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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 5

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 5

Target day = initialization date + 5 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC3.04 [2.49, 3.56]2.91-0.66 [-2.02, 0.53]3.51 [2.82, 4.08]17% [0%, 27%]28%50%+0.15+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC3.04 [2.46, 3.58]2.91-0.66 [-2.34, 0.99]3.51 [2.54, 4.11]17% [0%, 27%]28%50%+0.15+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC3.04 [2.46, 3.66]2.91-0.66 [-2.40, 1.44]3.51 [2.48, 4.17]17% [0%, 27%]28%50%+0.15+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 2 QC3.04 [2.45, 3.57]2.91-0.66 [-2.24, 1.02]3.51 [2.46, 4.08]17% [0%, 28%]28%50%+0.15+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 2 QC3.03 [2.40, 3.73]2.98-0.19 [-1.66, 1.21]3.56 [2.73, 4.27]11% [0%, 24%]33%56%+0.15+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 2 QC3.03 [2.35, 3.75]2.98-0.19 [-2.05, 1.72]3.56 [2.67, 4.26]11% [0%, 25%]33%56%+0.15+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 2 QC3.03 [2.37, 3.86]2.98-0.19 [-2.10, 2.16]3.56 [2.65, 4.39]11% [0%, 25%]33%56%+0.15+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 2 QC3.03 [2.28, 3.74]2.98-0.19 [-2.00, 1.55]3.56 [2.59, 4.27]11% [0%, 27%]33%56%+0.15+0.152026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC3.71 [2.90, 4.43]3.07-1.81 [-3.45, 0.08]4.43 [3.28, 5.25]10% [0%, 23%]30%45%-0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC3.71 [2.57, 4.55]3.07-1.81 [-3.61, 0.87]4.43 [2.78, 5.33]10% [0%, 24%]30%45%-0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC3.71 [2.56, 4.58]3.07-1.81 [-3.59, 1.11]4.43 [2.74, 5.42]10% [0%, 25%]30%45%-0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall20 2 QC3.71 [2.55, 4.55]3.07-1.81 [-3.56, 1.01]4.43 [2.74, 5.27]10% [0%, 24%]30%45%-0.09+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d20 2 QC3.64 [2.71, 4.55]3.07-1.58 [-3.16, 0.27]4.49 [3.05, 5.57]15% [0%, 27%]35%55%-0.07+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d20 2 QC3.64 [2.63, 4.69]3.07-1.58 [-3.33, 1.07]4.49 [2.75, 5.59]15% [0%, 27%]35%55%-0.07+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d20 2 QC3.64 [2.66, 4.90]3.07-1.58 [-3.30, 1.21]4.49 [2.75, 5.74]15% [0%, 27%]35%55%-0.07+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall20 2 QC3.64 [2.62, 4.61]3.07-1.58 [-3.28, 1.06]4.49 [2.74, 5.56]15% [0%, 27%]35%55%-0.07+0.092026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 2 QC6.90 [5.96, 8.78]2.92+6.89 [5.94, 8.76]7.73 [6.66, 9.60]6% [0%, 14%]11%17%-1.07+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 2 QC6.90 [5.98, 9.98]2.92+6.89 [5.98, 9.98]7.73 [6.62, 10.50]6% [0%, 14%]11%17%-1.07+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 2 QC6.90 [5.92, 9.54]2.92+6.89 [5.89, 9.54]7.73 [6.64, 10.11]6% [0%, 14%]11%17%-1.07+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 2 QC6.90 [5.92, 9.54]2.92+6.89 [5.89, 9.54]7.73 [6.49, 10.16]6% [0%, 14%]11%17%-1.07+0.132026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 2 QC7.97 [6.93, 9.91]3.12+7.97 [6.93, 9.91]8.81 [7.71, 10.81]6% [0%, 14%]11%11%-1.39+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 2 QC7.97 [6.94, 11.16]3.12+7.97 [6.94, 11.16]8.81 [7.71, 11.68]6% [0%, 14%]11%11%-1.39+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 2 QC7.97 [6.86, 10.81]3.12+7.97 [6.86, 10.81]8.81 [7.55, 11.40]6% [0%, 14%]11%11%-1.39+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 2 QC7.97 [6.82, 10.63]3.12+7.97 [6.82, 10.63]8.81 [7.56, 11.31]6% [0%, 14%]11%11%-1.39+0.062026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d20 2 QC6.66 [6.00, 8.08]2.71+6.66 [6.00, 8.08]7.35 [6.49, 8.73]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-0.96+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d20 2 QC6.66 [5.98, 8.99]2.71+6.66 [5.98, 8.99]7.35 [6.41, 9.33]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-0.96+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d20 2 QC6.66 [5.97, 8.85]2.71+6.66 [5.97, 8.85]7.35 [6.43, 9.08]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-0.96+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall20 2 QC6.66 [6.00, 8.99]2.71+6.66 [6.00, 8.99]7.35 [6.44, 9.19]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-0.96+0.222026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d20 2 QC7.62 [6.80, 9.12]2.87+7.62 [6.80, 9.12]8.33 [7.31, 9.79]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-1.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d20 2 QC7.62 [6.77, 9.93]2.87+7.62 [6.77, 9.93]8.33 [7.26, 10.35]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-1.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d20 2 QC7.62 [6.73, 9.93]2.87+7.62 [6.73, 9.93]8.33 [7.24, 10.22]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-1.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall20 2 QC7.62 [6.75, 9.99]2.87+7.62 [6.75, 9.99]8.33 [7.27, 10.33]0% [0%, 0%]5%10%-1.24+0.172026-08-06 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 5, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-06: +2.46 °F2026-08-12: -1.63 °F2026-08-13: -3.31 °F2026-08-14: -3.22 °F2026-08-16: -1.83 °F2026-08-17: +6.69 °F2026-08-19: +0.72 °F2026-08-20: -5.95 °F2026-08-21: -2.34 °F2026-08-22: +4.26 °F2026-08-23: +4.49 °F2026-08-24: -3.15 °F2026-08-25: +0.05 °F2026-08-26: +2.72 °F2026-08-27: -0.46 °F2026-08-28: -4.25 °F2026-08-29: -4.89 °F2026-08-30: -2.24 °F2026-08-062026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (25 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.24
2026-08-29-4.89
2026-08-28-4.25
2026-08-27-0.46
2026-08-26+2.72
2026-08-25+0.05
2026-08-24-3.15
2026-08-23+4.49
2026-08-22+4.26
2026-08-21-2.34
2026-08-20-5.95
2026-08-19+0.72
2026-08-18—
2026-08-17+6.69
2026-08-16-1.83
2026-08-15—
2026-08-14-3.22
2026-08-13-3.31
2026-08-12-1.63
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06+2.46

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 5-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 2 days-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 1 day7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.93 · P90 |e| 5.21 °F-100+10 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.002
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.002
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.001
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08183.04 -0.66

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-06 → 2026-08-30 20

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -1.46 [-3.87, -0.62] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -1.34 [-2.79, 0.73] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -5.82 [-7.77, -3.86] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -0.52 [-3.02, 0.71] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 5, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 5. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/5/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence