Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · NCEP GFS · lead day 1

KDFW · gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.73 [1.28, 2.16]1.33+1.34 [0.91, 1.83]2.23 [1.59, 2.83]34% [21%, 48%]72%83%-0.11+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.73 [1.22, 2.23]1.33+1.34 [0.88, 1.97]2.23 [1.47, 2.83]34% [17%, 55%]72%83%-0.11+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.73 [1.12, 2.28]1.33+1.34 [0.88, 1.95]2.23 [1.35, 2.93]34% [17%, 56%]72%83%-0.11+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.73 [1.15, 2.36]1.33+1.34 [0.88, 1.96]2.23 [1.43, 2.95]34% [14%, 56%]72%83%-0.11+0.172026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC1.74 [1.24, 2.18]1.37+1.37 [0.94, 1.86]2.24 [1.63, 2.77]34% [17%, 52%]62%79%-0.12+0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC1.74 [1.17, 2.26]1.37+1.37 [0.87, 1.98]2.24 [1.52, 2.81]34% [17%, 56%]62%79%-0.12+0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC1.74 [1.07, 2.35]1.37+1.37 [0.88, 1.93]2.24 [1.39, 2.86]34% [14%, 57%]62%79%-0.12+0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC1.74 [1.13, 2.38]1.37+1.37 [0.89, 1.97]2.24 [1.45, 2.91]34% [14%, 57%]62%79%-0.12+0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.83 [1.33, 2.32]1.54+0.88 [0.24, 1.51]2.34 [1.63, 3.02]28% [14%, 45%]66%79%-0.18+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.83 [1.30, 2.33]1.54+0.88 [0.15, 1.63]2.34 [1.56, 3.00]28% [12%, 44%]66%79%-0.18+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.83 [1.22, 2.38]1.54+0.88 [0.04, 1.71]2.34 [1.48, 3.08]28% [12%, 47%]66%79%-0.18+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.83 [1.25, 2.45]1.54+0.88 [0.14, 1.66]2.34 [1.51, 3.11]28% [12%, 46%]66%79%-0.18+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC1.70 [1.25, 2.14]1.47+0.84 [0.28, 1.43]2.17 [1.49, 2.81]28% [14%, 45%]66%90%-0.09+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC1.70 [1.21, 2.16]1.47+0.84 [0.18, 1.51]2.17 [1.42, 2.80]28% [14%, 43%]66%90%-0.09+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC1.70 [1.15, 2.17]1.47+0.84 [0.13, 1.53]2.17 [1.32, 2.84]28% [13%, 46%]66%90%-0.09+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC1.70 [1.16, 2.22]1.47+0.84 [0.18, 1.52]2.17 [1.34, 2.87]28% [14%, 46%]66%90%-0.09+0.082026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.73 [2.80, 4.70]1.35+3.73 [2.80, 4.70]4.09 [3.07, 5.02]3% [0%, 10%]21%31%-0.86+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.73 [2.83, 4.91]1.35+3.73 [2.83, 4.91]4.09 [3.14, 5.18]3% [0%, 10%]21%31%-0.86+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.73 [2.78, 5.11]1.35+3.73 [2.78, 5.11]4.09 [3.11, 5.27]3% [0%, 11%]21%31%-0.86+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.73 [2.77, 5.02]1.35+3.73 [2.77, 5.02]4.09 [3.07, 5.22]3% [0%, 10%]21%31%-0.86+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC4.03 [3.31, 4.87]1.54+4.03 [3.31, 4.87]4.42 [3.58, 5.26]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%-1.02+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC4.03 [3.33, 5.08]1.54+4.03 [3.33, 5.08]4.42 [3.62, 5.40]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%-1.02+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC4.03 [3.31, 5.35]1.54+4.03 [3.31, 5.35]4.42 [3.59, 5.68]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%-1.02+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC4.03 [3.32, 5.15]1.54+4.03 [3.32, 5.15]4.42 [3.60, 5.47]0% [0%, 0%]17%38%-1.02+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.40 [2.80, 4.15]1.38+3.40 [2.80, 4.15]3.80 [3.06, 4.53]7% [0%, 14%]24%45%-0.70+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.40 [2.81, 4.30]1.38+3.40 [2.81, 4.30]3.80 [3.10, 4.64]7% [0%, 14%]24%45%-0.70+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.40 [2.80, 4.33]1.38+3.40 [2.80, 4.33]3.80 [3.03, 4.69]7% [0%, 14%]24%45%-0.70+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.40 [2.77, 4.35]1.38+3.40 [2.77, 4.35]3.80 [2.98, 4.74]7% [0%, 14%]24%45%-0.70+0.312026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC3.90 [3.38, 4.42]1.55+3.80 [3.30, 4.37]4.27 [3.64, 4.81]3% [0%, 11%]17%34%-0.95+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC3.90 [3.39, 4.56]1.55+3.80 [3.30, 4.52]4.27 [3.65, 4.93]3% [0%, 11%]17%34%-0.95+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC3.90 [3.35, 4.63]1.55+3.80 [3.30, 4.60]4.27 [3.60, 5.01]3% [0%, 12%]17%34%-0.95+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC3.90 [3.34, 4.57]1.55+3.80 [3.27, 4.51]4.27 [3.59, 4.95]3% [0%, 11%]17%34%-0.95+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: +3.58 °F2026-08-03: +1.02 °F2026-08-04: +3.84 °F2026-08-05: +3.06 °F2026-08-06: +0.69 °F2026-08-07: +1.13 °F2026-08-08: -1.14 °F2026-08-09: +3.3 °F2026-08-10: +2.21 °F2026-08-11: -0.87 °F2026-08-12: +1.01 °F2026-08-13: +2.33 °F2026-08-14: -0.12 °F2026-08-15: +0.63 °F2026-08-16: +1.22 °F2026-08-17: +0.21 °F2026-08-18: +1.94 °F2026-08-19: +0.59 °F2026-08-20: +1.83 °F2026-08-21: +7.03 °F2026-08-22: +0.6 °F2026-08-23: -1.86 °F2026-08-24: -1.64 °F2026-08-25: +2.85 °F2026-08-26: +1.3 °F2026-08-27: +2 °F2026-08-28: +0.86 °F2026-08-29: +0.6 °F2026-08-30: +0.69 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.69
2026-08-29+0.60
2026-08-28+0.86
2026-08-27+2.00
2026-08-26+1.30
2026-08-25+2.85
2026-08-24-1.64
2026-08-23-1.86
2026-08-22+0.60
2026-08-21+7.03
2026-08-20+1.83
2026-08-19+0.59
2026-08-18+1.94
2026-08-17+0.21
2026-08-16+1.22
2026-08-15+0.63
2026-08-14-0.12
2026-08-13+2.33
2026-08-12+1.01
2026-08-11-0.87
2026-08-10+2.21
2026-08-09+3.30
2026-08-08-1.14
2026-08-07+1.13
2026-08-06+0.69
2026-08-05+3.06
2026-08-04+3.84
2026-08-03+1.02
2026-08-02+3.58

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KDFW, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 0 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 8 days1 to 2 °F: 8 days2 to 3 °F: 3 days3 to 4 °F: 4 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.22 · P90 |e| 3.35 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.000
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.008
+1.00+2.008
+2.00+3.003
+3.00+4.004
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08291.73 +1.34

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 29 -1.15 [-2.16, -0.25] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -5.36 [-5.36, -5.36] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -6.00 [-6.99, -5.00] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -3.27 [-3.27, -3.27] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -5.09 [-6.52, -3.65] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -5.14 [-5.14, -5.14] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -3.98 [-5.29, -2.75] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -0.58 [-1.62, 1.02] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.08 [-1.08, -1.08] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -4.58 [-5.90, -3.26] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 +0.18 [-0.63, 1.02] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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