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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Dallas-Fort Worth · GraphCast (IFS init) · lead day 1

KDFW · graphcast_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, GRAP_v100, starting 2026-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC5.73 [5.07, 6.53]1.43-5.68 [-6.53, -4.99]6.00 [5.30, 6.68]4% [0%, 11%]4%11%-2.52+0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC5.73 [4.94, 6.51]1.43-5.68 [-6.51, -4.90]6.00 [5.19, 6.64]4% [0%, 11%]4%11%-2.52+0.142026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d33 1 QC6.26 [5.22, 7.51]1.71-6.22 [-7.50, -5.15]6.63 [5.53, 7.85]3% [0%, 10%]3%9%-1.75+0.282026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall33 1 QC6.26 [5.18, 7.41]1.71-6.22 [-7.41, -5.11]6.63 [5.49, 7.81]3% [0%, 10%]3%9%-1.75+0.282026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 1 QC6.05 [5.36, 6.85]1.50-6.02 [-6.85, -5.30]6.33 [5.67, 6.99]4% [0%, 11%]4%11%-2.71+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 1 QC6.05 [5.28, 6.86]1.50-6.02 [-6.86, -5.23]6.33 [5.59, 6.98]4% [0%, 11%]4%11%-2.71+0.102026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d33 1 QC6.61 [5.52, 7.91]1.76-6.59 [-7.91, -5.47]7.00 [5.87, 8.25]3% [0%, 10%]3%9%-1.91+0.252026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall33 1 QC6.61 [5.51, 7.80]1.76-6.59 [-7.80, -5.46]7.00 [5.84, 8.18]3% [0%, 10%]3%9%-1.91+0.252026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC6.27 [5.66, 6.91]1.46-6.27 [-6.91, -5.66]6.57 [5.89, 7.12]4% [0%, 11%]4%7%-2.85+0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC6.27 [5.59, 6.93]1.46-6.27 [-6.93, -5.59]6.57 [5.77, 7.14]4% [0%, 11%]4%7%-2.85+0.122026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d32 1 QC6.70 [5.83, 7.85]1.60-6.70 [-7.85, -5.83]7.06 [6.14, 8.13]3% [0%, 10%]3%6%-1.94+0.332026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall32 1 QC6.70 [5.84, 7.69]1.60-6.70 [-7.69, -5.84]7.06 [6.17, 8.03]3% [0%, 10%]3%6%-1.94+0.332026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 1 QC6.46 [5.87, 7.10]1.51-6.46 [-7.10, -5.87]6.78 [6.11, 7.31]4% [0%, 11%]4%7%-2.96+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 1 QC6.46 [5.80, 7.13]1.51-6.46 [-7.13, -5.80]6.78 [5.99, 7.36]4% [0%, 11%]4%7%-2.96+0.092026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d32 1 QC6.95 [6.01, 8.23]1.69-6.95 [-8.23, -6.01]7.33 [6.36, 8.52]3% [0%, 10%]3%6%-2.05+0.292026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall32 1 QC6.95 [6.04, 8.03]1.69-6.95 [-8.03, -6.04]7.33 [6.40, 8.41]3% [0%, 10%]3%6%-2.05+0.292026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 1 QC0.84 [0.54, 1.15]0.83+0.33 [-0.02, 0.72]1.16 [0.75, 1.50]70% [56%, 83%]93%96%+0.59+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 1 QC0.84 [0.54, 1.20]0.83+0.33 [-0.01, 0.80]1.16 [0.75, 1.57]70% [50%, 83%]93%96%+0.59+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d33 1 QC1.49 [0.66, 2.90]1.60+1.03 [0.15, 2.57]2.44 [0.91, 4.02]61% [35%, 79%]82%85%+0.44+0.402026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall33 1 QC1.49 [0.65, 2.91]1.60+1.03 [0.16, 2.60]2.44 [0.90, 4.04]61% [33%, 79%]82%85%+0.44+0.402026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 1 QC0.83 [0.53, 1.16]0.83+0.33 [0.02, 0.69]1.15 [0.70, 1.53]67% [48%, 83%]89%96%+0.59+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 1 QC0.83 [0.53, 1.21]0.83+0.33 [0.02, 0.77]1.15 [0.71, 1.58]67% [45%, 83%]89%96%+0.59+0.592026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d33 1 QC1.43 [0.66, 2.72]1.52+0.99 [0.16, 2.44]2.29 [0.88, 3.70]58% [32%, 77%]76%85%+0.46+0.432026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall33 1 QC1.43 [0.64, 2.72]1.52+0.99 [0.19, 2.41]2.29 [0.88, 3.73]58% [30%, 78%]76%85%+0.46+0.432026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 1 QC1.03 [0.68, 1.54]1.00-0.31 [-0.76, 0.19]1.35 [0.84, 1.89]59% [38%, 77%]85%96%+0.49+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 1 QC1.03 [0.67, 1.58]1.00-0.31 [-0.80, 0.24]1.35 [0.83, 1.92]59% [33%, 76%]85%96%+0.49+0.502026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d32 1 QC1.53 [0.73, 2.74]1.59+0.32 [-0.60, 1.90]2.21 [0.90, 3.47]50% [20%, 72%]75%88%+0.40+0.372026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall32 1 QC1.53 [0.75, 2.67]1.59+0.32 [-0.62, 1.83]2.21 [0.91, 3.43]50% [20%, 73%]75%88%+0.40+0.372026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 1 QC0.99 [0.63, 1.50]0.99-0.20 [-0.63, 0.24]1.33 [0.80, 1.89]59% [38%, 77%]89%96%+0.51+0.512026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 1 QC0.99 [0.62, 1.56]0.99-0.20 [-0.67, 0.31]1.33 [0.78, 1.93]59% [33%, 76%]89%96%+0.51+0.512026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d32 1 QC1.43 [0.70, 2.53]1.49+0.35 [-0.49, 1.76]2.04 [0.88, 3.14]50% [20%, 72%]78%88%+0.44+0.412026-01-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall32 1 QC1.43 [0.70, 2.48]1.49+0.35 [-0.47, 1.70]2.04 [0.86, 3.09]50% [20%, 73%]78%88%+0.44+0.412026-01-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -2.69 °F2026-08-03: -7.1 °F2026-08-04: -4.84 °F2026-08-05: -4.49 °F2026-08-06: -4.54 °F2026-08-07: -4.57 °F2026-08-08: -4.99 °F2026-08-09: -6.13 °F2026-08-10: -5.54 °F2026-08-11: -7.6 °F2026-08-12: -7.49 °F2026-08-13: -6.56 °F2026-08-14: -7.79 °F2026-08-15: -6.76 °F2026-08-16: -6.91 °F2026-08-17: -8.14 °F2026-08-18: -5.56 °F2026-08-19: -5.25 °F2026-08-20: -6.09 °F2026-08-21: +0.66 °F2026-08-22: -5.41 °F2026-08-23: -7.73 °F2026-08-24: -7.24 °F2026-08-25: -2.13 °F2026-08-26: -6.16 °F2026-08-29: -7.11 °F2026-08-30: -5.26 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-5.26
2026-08-29-7.11
2026-08-28—
2026-08-27—
2026-08-26-6.16
2026-08-25-2.13
2026-08-24-7.24
2026-08-23-7.73
2026-08-22-5.41
2026-08-21+0.66
2026-08-20-6.09
2026-08-19-5.25
2026-08-18-5.56
2026-08-17-8.14
2026-08-16-6.91
2026-08-15-6.76
2026-08-14-7.79
2026-08-13-6.56
2026-08-12-7.49
2026-08-11-7.60
2026-08-10-5.54
2026-08-09-6.13
2026-08-08-4.99
2026-08-07-4.57
2026-08-06-4.54
2026-08-05-4.49
2026-08-04-4.84
2026-08-03-7.10
2026-08-02-2.69

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for GraphCast (IFS init) at KDFW, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 3 days-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 15 days-6 to -4 °F: 11 days-4 to -2 °F: 2 days-2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 2 °F: 1 day2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 6.16 · P90 |e| 8.08 °F-200+20 °Fn = 33 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.003
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.0015
-6.00-4.0011
-4.00-2.002
-2.00+0.000
+0.00+2.001
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08275.73 -5.68
2026-0168.64 -8.64

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 33
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 33
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 32
GraphCast (IFS init)2026-01-02 → 2026-08-30 32

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means GraphCast (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 +3.04 [2.21, 3.92] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.79 [-0.79, -0.79] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.45 [-0.47, -0.43] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +1.30 [1.30, 1.30] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.46 [-0.01, 0.92] no
NCEP GFS 27 +3.98 [2.75, 5.29] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -0.57 [-0.57, -0.57] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 21 +3.86 [2.33, 5.06] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +3.49 [3.49, 3.49] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +0.96 [0.61, 1.31] yes
Persistence (baseline) 27 +4.10 [2.36, 5.55] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KDFW graphcast_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KDFW (Dallas-Fort Worth), model graphcast_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KDFW/model/graphcast_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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