Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 7

KDFW · gfs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.59 [1.87, 3.27]2.28+0.88 [-0.43, 1.72]3.12 [2.25, 3.88]17% [10%, 28%]43%61%+0.18+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.59 [1.79, 3.42]2.28+0.88 [-0.53, 1.74]3.12 [2.11, 3.98]17% [10%, 32%]43%61%+0.18+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.59 [1.76, 3.43]2.28+0.88 [-0.81, 1.73]3.12 [2.08, 4.07]17% [10%, 32%]43%61%+0.18+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.59 [1.85, 3.42]2.28+0.88 [-1.10, 1.82]3.12 [2.15, 4.07]17% [10%, 30%]43%61%+0.18+0.222026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.47 [1.76, 3.13]2.19+1.01 [-0.17, 1.80]3.02 [2.10, 3.83]22% [12%, 33%]43%70%+0.22+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.47 [1.63, 3.22]2.19+1.01 [-0.28, 1.81]3.02 [1.94, 3.90]22% [11%, 35%]43%70%+0.22+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.47 [1.60, 3.29]2.19+1.01 [-0.54, 1.81]3.02 [1.90, 3.98]22% [10%, 36%]43%70%+0.22+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.47 [1.70, 3.28]2.19+1.01 [-0.69, 1.88]3.02 [2.01, 3.98]22% [11%, 33%]43%70%+0.22+0.252026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.17 [2.22, 4.19]3.05+0.44 [-1.25, 1.84]4.27 [2.64, 5.55]17% [4%, 34%]48%61%+0.00-0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.17 [2.14, 4.28]3.05+0.44 [-1.40, 1.87]4.27 [2.53, 5.58]17% [0%, 37%]48%61%+0.00-0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.17 [2.03, 4.34]3.05+0.44 [-1.58, 1.90]4.27 [2.47, 5.77]17% [0%, 38%]48%61%+0.00-0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.17 [2.00, 4.55]3.05+0.44 [-1.52, 1.89]4.27 [2.36, 5.87]17% [0%, 38%]48%61%+0.00-0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC3.35 [2.55, 4.23]3.27+0.29 [-1.32, 1.81]4.49 [3.23, 5.56]13% [0%, 30%]48%57%-0.06-0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC3.35 [2.49, 4.36]3.27+0.29 [-1.48, 1.86]4.49 [3.12, 5.63]13% [0%, 32%]48%57%-0.06-0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC3.35 [2.46, 4.38]3.27+0.29 [-1.60, 1.88]4.49 [3.18, 5.75]13% [0%, 33%]48%57%-0.06-0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC3.35 [2.47, 4.54]3.27+0.29 [-1.47, 1.91]4.49 [3.06, 5.83]13% [0%, 30%]48%57%-0.06-0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC3.88 [3.09, 4.78]2.03+3.35 [2.06, 4.60]4.38 [3.46, 5.29]9% [0%, 21%]22%30%-0.54+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC3.88 [2.93, 4.82]2.03+3.35 [2.01, 4.69]4.38 [3.29, 5.33]9% [0%, 21%]22%30%-0.54+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC3.88 [2.92, 4.91]2.03+3.35 [1.95, 4.88]4.38 [3.24, 5.44]9% [0%, 23%]22%30%-0.54+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC3.88 [2.93, 4.87]2.03+3.35 [1.93, 4.74]4.38 [3.30, 5.39]9% [0%, 22%]22%30%-0.54+0.212026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.43 [3.57, 5.32]2.24+3.90 [2.45, 5.21]4.96 [4.05, 5.86]9% [0%, 22%]17%22%-0.76+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.43 [3.44, 5.36]2.24+3.90 [2.34, 5.34]4.96 [3.90, 5.87]9% [0%, 23%]17%22%-0.76+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.43 [3.42, 5.52]2.24+3.90 [2.21, 5.52]4.96 [3.86, 5.96]9% [0%, 28%]17%22%-0.76+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC4.43 [3.43, 5.43]2.24+3.90 [2.27, 5.43]4.96 [3.89, 5.93]9% [0%, 29%]17%22%-0.76+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.06 [2.95, 5.27]2.71+3.31 [1.99, 4.91]4.93 [3.43, 6.21]13% [0%, 27%]35%39%-0.61-0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.06 [2.76, 5.45]2.71+3.31 [1.82, 5.35]4.93 [3.13, 6.30]13% [0%, 30%]35%39%-0.61-0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.06 [2.81, 5.52]2.71+3.31 [1.85, 5.41]4.93 [3.20, 6.45]13% [0%, 29%]35%39%-0.61-0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.06 [2.79, 5.50]2.71+3.31 [1.89, 5.36]4.93 [3.19, 6.47]13% [0%, 30%]35%39%-0.61-0.062026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC4.59 [3.51, 5.74]2.78+3.82 [2.34, 5.47]5.38 [4.04, 6.53]13% [0%, 27%]13%35%-0.82-0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC4.59 [3.34, 6.01]2.78+3.82 [2.17, 5.93]5.38 [3.76, 6.60]13% [0%, 30%]13%35%-0.82-0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC4.59 [3.36, 6.06]2.78+3.82 [2.16, 6.05]5.38 [3.84, 6.67]13% [0%, 29%]13%35%-0.82-0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC4.59 [3.34, 6.09]2.78+3.82 [2.16, 6.06]5.38 [3.84, 6.70]13% [0%, 30%]13%35%-0.82-0.092026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-08: +0.81 °F2026-08-09: -3.37 °F2026-08-10: +3.29 °F2026-08-11: +2.73 °F2026-08-12: +1.59 °F2026-08-13: +3.27 °F2026-08-14: +3.29 °F2026-08-15: +2.92 °F2026-08-16: +0.78 °F2026-08-17: -1.15 °F2026-08-18: +1.08 °F2026-08-19: +2.61 °F2026-08-20: -1.06 °F2026-08-21: +1.02 °F2026-08-22: -0.56 °F2026-08-23: -6.13 °F2026-08-24: +1.43 °F2026-08-25: +7.29 °F2026-08-26: +2.64 °F2026-08-27: +4.52 °F2026-08-28: +0.69 °F2026-08-29: -4.02 °F2026-08-30: -3.42 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.42
2026-08-29-4.02
2026-08-28+0.69
2026-08-27+4.52
2026-08-26+2.64
2026-08-25+7.29
2026-08-24+1.43
2026-08-23-6.13
2026-08-22-0.56
2026-08-21+1.02
2026-08-20-1.06
2026-08-19+2.61
2026-08-18+1.08
2026-08-17-1.15
2026-08-16+0.78
2026-08-15+2.92
2026-08-14+3.29
2026-08-13+3.27
2026-08-12+1.59
2026-08-11+2.73
2026-08-10+3.29
2026-08-09-3.37
2026-08-08+0.81

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 7-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 2 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 4 days3 to 4 °F: 3 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.64 · P90 |e| 4.42 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.002
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.004
+3.00+4.003
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.59 +0.88

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
NCEP GFS2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -1.95 [-4.83, -0.20] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -5.47 [-7.32, -3.57] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +0.86 [-0.33, 2.23] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 -0.58 [-2.03, 0.60] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence