Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 7

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC8.07 [6.62, 9.38]2.57-8.07 [-9.38, -6.62]8.64 [7.07, 9.79]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.54+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC8.07 [6.13, 9.43]2.57-8.07 [-9.43, -6.13]8.64 [6.52, 9.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%9%-1.54+0.122026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC8.15 [6.84, 9.37]2.93-7.93 [-9.32, -6.52]8.75 [7.35, 9.81]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-0.87+0.342026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC8.15 [6.88, 9.34]2.93-7.93 [-9.28, -6.62]8.75 [7.44, 9.78]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-0.87+0.342026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC8.41 [6.99, 9.70]2.51-8.41 [-9.70, -6.99]8.93 [7.42, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.65+0.142026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC8.41 [6.48, 9.76]2.51-8.41 [-9.76, -6.48]8.93 [6.94, 10.05]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.65+0.142026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC8.44 [7.14, 9.66]2.88-8.28 [-9.65, -6.90]9.03 [7.71, 10.07]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-0.94+0.352026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC8.44 [7.26, 9.63]2.88-8.28 [-9.57, -7.01]9.03 [7.76, 10.02]0% [0%, 0%]0%7%-0.94+0.352026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC8.64 [6.86, 10.08]2.37-8.64 [-10.08, -6.86]9.12 [7.25, 10.35]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.72+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC8.64 [6.30, 10.23]2.37-8.64 [-10.23, -6.30]9.12 [6.56, 10.50]0% [0%, 0%]0%4%-1.72+0.192026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC8.49 [6.68, 10.10]2.92-8.48 [-10.10, -6.65]9.29 [7.44, 10.76]4% [0%, 13%]4%11%-1.07+0.302026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall28 1 QC8.49 [6.83, 10.00]2.92-8.48 [-10.00, -6.82]9.29 [7.57, 10.70]4% [0%, 14%]4%11%-1.07+0.302026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC8.96 [7.25, 10.36]2.33-8.96 [-10.36, -7.25]9.41 [7.60, 10.60]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.82+0.202026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC8.96 [6.70, 10.52]2.33-8.96 [-10.52, -6.70]9.41 [6.94, 10.76]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.82+0.202026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d28 1 QC8.79 [6.99, 10.39]2.87-8.79 [-10.39, -6.99]9.56 [7.76, 10.95]4% [0%, 13%]4%7%-1.14+0.312026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall28 1 QC8.79 [7.17, 10.30]2.87-8.79 [-10.30, -7.17]9.56 [7.90, 10.94]4% [0%, 14%]4%7%-1.14+0.312026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.15 [1.37, 2.95]1.85-1.45 [-2.71, -0.04]2.71 [1.69, 3.47]35% [12%, 57%]52%70%+0.15+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.15 [1.30, 3.10]1.85-1.45 [-2.94, 0.28]2.71 [1.59, 3.60]35% [11%, 57%]52%70%+0.15+0.272026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.17 [1.38, 2.94]1.91-0.91 [-2.34, 0.69]2.86 [1.70, 3.64]38% [15%, 58%]55%72%+0.43+0.502026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.17 [1.44, 2.92]1.91-0.91 [-2.36, 0.75]2.86 [1.82, 3.64]38% [15%, 59%]55%72%+0.43+0.502026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.13 [1.35, 2.92]1.82-1.43 [-2.70, -0.01]2.68 [1.68, 3.42]35% [12%, 57%]52%70%+0.16+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.13 [1.29, 3.08]1.82-1.43 [-2.94, 0.30]2.68 [1.58, 3.54]35% [11%, 57%]52%70%+0.16+0.292026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.14 [1.35, 2.92]1.88-0.91 [-2.30, 0.69]2.80 [1.68, 3.56]38% [15%, 58%]55%72%+0.44+0.512026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC2.14 [1.41, 2.88]1.88-0.91 [-2.35, 0.71]2.80 [1.81, 3.55]38% [15%, 59%]55%72%+0.44+0.512026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.24 [1.45, 3.11]1.85-1.68 [-3.00, -0.24]2.81 [1.75, 3.65]35% [18%, 50%]52%70%+0.11+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.24 [1.38, 3.37]1.85-1.68 [-3.29, 0.11]2.81 [1.66, 3.83]35% [14%, 50%]52%70%+0.11+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d28 1 QC2.48 [1.59, 3.54]2.24-0.93 [-2.61, 1.10]3.15 [1.93, 4.20]29% [6%, 46%]50%64%+0.31+0.392026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall28 1 QC2.48 [1.62, 3.58]2.24-0.93 [-2.60, 1.27]3.15 [1.98, 4.27]29% [0%, 45%]50%64%+0.31+0.392026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.20 [1.43, 3.03]1.84-1.66 [-2.95, -0.23]2.78 [1.74, 3.58]35% [18%, 50%]52%70%+0.13+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.20 [1.36, 3.31]1.84-1.66 [-3.24, 0.11]2.78 [1.64, 3.76]35% [14%, 50%]52%70%+0.13+0.282026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d28 1 QC2.41 [1.52, 3.38]2.19-0.92 [-2.63, 1.08]3.07 [1.91, 4.04]32% [17%, 48%]50%68%+0.33+0.402026-01-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall28 1 QC2.41 [1.60, 3.37]2.19-0.92 [-2.56, 1.23]3.07 [1.94, 4.11]32% [14%, 47%]50%68%+0.33+0.402026-01-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -5.87 °F2026-08-09: -9.62 °F2026-08-10: -2.88 °F2026-08-11: -4.89 °F2026-08-12: -5.58 °F2026-08-13: -5.37 °F2026-08-14: -6.2 °F2026-08-15: -7.91 °F2026-08-16: -10.24 °F2026-08-17: -11.05 °F2026-08-18: -10.76 °F2026-08-19: -10.41 °F2026-08-20: -9.99 °F2026-08-21: -4.61 °F2026-08-22: -8.13 °F2026-08-23: -12.21 °F2026-08-24: -14.85 °F2026-08-25: -5.44 °F2026-08-26: -2.53 °F2026-08-27: -8.18 °F2026-08-28: -9.17 °F2026-08-29: -11.72 °F2026-08-30: -7.93 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-7.93
2026-08-29-11.72
2026-08-28-9.17
2026-08-27-8.18
2026-08-26-2.53
2026-08-25-5.44
2026-08-24-14.85
2026-08-23-12.21
2026-08-22-8.13
2026-08-21-4.61
2026-08-20-9.99
2026-08-19-10.41
2026-08-18-10.76
2026-08-17-11.05
2026-08-16-10.24
2026-08-15-7.91
2026-08-14-6.20
2026-08-13-5.37
2026-08-12-5.58
2026-08-11-4.89
2026-08-10-2.88
2026-08-09-9.62
2026-08-08-5.87

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 1 day-14 to -12 °F: 2 days-12 to -10 °F: 7 days-10 to -8 °F: 6 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 7 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 8.18 · P90 |e| 11.86 °F-200+20 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.001
-14.00-12.002
-12.00-10.007
-10.00-8.006
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.007
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.000
+2.00+4.001
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08238.07 -8.07
2026-0168.45 -7.43

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 29
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 29
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 28
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-08 → 2026-08-30 28

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +3.52 [-0.15, 5.23] no
NCEP GFS 23 +5.47 [3.57, 7.32] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +7.07 [5.82, 7.98] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +4.89 [3.66, 5.78] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence