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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 7

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC1.66 [0.73, 2.22]1.61-0.67 [-1.33, 0.10]2.11 [1.05, 2.58]44% [26%, 75%]50%89%+0.54+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC1.66 [0.28, 2.23]1.61-0.67 [-1.29, 0.18]2.11 [0.28, 2.60]44% [26%, 100%]50%89%+0.54+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC1.66 [0.30, 2.31]1.61-0.67 [-1.34, 0.24]2.11 [0.30, 2.64]44% [26%, 100%]50%89%+0.54+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall18 1 QC1.66 [0.29, 2.31]1.61-0.67 [-1.36, 0.24]2.11 [0.29, 2.63]44% [23%, 100%]50%89%+0.54+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d18 1 QC1.81 [0.94, 2.29]1.59-1.06 [-1.68, -0.31]2.24 [1.24, 2.71]33% [18%, 67%]50%89%+0.50+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d18 1 QC1.81 [0.35, 2.29]1.59-1.06 [-1.65, -0.25]2.24 [0.39, 2.70]33% [16%, 100%]50%89%+0.50+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d18 1 QC1.81 [0.35, 2.36]1.59-1.06 [-1.68, -0.25]2.24 [0.41, 2.72]33% [14%, 100%]50%89%+0.50+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall18 1 QC1.81 [0.38, 2.35]1.59-1.06 [-1.67, -0.25]2.24 [0.42, 2.70]33% [14%, 100%]50%89%+0.50+0.522026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC1.99 [0.61, 2.99]1.75-1.03 [-1.60, -0.39]2.52 [0.94, 3.36]29% [9%, 70%]65%71%+0.45+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC1.99 [0.12, 2.95]1.75-1.03 [-1.52, -0.08]2.52 [0.16, 3.35]29% [9%, 100%]65%71%+0.45+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC1.99 [0.13, 3.02]1.75-1.03 [-1.58, -0.13]2.52 [0.18, 3.40]29% [8%, 100%]65%71%+0.45+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall17 1 QC1.99 [0.14, 3.19]1.75-1.03 [-1.54, -0.13]2.52 [0.18, 3.49]29% [0%, 100%]65%71%+0.45+0.492026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d17 1 QC2.23 [0.86, 3.20]1.82-1.42 [-1.96, -0.70]2.69 [1.20, 3.45]29% [9%, 70%]41%65%+0.39+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d17 1 QC2.23 [0.34, 3.16]1.82-1.42 [-1.93, -0.34]2.69 [0.37, 3.47]29% [9%, 100%]41%65%+0.39+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d17 1 QC2.23 [0.35, 3.27]1.82-1.42 [-1.96, -0.35]2.69 [0.39, 3.55]29% [8%, 100%]41%65%+0.39+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall17 1 QC2.23 [0.37, 3.38]1.82-1.42 [-1.93, -0.37]2.69 [0.40, 3.62]29% [0%, 100%]41%65%+0.39+0.472026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d18 1 QC3.36 [2.19, 4.42]1.55+3.36 [2.19, 4.42]3.88 [2.39, 4.69]6% [0%, 13%]22%50%-0.34+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d18 1 QC3.36 [2.17, 4.59]1.55+3.36 [2.17, 4.59]3.88 [2.40, 4.80]6% [0%, 13%]22%50%-0.34+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d18 1 QC3.36 [2.16, 4.60]1.55+3.36 [2.16, 4.60]3.88 [2.36, 4.83]6% [0%, 14%]22%50%-0.34+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall18 1 QC3.36 [2.11, 4.66]1.55+3.36 [2.11, 4.66]3.88 [2.30, 4.85]6% [0%, 14%]22%50%-0.34+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d18 1 QC3.63 [2.41, 4.73]1.56+3.63 [2.41, 4.73]4.11 [2.58, 4.98]6% [0%, 13%]22%39%-0.45+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d18 1 QC3.63 [2.37, 4.89]1.56+3.63 [2.37, 4.89]4.11 [2.59, 5.07]6% [0%, 13%]22%39%-0.45+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d18 1 QC3.63 [2.37, 4.93]1.56+3.63 [2.37, 4.93]4.11 [2.55, 5.11]6% [0%, 14%]22%39%-0.45+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall18 1 QC3.63 [2.33, 4.94]1.56+3.63 [2.33, 4.94]4.11 [2.49, 5.14]6% [0%, 14%]22%39%-0.45+0.392026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d17 1 QC3.43 [2.45, 4.47]1.63+3.27 [2.32, 4.39]3.91 [2.68, 4.86]12% [0%, 24%]24%47%-0.36+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d17 1 QC3.43 [2.27, 4.66]1.63+3.27 [2.27, 4.66]3.91 [2.55, 5.01]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.36+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d17 1 QC3.43 [2.34, 4.69]1.63+3.27 [2.26, 4.69]3.91 [2.57, 5.04]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.36+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall17 1 QC3.43 [2.27, 4.75]1.63+3.27 [2.27, 4.75]3.91 [2.51, 5.07]12% [0%, 25%]24%47%-0.36+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d17 1 QC3.57 [2.61, 4.63]1.68+3.37 [2.45, 4.61]4.03 [2.86, 5.07]12% [0%, 25%]18%29%-0.41+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d17 1 QC3.57 [2.51, 4.89]1.68+3.37 [2.40, 4.89]4.03 [2.75, 5.28]12% [0%, 25%]18%29%-0.41+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d17 1 QC3.57 [2.56, 4.90]1.68+3.37 [2.36, 4.90]4.03 [2.78, 5.28]12% [0%, 25%]18%29%-0.41+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall17 1 QC3.57 [2.47, 4.94]1.68+3.37 [2.40, 4.94]4.03 [2.70, 5.31]12% [0%, 25%]18%29%-0.41+0.352026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-08: +0.24 °F2026-08-14: -0.31 °F2026-08-15: +0.28 °F2026-08-16: -2.63 °F2026-08-17: -2.44 °F2026-08-18: -0.09 °F2026-08-19: -3.91 °F2026-08-20: -2.4 °F2026-08-21: +2.81 °F2026-08-22: +0.57 °F2026-08-23: -4.17 °F2026-08-24: -2.21 °F2026-08-25: +2.81 °F2026-08-26: +2.17 °F2026-08-27: -0.93 °F2026-08-28: -0.61 °F2026-08-29: -0.12 °F2026-08-30: -1.2 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.20
2026-08-29-0.12
2026-08-28-0.61
2026-08-27-0.93
2026-08-26+2.17
2026-08-25+2.81
2026-08-24-2.21
2026-08-23-4.17
2026-08-22+0.57
2026-08-21+2.81
2026-08-20-2.40
2026-08-19-3.91
2026-08-18-0.09
2026-08-17-2.44
2026-08-16-2.63
2026-08-15+0.28
2026-08-14-0.31
2026-08-13—
2026-08-12—
2026-08-11—
2026-08-10—
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08+0.24

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 7-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3.5 °F: 1 day-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 1 day-2.5 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 1 day-1 to -0.5 °F: 2 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 0.5 °F: 2 days0.5 to 1 °F: 1 day1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 1 day2.5 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.69 · P90 |e| 3.14 °F-50+5 °Fn = 18 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.001
-4.00-3.501
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.501
-2.50-2.003
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.001
-1.00-0.502
-0.50+0.003
+0.00+0.502
+0.50+1.001
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.501
+2.50+3.002
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08181.66 -0.67

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 18
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 17

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 18 -3.09 [-7.42, -1.88] yes
NCEP GFS 18 -0.86 [-2.23, 0.33] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 18 -7.07 [-7.98, -5.82] yes
Persistence (baseline) 18 -1.95 [-3.50, -1.19] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence