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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 7

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 7

Target day = initialization date + 7 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.55 [3.10, 6.47]2.98-4.24 [-6.24, -2.91]5.80 [3.86, 7.97]13% [0%, 26%]30%39%-0.43-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.55 [3.04, 7.06]2.98-4.24 [-6.97, -2.86]5.80 [3.59, 8.56]13% [0%, 28%]30%39%-0.43-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.55 [3.05, 7.01]2.98-4.24 [-6.90, -2.93]5.80 [3.59, 8.52]13% [0%, 26%]30%39%-0.43-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.55 [2.83, 7.06]2.98-4.24 [-6.85, -2.71]5.80 [3.33, 8.38]13% [0%, 29%]30%39%-0.43-0.022026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC5.02 [3.63, 6.94]2.95-4.81 [-6.78, -3.51]6.20 [4.32, 8.35]9% [0%, 15%]26%35%-0.58-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC5.02 [3.56, 7.51]2.95-4.81 [-7.48, -3.43]6.20 [4.08, 8.94]9% [0%, 15%]26%35%-0.58-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC5.02 [3.58, 7.51]2.95-4.81 [-7.41, -3.49]6.20 [4.08, 8.90]9% [0%, 15%]26%35%-0.58-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC5.02 [3.38, 7.55]2.95-4.81 [-7.36, -3.29]6.20 [3.79, 8.75]9% [0%, 15%]26%35%-0.58-0.012026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.02 [2.88, 5.58]2.83-3.39 [-5.07, -2.33]5.06 [3.47, 7.13]13% [0%, 35%]30%43%-0.27+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.02 [2.82, 5.88]2.83-3.39 [-5.68, -2.23]5.06 [3.35, 7.69]13% [0%, 39%]30%43%-0.27+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.02 [2.83, 5.91]2.83-3.39 [-5.68, -2.37]5.06 [3.37, 7.67]13% [0%, 40%]30%43%-0.27+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.02 [2.71, 5.99]2.83-3.39 [-5.75, -2.16]5.06 [3.18, 7.68]13% [0%, 41%]30%43%-0.27+0.032026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d23 1 QC4.39 [3.30, 5.93]2.80-3.95 [-5.62, -2.88]5.41 [3.86, 7.46]9% [0%, 18%]22%35%-0.38+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d23 1 QC4.39 [3.25, 6.34]2.80-3.95 [-6.21, -2.80]5.41 [3.77, 8.05]9% [0%, 19%]22%35%-0.38+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d23 1 QC4.39 [3.27, 6.32]2.80-3.95 [-6.21, -2.92]5.41 [3.79, 8.08]9% [0%, 19%]22%35%-0.38+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall23 1 QC4.39 [3.14, 6.43]2.80-3.95 [-6.30, -2.75]5.41 [3.61, 8.10]9% [0%, 19%]22%35%-0.38+0.042026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.06 [1.58, 2.62]1.64-1.48 [-2.37, -0.79]2.53 [2.00, 3.12]26% [12%, 38%]48%83%+0.18+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.06 [1.60, 2.72]1.64-1.48 [-2.59, -0.74]2.53 [2.00, 3.28]26% [9%, 38%]48%83%+0.18+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.06 [1.56, 2.77]1.64-1.48 [-2.56, -0.75]2.53 [1.97, 3.26]26% [10%, 40%]48%83%+0.18+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.06 [1.53, 2.84]1.64-1.48 [-2.66, -0.67]2.53 [1.94, 3.30]26% [0%, 40%]48%83%+0.18+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.16 [1.62, 2.83]1.62-1.70 [-2.58, -0.98]2.66 [2.06, 3.29]26% [12%, 38%]43%78%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.16 [1.64, 2.93]1.62-1.70 [-2.84, -0.92]2.66 [2.08, 3.47]26% [9%, 38%]43%78%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.16 [1.58, 2.95]1.62-1.70 [-2.89, -0.93]2.66 [2.04, 3.46]26% [10%, 40%]43%78%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.16 [1.56, 3.05]1.62-1.70 [-2.91, -0.88]2.66 [1.99, 3.48]26% [0%, 40%]43%78%+0.14+0.372026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.13 [1.74, 2.65]1.64-1.75 [-2.51, -1.00]2.65 [2.17, 3.19]30% [13%, 46%]52%74%+0.16+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.13 [1.75, 2.81]1.64-1.75 [-2.60, -0.88]2.65 [2.18, 3.29]30% [4%, 46%]52%74%+0.16+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.13 [1.74, 2.78]1.64-1.75 [-2.66, -0.91]2.65 [2.13, 3.28]30% [0%, 46%]52%74%+0.16+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.13 [1.71, 2.83]1.64-1.75 [-2.82, -0.87]2.65 [2.09, 3.32]30% [0%, 50%]52%74%+0.16+0.362026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d23 1 QC2.30 [1.88, 2.88]1.67-1.99 [-2.80, -1.22]2.84 [2.32, 3.41]26% [12%, 36%]48%65%+0.09+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d23 1 QC2.30 [1.89, 3.01]1.67-1.99 [-2.89, -1.10]2.84 [2.31, 3.50]26% [4%, 35%]48%65%+0.09+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d23 1 QC2.30 [1.89, 3.02]1.67-1.99 [-2.96, -1.10]2.84 [2.28, 3.50]26% [0%, 36%]48%65%+0.09+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall23 1 QC2.30 [1.85, 3.16]1.67-1.99 [-3.16, -1.07]2.84 [2.22, 3.58]26% [0%, 37%]48%65%+0.09+0.342026-08-08 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 7, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-08: -13.04 °F2026-08-09: -12.18 °F2026-08-10: -4.34 °F2026-08-11: -0.93 °F2026-08-12: -0.08 °F2026-08-13: -1.48 °F2026-08-14: -1.39 °F2026-08-15: -2.07 °F2026-08-16: -3.65 °F2026-08-17: -5.21 °F2026-08-18: -2.94 °F2026-08-19: -5.7 °F2026-08-20: -4.17 °F2026-08-21: +1.61 °F2026-08-22: -12.15 °F2026-08-23: -7.35 °F2026-08-24: -6.34 °F2026-08-25: +1.89 °F2026-08-26: -0.59 °F2026-08-27: -4.05 °F2026-08-28: -3.74 °F2026-08-29: -6.11 °F2026-08-30: -3.58 °F2026-08-082026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (23 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.58
2026-08-29-6.11
2026-08-28-3.74
2026-08-27-4.05
2026-08-26-0.59
2026-08-25+1.89
2026-08-24-6.34
2026-08-23-7.35
2026-08-22-12.15
2026-08-21+1.61
2026-08-20-4.17
2026-08-19-5.70
2026-08-18-2.94
2026-08-17-5.21
2026-08-16-3.65
2026-08-15-2.07
2026-08-14-1.39
2026-08-13-1.48
2026-08-12-0.08
2026-08-11-0.93
2026-08-10-4.34
2026-08-09-12.18
2026-08-08-13.04

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 7-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 3 days-12 to -10 °F: 0 days-10 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -4 °F: 5 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 2 °F: 2 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.74 · P90 |e| 11.19 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.003
-12.00-10.000
-10.00-8.000
-8.00-6.003
-6.00-4.005
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.005
+0.00+2.002
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.55 -4.24

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-08 → 2026-08-30 23

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 23 +1.95 [0.20, 4.83] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 23 -3.52 [-5.23, 0.15] no
ECMWF IFS HRES 18 +3.09 [1.88, 7.42] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +1.37 [-0.18, 3.88] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 7, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 7. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/7/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence