Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KDFW · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.28 [1.50, 3.02]1.59-1.40 [-2.19, -0.48]2.73 [1.81, 3.44]26% [12%, 50%]57%70%-0.31+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.28 [1.17, 3.17]1.59-1.40 [-2.36, -0.50]2.73 [1.40, 3.53]26% [8%, 62%]57%70%-0.31+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.28 [1.10, 3.24]1.59-1.40 [-2.46, -0.41]2.73 [1.36, 3.57]26% [5%, 67%]57%70%-0.31+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.28 [1.18, 3.17]1.59-1.40 [-2.26, -0.32]2.73 [1.40, 3.53]26% [8%, 60%]57%70%-0.31+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.56 [1.76, 3.36]1.59-1.72 [-2.55, -0.79]2.96 [1.98, 3.73]17% [4%, 40%]39%61%-0.47+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.56 [1.48, 3.48]1.59-1.72 [-2.69, -0.84]2.96 [1.52, 3.84]17% [0%, 46%]39%61%-0.47+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.56 [1.48, 3.55]1.59-1.72 [-2.73, -0.74]2.96 [1.53, 3.87]17% [0%, 42%]39%61%-0.47+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC2.56 [1.48, 3.50]1.59-1.72 [-2.58, -0.63]2.96 [1.51, 3.84]17% [0%, 43%]39%61%-0.47+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.83 [2.26, 3.40]1.31-2.12 [-2.87, -1.39]3.04 [2.34, 3.62]0% [0%, 0%]25%58%-0.70+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.83 [2.17, 3.54]1.31-2.12 [-3.01, -1.39]3.04 [2.23, 3.75]0% [0%, 0%]25%58%-0.70+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.83 [2.17, 3.58]1.31-2.12 [-3.12, -1.36]3.04 [2.23, 3.79]0% [0%, 0%]25%58%-0.70+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.83 [2.15, 3.54]1.31-2.12 [-2.93, -1.28]3.04 [2.20, 3.75]0% [0%, 0%]25%58%-0.70+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC3.12 [2.56, 3.70]1.37-2.46 [-3.25, -1.77]3.30 [2.66, 3.89]0% [0%, 0%]12%50%-0.87+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC3.12 [2.51, 3.81]1.37-2.46 [-3.35, -1.77]3.30 [2.60, 4.00]0% [0%, 0%]12%50%-0.87+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC3.12 [2.49, 3.90]1.37-2.46 [-3.40, -1.74]3.30 [2.58, 4.06]0% [0%, 0%]12%50%-0.87+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC3.12 [2.50, 3.82]1.37-2.46 [-3.30, -1.64]3.30 [2.59, 3.99]0% [0%, 0%]12%50%-0.87+0.192026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.86 [2.24, 3.50]1.31+2.86 [2.24, 3.50]3.23 [2.54, 3.80]9% [0%, 23%]43%52%-0.34+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.86 [2.28, 3.60]1.31+2.86 [2.28, 3.60]3.23 [2.55, 3.90]9% [0%, 25%]43%52%-0.34+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.86 [2.21, 3.63]1.31+2.86 [2.21, 3.63]3.23 [2.52, 3.93]9% [0%, 27%]43%52%-0.34+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.86 [2.24, 3.69]1.31+2.86 [2.24, 3.69]3.23 [2.52, 3.98]9% [0%, 25%]43%52%-0.34+0.402026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC3.08 [2.47, 3.66]1.33+3.08 [2.47, 3.66]3.43 [2.76, 3.99]4% [0%, 12%]35%52%-0.44+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC3.08 [2.49, 3.66]1.33+3.08 [2.49, 3.66]3.43 [2.73, 4.01]4% [0%, 13%]35%52%-0.44+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC3.08 [2.45, 3.70]1.33+3.08 [2.45, 3.70]3.43 [2.70, 4.04]4% [0%, 14%]35%52%-0.44+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC3.08 [2.46, 3.74]1.33+3.08 [2.46, 3.74]3.43 [2.72, 4.03]4% [0%, 13%]35%52%-0.44+0.392026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.26 [1.70, 2.83]1.23+2.07 [1.67, 2.61]2.60 [1.97, 3.10]17% [4%, 33%]54%71%-0.09+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.26 [1.75, 2.92]1.23+2.07 [1.68, 2.70]2.60 [2.02, 3.18]17% [0%, 38%]54%71%-0.09+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.26 [1.70, 2.91]1.23+2.07 [1.65, 2.78]2.60 [1.95, 3.16]17% [0%, 37%]54%71%-0.09+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.26 [1.68, 3.03]1.23+2.07 [1.67, 2.93]2.60 [1.99, 3.27]17% [0%, 36%]54%71%-0.09+0.432026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.50 [1.97, 3.00]1.25+2.29 [1.88, 2.80]2.80 [2.20, 3.27]8% [0%, 21%]46%62%-0.20+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.50 [1.98, 3.06]1.25+2.29 [1.90, 2.87]2.80 [2.22, 3.30]8% [0%, 23%]46%62%-0.20+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.50 [1.94, 3.09]1.25+2.29 [1.89, 2.95]2.80 [2.16, 3.33]8% [0%, 22%]46%62%-0.20+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.50 [1.94, 3.13]1.25+2.29 [1.91, 3.04]2.80 [2.17, 3.32]8% [0%, 23%]46%62%-0.20+0.422026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -0.62 °F2026-08-09: -0.3 °F2026-08-10: -0.81 °F2026-08-11: -2.19 °F2026-08-12: -1.98 °F2026-08-13: -0.6 °F2026-08-14: -1.96 °F2026-08-15: -3.12 °F2026-08-16: -1.79 °F2026-08-17: -2.83 °F2026-08-18: -1.45 °F2026-08-19: -1.03 °F2026-08-20: -0.86 °F2026-08-21: +4.94 °F2026-08-22: -0.27 °F2026-08-23: -2.99 °F2026-08-24: -3.5 °F2026-08-25: +5.19 °F2026-08-26: -1.78 °F2026-08-27: -5.05 °F2026-08-28: -4.27 °F2026-08-29: -3.22 °F2026-08-30: -1.78 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-1.78
2026-08-29-3.22
2026-08-28-4.27
2026-08-27-5.05
2026-08-26-1.78
2026-08-25+5.19
2026-08-24-3.50
2026-08-23-2.99
2026-08-22-0.27
2026-08-21+4.94
2026-08-20-0.86
2026-08-19-1.03
2026-08-18-1.45
2026-08-17-2.83
2026-08-16-1.79
2026-08-15-3.12
2026-08-14-1.96
2026-08-13-0.60
2026-08-12-1.98
2026-08-11-2.19
2026-08-10-0.81
2026-08-09-0.30
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-0.62

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KDFW, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 7 days-1 to 0 °F: 6 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.96 · P90 |e| 4.8 °F-100+10 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.007
-1.00+0.006
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08232.28 -1.40

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 -0.57 [-0.91, -0.16] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -4.27 [-4.27, -4.27] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -4.13 [-4.36, -3.91] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -2.17 [-2.17, -2.17] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 -3.23 [-3.90, -2.56] yes
NCEP GFS 23 +0.58 [-1.02, 1.62] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -4.05 [-4.05, -4.05] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -3.86 [-5.06, -2.33] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.02 [0.02, 0.02] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 -2.72 [-3.28, -2.17] yes
Persistence (baseline) 23 +0.54 [-0.70, 1.48] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence