6.64]16% [5%, 26%]24%40%-0.47-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d25 2 QC4.94 [4.02, 5.81]3.72+4.14 [2.46, 5.65]6.00 [5.17, 6.72]16% [0%, 29%]24%40%-0.47-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall25 2 QC4.94 [4.06, 5.72]3.72+4.14 [2.51, 5.61]6.00 [5.14, 6.67]16% [5%, 29%]24%40%-0.47-0.122026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: +3.09 °F2026-08-07: +4.77 °F2026-08-08: -5.72 °F2026-08-09: -0.08 °F2026-08-10: +1.8 °F2026-08-11: +1.45 °F2026-08-12: +1.1 °F2026-08-13: -1.6 °F2026-08-14: +0.93 °F2026-08-15: +4.31 °F2026-08-16: +4.23 °F2026-08-17: +8.33 °F2026-08-18: +0.8 °F2026-08-19: +1.9 °F2026-08-20: -6.55 °F2026-08-21: -4.36 °F2026-08-22: +9.53 °F2026-08-23: +11.13 °F2026-08-24: +3.81 °F2026-08-25: +4.65 °F2026-08-26: +5.62 °F2026-08-27: -5.91 °F2026-08-28: +1.03 °F2026-08-29: +1.45 °F2026-08-30: +3.59 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+3.59
2026-08-29+1.45
2026-08-28+1.03
2026-08-27-5.91
2026-08-26+5.62
2026-08-25+4.65
2026-08-24+3.81
2026-08-23+11.13
2026-08-22+9.53
2026-08-21-4.36
2026-08-20-6.55
2026-08-19+1.90
2026-08-18+0.80
2026-08-17+8.33
2026-08-16+4.23
2026-08-15+4.31
2026-08-14+0.93
2026-08-13-1.60
2026-08-12+1.10
2026-08-11+1.45
2026-08-10+1.80
2026-08-09-0.08
2026-08-08-5.72
2026-08-07+4.77
2026-08-06+3.09

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -4 °F: 3 days-4 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 8 days2 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 6 °F: 5 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 2 days10 to 12 °F: 1 day12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.81 · P90 |e| 7.62 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.001
-6.00-4.003
-4.00-2.000
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.008
+2.00+4.003
+4.00+6.005
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.002
+10.00+12.001
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08253.91 +1.97

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
NCEP GFS2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 25 -0.63 [-3.47, 1.20] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -5.08 [-7.25, -3.21] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.34 [-0.73, 2.79] no
Persistence (baseline) 25 +0.71 [-0.88, 2.05] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC gfs lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model gfs, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence