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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · Pangu-Weather (GFS init) · lead day 1

KDFW · pangu_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0.00-1.77 [-1.77, -1.77]1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.12—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0.00-1.77 [-1.77, -1.77]1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.12—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0.00-1.77 [-1.77, -1.77]1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.12—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0.00-1.77 [-1.77, -1.77]1.77 [1.77, 1.77]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.12—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0.00-1.65 [-1.65, -1.65]1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0.00-1.65 [-1.65, -1.65]1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0.00-1.65 [-1.65, -1.65]1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0.00-1.65 [-1.65, -1.65]1.65 [1.65, 1.65]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.17—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.24 [3.45, 5.04]0.80-4.24 [-5.04, -3.45]4.32 [3.45, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.83+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.24 [3.45, 5.04]0.80-4.24 [-5.04, -3.45]4.32 [3.45, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.83+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.24 [3.45, 5.04]0.80-4.24 [-5.04, -3.45]4.32 [3.45, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.83+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.24 [3.45, 5.04]0.80-4.24 [-5.04, -3.45]4.32 [3.45, 5.04]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.83+0.472026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC4.20 [3.41, 4.98]0.79-4.20 [-4.98, -3.41]4.27 [3.41, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.80+0.482026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC4.20 [3.41, 4.98]0.79-4.20 [-4.98, -3.41]4.27 [3.41, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.80+0.482026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC4.20 [3.41, 4.98]0.79-4.20 [-4.98, -3.41]4.27 [3.41, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.80+0.482026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC4.20 [3.41, 4.98]0.79-4.20 [-4.98, -3.41]4.27 [3.41, 4.98]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-1.80+0.482026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0.00+1.08 [1.08, 1.08]1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0.00+1.08 [1.08, 1.08]1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0.00+1.08 [1.08, 1.08]1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0.00+1.08 [1.08, 1.08]1.08 [1.08, 1.08]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.46—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0.00+1.20 [1.20, 1.20]1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.40—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0.00+1.20 [1.20, 1.20]1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.40—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0.00+1.20 [1.20, 1.20]1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.40—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0.00+1.20 [1.20, 1.20]1.20 [1.20, 1.20]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.40—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.93 [1.64, 2.23]0.30+1.93 [1.64, 2.23]1.96 [1.64, 2.23]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.29+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.93 [1.64, 2.23]0.30+1.93 [1.64, 2.23]1.96 [1.64, 2.23]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.29+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.93 [1.64, 2.23]0.30+1.93 [1.64, 2.23]1.96 [1.64, 2.23]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.29+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.93 [1.64, 2.23]0.30+1.93 [1.64, 2.23]1.96 [1.64, 2.23]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.29+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0.17+2.12 [1.94, 2.29]2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.41+0.892026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0.17+2.12 [1.94, 2.29]2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.41+0.892026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0.17+2.12 [1.94, 2.29]2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.41+0.892026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0.17+2.12 [1.94, 2.29]2.12 [1.94, 2.29]0% [0%, 0%]50%100%-0.41+0.892026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KDFW, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+2+10-1-22026-08-30: -1.77 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.77

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KDFW, lead day 1-2 to -1.8 °F: 0 days-1.8 to -1.6 °F: 1 day-1.6 to -1.4 °F: 0 days-1.4 to -1.2 °F: 0 days-1.2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.8 °F: 0 days-0.8 to -0.6 °F: 0 days-0.6 to -0.4 °F: 0 days-0.4 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.2 °F: 0 days0.2 to 0.4 °F: 0 days0.4 to 0.6 °F: 0 days0.6 to 0.8 °F: 0 days0.8 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.2 °F: 0 days1.2 to 1.4 °F: 0 days1.4 to 1.6 °F: 0 days1.6 to 1.8 °F: 0 days1.8 to 2 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.77 · P90 |e| 1.77 °F-20+2 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-2.00-1.800
-1.80-1.601
-1.60-1.400
-1.40-1.200
-1.20-1.000
-1.00-0.800
-0.80-0.600
-0.60-0.400
-0.40-0.200
-0.20+0.000
+0.00+0.200
+0.20+0.400
+0.40+0.600
+0.60+0.800
+0.80+1.000
+1.00+1.200
+1.20+1.400
+1.40+1.600
+1.60+1.800
+1.80+2.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0811.77 -1.77

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 -0.16 [-0.16, -0.16] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.28 [-4.28, -4.28] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -3.92 [-3.92, -3.92] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.19 [-2.19, -2.19] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -2.57 [-2.57, -2.57] yes
NCEP GFS 1 +1.08 [1.08, 1.08] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.06 [-4.06, -4.06] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -3.49 [-3.49, -3.49] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 -0.02 [-0.02, -0.02] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 -2.19 [-2.19, -2.19] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 -0.23 [-0.23, -0.23] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW pangu_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model pangu_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence