Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · NCEP GFS · lead day 1

KEWR · gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.99 [1.37, 2.68]1.88-0.97 [-2.00, 0.04]2.85 [1.91, 3.67]38% [22%, 55%]72%76%+0.31+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.99 [1.41, 2.75]1.88-0.97 [-2.31, 0.44]2.85 [1.92, 3.75]38% [20%, 55%]72%76%+0.31+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.99 [1.39, 2.75]1.88-0.97 [-2.37, 0.57]2.85 [1.85, 3.79]38% [20%, 57%]72%76%+0.31+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.99 [1.33, 2.84]1.88-0.97 [-2.55, 0.46]2.85 [1.76, 3.85]38% [19%, 57%]72%76%+0.31+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC2.28 [1.64, 2.98]2.29-0.02 [-1.27, 1.25]3.20 [2.36, 3.89]45% [32%, 57%]52%69%+0.20+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC2.28 [1.73, 2.93]2.29-0.02 [-1.51, 1.57]3.20 [2.44, 3.97]45% [30%, 56%]52%69%+0.20+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.28 [1.68, 3.00]2.29-0.02 [-1.56, 1.74]3.20 [2.35, 4.02]45% [29%, 57%]52%69%+0.20+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC2.28 [1.63, 3.02]2.29-0.02 [-1.73, 1.67]3.20 [2.31, 4.05]45% [30%, 57%]52%69%+0.20+0.202026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC1.99 [1.52, 2.56]1.95-1.02 [-2.00, -0.14]2.84 [1.93, 3.63]38% [28%, 48%]69%86%+0.30+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC1.99 [1.50, 2.59]1.95-1.02 [-2.17, 0.20]2.84 [1.77, 3.76]38% [26%, 50%]69%86%+0.30+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC1.99 [1.45, 2.60]1.95-1.02 [-2.27, 0.29]2.84 [1.70, 3.75]38% [25%, 50%]69%86%+0.30+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC1.99 [1.46, 2.68]1.95-1.02 [-2.31, 0.13]2.84 [1.74, 3.83]38% [25%, 50%]69%86%+0.30+0.322026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.38 [2.01, 2.76]2.40-0.07 [-1.32, 1.03]3.19 [2.51, 3.84]28% [15%, 40%]55%69%+0.17+0.162026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.38 [1.95, 2.86]2.40-0.07 [-1.44, 1.26]3.19 [2.41, 3.96]28% [13%, 39%]55%69%+0.17+0.162026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.38 [1.93, 2.85]2.40-0.07 [-1.44, 1.38]3.19 [2.29, 3.97]28% [12%, 41%]55%69%+0.17+0.162026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC2.38 [1.91, 2.89]2.40-0.07 [-1.50, 1.26]3.19 [2.36, 4.04]28% [12%, 41%]55%69%+0.17+0.162026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.85 [3.29, 4.38]2.09+3.51 [2.85, 4.10]4.41 [3.75, 4.95]10% [3%, 19%]24%34%-0.23+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.85 [3.28, 4.38]2.09+3.51 [2.83, 4.18]4.41 [3.73, 4.92]10% [0%, 21%]24%34%-0.23+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.85 [3.27, 4.43]2.09+3.51 [2.80, 4.19]4.41 [3.68, 4.95]10% [0%, 21%]24%34%-0.23+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.85 [3.19, 4.40]2.09+3.51 [2.77, 4.18]4.41 [3.63, 4.94]10% [0%, 22%]24%34%-0.23+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC3.16 [2.45, 3.83]2.12+2.63 [1.98, 3.24]3.76 [2.98, 4.30]14% [0%, 29%]31%55%-0.01+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC3.16 [2.33, 3.81]2.12+2.63 [1.95, 3.27]3.76 [2.90, 4.32]14% [0%, 31%]31%55%-0.01+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC3.16 [2.33, 3.85]2.12+2.63 [1.97, 3.29]3.76 [2.82, 4.32]14% [0%, 32%]31%55%-0.01+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC3.16 [2.29, 3.89]2.12+2.63 [1.88, 3.29]3.76 [2.83, 4.34]14% [0%, 33%]31%55%-0.01+0.332026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC3.35 [2.86, 3.84]2.07+2.97 [2.29, 3.53]3.91 [3.48, 4.35]17% [3%, 30%]34%45%-0.07+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC3.35 [2.84, 3.82]2.07+2.97 [2.34, 3.59]3.91 [3.46, 4.30]17% [0%, 31%]34%45%-0.07+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC3.35 [2.78, 3.84]2.07+2.97 [2.23, 3.60]3.91 [3.41, 4.31]17% [0%, 33%]34%45%-0.07+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC3.35 [2.84, 3.84]2.07+2.97 [2.26, 3.59]3.91 [3.43, 4.37]17% [0%, 33%]34%45%-0.07+0.342026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.74 [2.21, 3.29]2.02+2.11 [1.48, 2.65]3.28 [2.75, 3.76]24% [7%, 43%]38%59%+0.13+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.74 [2.20, 3.28]2.02+2.11 [1.51, 2.68]3.28 [2.67, 3.74]24% [5%, 45%]38%59%+0.13+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.74 [2.17, 3.28]2.02+2.11 [1.43, 2.69]3.28 [2.62, 3.75]24% [0%, 48%]38%59%+0.13+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC2.74 [2.14, 3.33]2.02+2.11 [1.43, 2.72]3.28 [2.62, 3.81]24% [5%, 45%]38%59%+0.13+0.362026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KEWR, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -1.11 °F2026-08-03: -7.09 °F2026-08-04: -0.13 °F2026-08-05: -6.39 °F2026-08-06: -1.09 °F2026-08-07: -1.39 °F2026-08-08: +0.83 °F2026-08-09: +1.87 °F2026-08-10: +1.44 °F2026-08-11: +3.68 °F2026-08-12: -0.28 °F2026-08-13: -0.41 °F2026-08-14: +0.24 °F2026-08-15: -0.86 °F2026-08-16: -2.76 °F2026-08-17: -0.5 °F2026-08-18: +1.65 °F2026-08-19: -1 °F2026-08-20: -7.32 °F2026-08-21: -1.02 °F2026-08-22: -4.53 °F2026-08-23: +0.08 °F2026-08-24: -1.32 °F2026-08-25: -3.49 °F2026-08-26: -1.32 °F2026-08-27: -0.22 °F2026-08-28: -0.61 °F2026-08-29: +1 °F2026-08-30: +4.02 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+4.02
2026-08-29+1.00
2026-08-28-0.61
2026-08-27-0.22
2026-08-26-1.32
2026-08-25-3.49
2026-08-24-1.32
2026-08-23+0.08
2026-08-22-4.53
2026-08-21-1.02
2026-08-20-7.32
2026-08-19-1.00
2026-08-18+1.65
2026-08-17-0.50
2026-08-16-2.76
2026-08-15-0.86
2026-08-14+0.24
2026-08-13-0.41
2026-08-12-0.28
2026-08-11+3.68
2026-08-10+1.44
2026-08-09+1.87
2026-08-08+0.83
2026-08-07-1.39
2026-08-06-1.09
2026-08-05-6.39
2026-08-04-0.13
2026-08-03-7.09
2026-08-02-1.11

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KEWR, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 2 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 6 days-1 to 0 °F: 8 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 1 day5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.11 · P90 |e| 4.91 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.002
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.006
-1.00+0.008
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.001
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08291.99 -0.97

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
NCEP GFS2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 29 -0.72 [-1.42, -0.09] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 +1.17 [1.17, 1.17] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.56 [-3.01, 1.89] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +2.01 [2.01, 2.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.66 [0.63, 0.69] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -0.57 [-0.57, -0.57] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -2.77 [-3.24, -2.18] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -2.53 [-3.54, -1.04] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +2.09 [2.09, 2.09] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +1.90 [0.99, 2.80] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 -0.87 [-1.87, -0.11] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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