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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 5

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC4.54 [3.41, 6.09]3.50-3.32 [-5.63, -1.61]5.75 [4.14, 7.23]12% [0%, 25%]20%40%-0.42-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC4.54 [3.31, 6.58]3.50-3.32 [-6.35, -1.66]5.75 [3.81, 7.59]12% [0%, 25%]20%40%-0.42-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC4.54 [3.33, 6.51]3.50-3.32 [-6.24, -1.53]5.75 [3.93, 7.62]12% [0%, 29%]20%40%-0.42-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall25 2 QC4.54 [3.25, 6.51]3.50-3.32 [-6.41, -1.54]5.75 [3.78, 7.43]12% [0%, 27%]20%40%-0.42-0.082026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d25 2 QC4.55 [3.39, 6.12]3.56-3.38 [-5.71, -1.70]5.80 [4.21, 7.30]8% [0%, 15%]20%40%-0.42-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d25 2 QC4.55 [3.30, 6.65]3.56-3.38 [-6.37, -1.70]5.80 [3.89, 7.67]8% [0%, 15%]20%40%-0.42-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d25 2 QC4.55 [3.37, 6.56]3.56-3.38 [-6.27, -1.59]5.80 [3.97, 7.70]8% [0%, 14%]20%40%-0.42-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall25 2 QC4.55 [3.18, 6.60]3.56-3.38 [-6.45, -1.65]5.80 [3.77, 7.50]8% [0%, 15%]20%40%-0.42-0.102026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC4.13 [3.34, 5.73]2.77-3.39 [-5.55, -1.97]4.87 [3.84, 6.64]8% [0%, 15%]21%42%-0.24+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC4.13 [3.33, 6.27]2.77-3.39 [-6.16, -1.93]4.87 [3.80, 7.15]8% [0%, 15%]21%42%-0.24+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC4.13 [3.33, 5.98]2.77-3.39 [-5.98, -1.78]4.87 [3.81, 6.91]8% [0%, 15%]21%42%-0.24+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 2 QC4.13 [3.28, 6.13]2.77-3.39 [-6.13, -1.77]4.87 [3.76, 6.94]8% [0%, 15%]21%42%-0.24+0.182026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 2 QC4.15 [3.33, 5.73]2.79-3.49 [-5.55, -2.14]4.94 [3.97, 6.65]8% [0%, 22%]21%42%-0.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 2 QC4.15 [3.34, 6.28]2.79-3.49 [-6.20, -2.13]4.94 [3.93, 7.16]8% [0%, 22%]21%42%-0.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 2 QC4.15 [3.34, 6.00]2.79-3.49 [-5.97, -2.00]4.94 [3.93, 6.92]8% [0%, 24%]21%42%-0.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 2 QC4.15 [3.29, 6.08]2.79-3.49 [-6.08, -2.02]4.94 [3.88, 6.99]8% [0%, 23%]21%42%-0.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d25 2 QC3.45 [2.64, 4.24]2.28+3.00 [1.66, 4.04]4.14 [3.19, 4.88]16% [0%, 31%]28%52%-0.03+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d25 2 QC3.45 [2.49, 4.38]2.28+3.00 [1.37, 4.26]4.14 [3.06, 4.95]16% [0%, 32%]28%52%-0.03+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d25 2 QC3.45 [2.47, 4.40]2.28+3.00 [1.20, 4.34]4.14 [3.06, 5.00]16% [0%, 31%]28%52%-0.03+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall25 2 QC3.45 [2.51, 4.40]2.28+3.00 [1.29, 4.25]4.14 [3.11, 4.96]16% [0%, 31%]28%52%-0.03+0.312026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d25 2 QC3.58 [2.74, 4.35]2.32+3.07 [1.68, 4.16]4.24 [3.28, 4.98]16% [0%, 31%]28%44%-0.07+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d25 2 QC3.58 [2.59, 4.47]2.32+3.07 [1.37, 4.37]4.24 [3.16, 5.05]16% [0%, 32%]28%44%-0.07+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d25 2 QC3.58 [2.53, 4.51]2.32+3.07 [1.22, 4.48]4.24 [3.12, 5.07]16% [0%, 31%]28%44%-0.07+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall25 2 QC3.58 [2.65, 4.51]2.32+3.07 [1.32, 4.37]4.24 [3.21, 5.05]16% [0%, 31%]28%44%-0.07+0.302026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 2 QC3.47 [2.60, 4.65]2.12+3.03 [1.81, 4.45]4.06 [2.99, 5.16]17% [6%, 29%]29%38%-0.00+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 2 QC3.47 [2.50, 4.88]2.12+3.03 [1.57, 4.84]4.06 [2.91, 5.36]17% [4%, 32%]29%38%-0.00+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 2 QC3.47 [2.50, 4.93]2.12+3.03 [1.54, 4.90]4.06 [2.94, 5.38]17% [0%, 33%]29%38%-0.00+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 2 QC3.47 [2.41, 4.83]2.12+3.03 [1.60, 4.82]4.06 [2.85, 5.30]17% [0%, 33%]29%38%-0.00+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 2 QC3.56 [2.73, 4.72]2.13+3.09 [1.81, 4.50]4.11 [3.10, 5.22]17% [6%, 29%]29%38%-0.03+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 2 QC3.56 [2.63, 4.97]2.13+3.09 [1.56, 4.87]4.11 [2.99, 5.44]17% [4%, 32%]29%38%-0.03+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 2 QC3.56 [2.59, 4.99]2.13+3.09 [1.48, 4.99]4.11 [3.00, 5.47]17% [0%, 33%]29%38%-0.03+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 2 QC3.56 [2.54, 4.90]2.13+3.09 [1.60, 4.82]4.11 [2.94, 5.38]17% [0%, 33%]29%38%-0.03+0.392026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-06: -8.61 °F2026-08-07: -6.72 °F2026-08-08: -13.2 °F2026-08-09: -2.53 °F2026-08-10: -2.65 °F2026-08-11: -1.27 °F2026-08-12: -2.1 °F2026-08-13: -4.05 °F2026-08-14: -5.94 °F2026-08-15: -1.46 °F2026-08-16: -0.75 °F2026-08-17: +3.81 °F2026-08-18: -4.63 °F2026-08-19: -2.6 °F2026-08-20: -15.03 °F2026-08-21: +2.09 °F2026-08-22: +5.56 °F2026-08-23: +3.69 °F2026-08-24: -4.17 °F2026-08-25: -3.9 °F2026-08-26: -0.4 °F2026-08-27: -0.83 °F2026-08-28: -4.75 °F2026-08-29: -7.82 °F2026-08-30: -4.84 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-4.84
2026-08-29-7.82
2026-08-28-4.75
2026-08-27-0.83
2026-08-26-0.40
2026-08-25-3.90
2026-08-24-4.17
2026-08-23+3.69
2026-08-22+5.56
2026-08-21+2.09
2026-08-20-15.03
2026-08-19-2.60
2026-08-18-4.63
2026-08-17+3.81
2026-08-16-0.75
2026-08-15-1.46
2026-08-14-5.94
2026-08-13-4.05
2026-08-12-2.10
2026-08-11-1.27
2026-08-10-2.65
2026-08-09-2.53
2026-08-08-13.20
2026-08-07-6.72
2026-08-06-8.61

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 5-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 1 day-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 2 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.9 · P90 |e| 8.3 °F-200+20 °Fn = 25 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.001
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.002
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.003
+4.00+6.001
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08254.54 -3.32

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 25
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 25 +0.63 [-1.20, 3.47] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -4.45 [-6.13, -2.44] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +1.46 [0.62, 3.87] yes
Persistence (baseline) 25 +1.34 [0.19, 2.79] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence