Newark Liberty · Persistence (baseline) · lead day 1
KEWR · persistence · lead 1
Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.
Scores use the latest model version segment, obs, starting 2024-01-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.
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Every number for this combination
All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.
| Variable | Init | Method | Window | n | MAE °F | MAE debiased | Bias °F | RMSE °F | ±1 °F | ±2 °F | ±3 °F | Skill | Skill, debiased | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.80 [2.07, 3.47] | 2.80 | +0.20 [-0.53, 0.80] | 3.46 [2.59, 4.16] | 30% [20%, 43%] | 50% | 60% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 4.44 [3.66, 5.33] | 4.45 | -0.09 [-0.82, 0.59] | 5.91 [4.79, 7.02] | 23% [17%, 30%] | 33% | 48% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 6.04 [5.32, 6.88] | 6.04 | -0.01 [-0.51, 0.51] | 8.24 [7.28, 9.23] | 20% [15%, 24%] | 30% | 38% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 6.06 [5.62, 6.54] | 6.06 | -0.03 [-0.34, 0.26] | 8.06 [7.47, 8.72] | 16% [13%, 18%] | 27% | 35% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.80 [2.07, 3.47] | 2.80 | +0.20 [-0.53, 0.80] | 3.46 [2.59, 4.16] | 30% [20%, 43%] | 50% | 60% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 4.44 [3.66, 5.33] | 4.45 | -0.09 [-0.82, 0.59] | 5.91 [4.79, 7.02] | 23% [17%, 30%] | 33% | 48% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 6.04 [5.32, 6.88] | 6.04 | -0.01 [-0.51, 0.51] | 8.24 [7.28, 9.23] | 20% [15%, 24%] | 30% | 38% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 00Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 6.06 [5.62, 6.54] | 6.06 | -0.03 [-0.34, 0.26] | 8.06 [7.47, 8.72] | 16% [13%, 18%] | 27% | 35% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.80 [2.07, 3.47] | 2.80 | +0.20 [-0.53, 0.80] | 3.46 [2.59, 4.16] | 30% [20%, 43%] | 50% | 60% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 4.44 [3.66, 5.33] | 4.45 | -0.09 [-0.82, 0.59] | 5.91 [4.79, 7.02] | 23% [17%, 30%] | 33% | 48% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 6.04 [5.32, 6.88] | 6.04 | -0.01 [-0.51, 0.51] | 8.24 [7.28, 9.23] | 20% [15%, 24%] | 30% | 38% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 6.06 [5.62, 6.54] | 6.06 | -0.03 [-0.34, 0.26] | 8.06 [7.47, 8.72] | 16% [13%, 18%] | 27% | 35% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 2.80 [2.07, 3.47] | 2.80 | +0.20 [-0.53, 0.80] | 3.46 [2.59, 4.16] | 30% [20%, 43%] | 50% | 60% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 4.44 [3.66, 5.33] | 4.45 | -0.09 [-0.82, 0.59] | 5.91 [4.79, 7.02] | 23% [17%, 30%] | 33% | 48% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 6.04 [5.32, 6.88] | 6.04 | -0.01 [-0.51, 0.51] | 8.24 [7.28, 9.23] | 20% [15%, 24%] | 30% | 38% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmax | 12Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 6.06 [5.62, 6.54] | 6.06 | -0.03 [-0.34, 0.26] | 8.06 [7.47, 8.72] | 16% [13%, 18%] | 27% | 35% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 3.10 [2.37, 4.07] | 3.11 | +0.10 [-0.73, 0.87] | 3.76 [2.94, 4.71] | 20% [7%, 30%] | 40% | 53% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 3.27 [2.84, 3.79] | 3.27 | -0.09 [-0.57, 0.38] | 4.02 [3.54, 4.57] | 24% [18%, 31%] | 42% | 53% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.52 [4.05, 5.07] | 4.53 | -0.02 [-0.40, 0.37] | 5.92 [5.28, 6.60] | 18% [14%, 22%] | 32% | 43% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 4.27 [4.00, 4.56] | 4.27 | -0.03 [-0.25, 0.19] | 5.53 [5.18, 5.89] | 18% [16%, 21%] | 32% | 45% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 3.10 [2.37, 4.07] | 3.11 | +0.10 [-0.73, 0.87] | 3.76 [2.94, 4.71] | 20% [7%, 30%] | 40% | 53% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 3.27 [2.84, 3.79] | 3.27 | -0.09 [-0.57, 0.38] | 4.02 [3.54, 4.57] | 24% [18%, 31%] | 42% | 53% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.52 [4.05, 5.07] | 4.53 | -0.02 [-0.40, 0.37] | 5.92 [5.28, 6.60] | 18% [14%, 22%] | 32% | 43% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 00Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 4.27 [4.00, 4.56] | 4.27 | -0.03 [-0.25, 0.19] | 5.53 [5.18, 5.89] | 18% [16%, 21%] | 32% | 45% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | 30d | 30 1 QC | 3.10 [2.37, 4.07] | 3.11 | +0.10 [-0.73, 0.87] | 3.76 [2.94, 4.71] | 20% [7%, 30%] | 40% | 53% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | 90d | 90 1 QC | 3.27 [2.84, 3.79] | 3.27 | -0.09 [-0.57, 0.38] | 4.02 [3.54, 4.57] | 24% [18%, 31%] | 42% | 53% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.52 [4.05, 5.07] | 4.53 | -0.02 [-0.40, 0.37] | 5.92 [5.28, 6.60] | 18% [14%, 22%] | 32% | 43% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | bilinear | all | 972 1 QC | 4.27 [4.00, 4.56] | 4.27 | -0.03 [-0.25, 0.19] | 5.53 [5.18, 5.89] | 18% [16%, 21%] | 32% | 45% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | 30d | 30 1 QC | 3.10 [2.37, 4.07] | 3.11 | +0.10 [-0.73, 0.87] | 3.76 [2.94, 4.71] | 20% [7%, 30%] | 40% | 53% | — | — | 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | 90d | 90 1 QC | 3.27 [2.84, 3.79] | 3.27 | -0.09 [-0.57, 0.38] | 4.02 [3.54, 4.57] | 24% [18%, 31%] | 42% | 53% | — | — | 2026-06-02 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | 365d | 365 1 QC | 4.52 [4.05, 5.07] | 4.53 | -0.02 [-0.40, 0.37] | 5.92 [5.28, 6.60] | 18% [14%, 22%] | 32% | 43% | — | — | 2025-08-31 → 2026-08-30 |
| tmin | 12Z | nearest | all | 972 1 QC | 4.27 [4.00, 4.56] | 4.27 | -0.03 [-0.25, 0.19] | 5.53 [5.18, 5.89] | 18% [16%, 21%] | 32% | 45% | — | — | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 |
+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.
Daily error, last 90 days
Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Persistence (baseline) at KEWR, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax: no scored days yet.
The same series as a table (0 days, newest first) · download CSV
| Climatological day | Error °F |
|---|
Error distribution
Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Persistence (baseline) at KEWR, lead day 1: no scored days yet.
Availability
| Model | Scored period | Days | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 | |
| Persistence (baseline) | 2024-01-02 → 2026-08-30 | 972 |
Compared with other models
Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Persistence (baseline) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.
| Other model | Common days | MAE difference °F | Distinguishable |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS Single | 29 | +0.15 [-0.42, 0.77] | no |
| Aurora (GFS init) | 1 | -1.84 [-1.84, -1.84] | yes |
| Aurora (IFS init) | 2 | +0.93 [-1.13, 2.99] | no |
| FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) | 1 | -1.01 [-1.01, -1.01] | yes |
| FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) | 2 | +2.15 [-2.33, 6.63] | no |
| NCEP GFS | 29 | +0.87 [0.11, 1.87] | yes |
| GraphCast (GFS init) | 1 | -3.59 [-3.59, -3.59] | yes |
| GraphCast (IFS init) | 27 | -2.21 [-2.62, -1.62] | yes |
| ECMWF IFS HRES | 23 | -1.74 [-2.54, -0.17] | yes |
| Pangu-Weather (GFS init) | 1 | -0.93 [-0.93, -0.93] | yes |
| Pangu-Weather (IFS init) | 2 | +3.38 [-0.22, 6.99] | no |
Cite this page
ShortCastCheck, KEWR persistence lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/persistence/lead/1/
LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model persistence, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/persistence/lead/1/
Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)