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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KDFW · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.88 [2.39, 3.49]1.42-2.60 [-3.13, -2.14]3.20 [2.63, 3.86]3% [0%, 11%]34%59%-0.85+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.88 [2.30, 3.61]1.42-2.60 [-3.20, -2.10]3.20 [2.56, 3.94]3% [0%, 15%]34%59%-0.85+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.88 [2.27, 3.72]1.42-2.60 [-3.30, -2.08]3.20 [2.54, 4.06]3% [0%, 13%]34%59%-0.85+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.88 [2.26, 3.60]1.42-2.60 [-3.25, -2.05]3.20 [2.53, 3.95]3% [0%, 16%]34%59%-0.85+0.112026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC3.37 [2.93, 3.95]1.45-3.16 [-3.71, -2.71]3.69 [3.15, 4.34]0% [0%, 0%]21%48%-1.17+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC3.37 [2.85, 4.03]1.45-3.16 [-3.74, -2.65]3.69 [3.08, 4.42]0% [0%, 0%]21%48%-1.17+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC3.37 [2.85, 4.12]1.45-3.16 [-3.85, -2.63]3.69 [3.07, 4.49]0% [0%, 0%]21%48%-1.17+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC3.37 [2.84, 4.04]1.45-3.16 [-3.78, -2.61]3.69 [3.05, 4.42]0% [0%, 0%]21%48%-1.17+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.21 [2.83, 3.71]1.25-3.09 [-3.49, -2.75]3.53 [3.07, 4.05]3% [0%, 10%]21%52%-1.07+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.21 [2.75, 3.79]1.25-3.09 [-3.51, -2.70]3.53 [3.00, 4.11]3% [0%, 10%]21%52%-1.07+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.21 [2.74, 3.83]1.25-3.09 [-3.57, -2.68]3.53 [2.97, 4.14]3% [0%, 11%]21%52%-1.07+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.21 [2.74, 3.77]1.25-3.09 [-3.51, -2.66]3.53 [2.99, 4.10]3% [0%, 11%]21%52%-1.07+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC3.73 [3.34, 4.21]1.30-3.64 [-4.06, -3.28]4.04 [3.57, 4.55]0% [0%, 0%]14%31%-1.41+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC3.73 [3.28, 4.24]1.30-3.64 [-4.07, -3.24]4.04 [3.51, 4.59]0% [0%, 0%]14%31%-1.41+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC3.73 [3.27, 4.33]1.30-3.64 [-4.14, -3.24]4.04 [3.48, 4.66]0% [0%, 0%]14%31%-1.41+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC3.73 [3.25, 4.23]1.30-3.64 [-4.07, -3.20]4.04 [3.51, 4.57]0% [0%, 0%]14%31%-1.41+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.61 [1.31, 1.92]1.02-1.33 [-1.75, -0.88]1.85 [1.58, 2.10]24% [7%, 43%]69%90%+0.19+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.61 [1.24, 1.93]1.02-1.33 [-1.78, -0.87]1.85 [1.50, 2.10]24% [5%, 47%]69%90%+0.19+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.61 [1.22, 1.97]1.02-1.33 [-1.80, -0.82]1.85 [1.49, 2.11]24% [0%, 50%]69%90%+0.19+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.61 [1.23, 1.93]1.02-1.33 [-1.77, -0.85]1.85 [1.48, 2.09]24% [0%, 50%]69%90%+0.19+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC1.75 [1.40, 2.11]1.07-1.53 [-1.98, -1.07]2.04 [1.71, 2.31]24% [7%, 43%]62%83%+0.12+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC1.75 [1.32, 2.11]1.07-1.53 [-2.02, -1.03]2.04 [1.64, 2.31]24% [5%, 47%]62%83%+0.12+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC1.75 [1.26, 2.17]1.07-1.53 [-2.06, -1.00]2.04 [1.61, 2.33]24% [0%, 50%]62%83%+0.12+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC1.75 [1.30, 2.12]1.07-1.53 [-2.01, -1.02]2.04 [1.60, 2.32]24% [0%, 50%]62%83%+0.12+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.89 [1.54, 2.28]1.08-1.70 [-2.13, -1.21]2.20 [1.81, 2.59]21% [4%, 37%]62%83%+0.06+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.89 [1.46, 2.30]1.08-1.70 [-2.15, -1.17]2.20 [1.72, 2.60]21% [0%, 35%]62%83%+0.06+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.89 [1.43, 2.34]1.08-1.70 [-2.20, -1.14]2.20 [1.72, 2.63]21% [0%, 36%]62%83%+0.06+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.89 [1.45, 2.29]1.08-1.70 [-2.16, -1.16]2.20 [1.69, 2.61]21% [0%, 37%]62%83%+0.06+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.03 [1.63, 2.44]1.10-1.87 [-2.34, -1.34]2.36 [1.93, 2.77]21% [4%, 37%]59%86%-0.01+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.03 [1.55, 2.46]1.10-1.87 [-2.35, -1.31]2.36 [1.83, 2.79]21% [0%, 35%]59%86%-0.01+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.03 [1.52, 2.50]1.10-1.87 [-2.39, -1.27]2.36 [1.77, 2.81]21% [0%, 36%]59%86%-0.01+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.03 [1.54, 2.46]1.10-1.87 [-2.36, -1.30]2.36 [1.81, 2.80]21% [0%, 37%]59%86%-0.01+0.452026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -0.65 °F2026-08-03: -4.17 °F2026-08-04: -1.77 °F2026-08-05: -1.74 °F2026-08-06: -2.63 °F2026-08-07: -3.11 °F2026-08-08: -4.44 °F2026-08-09: -1.96 °F2026-08-10: -1.22 °F2026-08-11: -1.09 °F2026-08-12: -1.32 °F2026-08-13: -2.09 °F2026-08-14: -4 °F2026-08-15: -2.71 °F2026-08-16: -3.22 °F2026-08-17: -4.2 °F2026-08-18: -2.73 °F2026-08-19: -2.19 °F2026-08-20: -2.26 °F2026-08-21: +2.05 °F2026-08-22: -1.62 °F2026-08-23: -4.1 °F2026-08-24: -5.86 °F2026-08-25: +2 °F2026-08-26: -4.18 °F2026-08-27: -6.72 °F2026-08-28: -3.96 °F2026-08-29: -3.5 °F2026-08-30: -1.93 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.93
2026-08-29-3.50
2026-08-28-3.96
2026-08-27-6.72
2026-08-26-4.18
2026-08-25+2.00
2026-08-24-5.86
2026-08-23-4.10
2026-08-22-1.62
2026-08-21+2.05
2026-08-20-2.26
2026-08-19-2.19
2026-08-18-2.73
2026-08-17-4.20
2026-08-16-3.22
2026-08-15-2.71
2026-08-14-4.00
2026-08-13-2.09
2026-08-12-1.32
2026-08-11-1.09
2026-08-10-1.22
2026-08-09-1.96
2026-08-08-4.44
2026-08-07-3.11
2026-08-06-2.63
2026-08-05-1.74
2026-08-04-1.77
2026-08-03-4.17
2026-08-02-0.65

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KDFW, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 4 days-3 to -2 °F: 6 days-2 to -1 °F: 8 days-1 to 0 °F: 1 day0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.63 · P90 |e| 4.25 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.004
-3.00-2.006
-2.00-1.008
-1.00+0.001
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.001
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08292.88 -2.60

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.12 [-4.12, -4.12] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -3.92 [-4.09, -3.76] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.03 [-2.03, -2.03] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -3.02 [-3.62, -2.41] yes
NCEP GFS 29 +1.15 [0.25, 2.16] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.90 [-3.90, -3.90] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -3.04 [-3.92, -2.21] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 +0.57 [0.16, 0.91] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.16 [0.16, 0.16] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -2.51 [-3.00, -2.02] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 +1.32 [0.39, 2.10] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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