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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 1

KEWR · ifs_hres · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC4.30 [3.07, 5.33]2.59-3.94 [-5.24, -2.20]5.05 [3.66, 5.93]9% [0%, 19%]26%39%-0.68-0.042026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC4.30 [2.57, 5.34]2.59-3.94 [-5.27, -1.82]5.05 [3.03, 5.99]9% [0%, 22%]26%39%-0.68-0.042026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC4.30 [2.69, 5.34]2.59-3.94 [-5.28, -1.79]5.05 [3.01, 5.98]9% [0%, 23%]26%39%-0.68-0.042026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall23 1 QC4.30 [2.57, 5.41]2.59-3.94 [-5.30, -1.73]5.05 [2.81, 6.00]9% [0%, 25%]26%39%-0.68-0.042026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d23 1 QC4.31 [3.18, 5.27]2.67-3.85 [-5.23, -2.00]5.09 [3.73, 5.96]9% [0%, 19%]22%39%-0.68-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d23 1 QC4.31 [2.77, 5.29]2.67-3.85 [-5.28, -1.53]5.09 [3.16, 6.01]9% [0%, 22%]22%39%-0.68-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d23 1 QC4.31 [2.85, 5.28]2.67-3.85 [-5.28, -1.65]5.09 [3.16, 5.99]9% [0%, 23%]22%39%-0.68-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall23 1 QC4.31 [2.73, 5.34]2.67-3.85 [-5.32, -1.55]5.09 [3.02, 6.03]9% [0%, 25%]22%39%-0.68-0.072026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC3.97 [2.92, 4.99]2.06-3.61 [-4.74, -2.32]4.48 [3.33, 5.38]8% [0%, 17%]21%29%-0.51+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC3.97 [2.65, 5.02]2.06-3.61 [-4.79, -2.06]4.48 [3.02, 5.43]8% [0%, 18%]21%29%-0.51+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC3.97 [2.78, 4.99]2.06-3.61 [-4.80, -2.07]4.48 [3.09, 5.41]8% [0%, 18%]21%29%-0.51+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall24 1 QC3.97 [2.62, 5.07]2.06-3.61 [-4.90, -1.92]4.48 [3.01, 5.45]8% [0%, 18%]21%29%-0.51+0.182026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d24 1 QC4.04 [2.97, 5.04]2.44-3.33 [-4.65, -1.86]4.55 [3.33, 5.51]0% [0%, 0%]12%42%-0.54+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d24 1 QC4.04 [2.75, 5.09]2.44-3.33 [-4.67, -1.58]4.55 [3.12, 5.56]0% [0%, 0%]12%42%-0.54+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d24 1 QC4.04 [2.79, 5.09]2.44-3.33 [-4.72, -1.64]4.55 [3.08, 5.51]0% [0%, 0%]12%42%-0.54+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall24 1 QC4.04 [2.74, 5.21]2.44-3.33 [-4.87, -1.38]4.55 [3.05, 5.61]0% [0%, 0%]12%42%-0.54+0.032026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d23 1 QC2.21 [1.36, 3.01]1.93+1.02 [0.26, 1.88]2.61 [1.62, 3.29]26% [5%, 48%]48%74%+0.18+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d23 1 QC2.21 [1.18, 3.04]1.93+1.02 [0.10, 1.95]2.61 [1.33, 3.31]26% [0%, 50%]48%74%+0.18+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d23 1 QC2.21 [1.06, 3.09]1.93+1.02 [0.18, 1.95]2.61 [1.23, 3.32]26% [0%, 57%]48%74%+0.18+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall23 1 QC2.21 [1.18, 3.11]1.93+1.02 [-0.04, 1.89]2.61 [1.35, 3.35]26% [0%, 50%]48%74%+0.18+0.292026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d23 1 QC2.04 [1.21, 2.91]2.00+0.29 [-0.51, 1.23]2.55 [1.59, 3.34]35% [9%, 63%]43%78%+0.24+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d23 1 QC2.04 [0.98, 2.96]2.00+0.29 [-0.62, 1.28]2.55 [1.40, 3.40]35% [0%, 71%]43%78%+0.24+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d23 1 QC2.04 [0.85, 2.99]2.00+0.29 [-0.58, 1.29]2.55 [1.20, 3.44]35% [0%, 77%]43%78%+0.24+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall23 1 QC2.04 [0.98, 2.99]2.00+0.29 [-0.79, 1.21]2.55 [1.36, 3.42]35% [0%, 70%]43%78%+0.24+0.262026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d24 1 QC2.21 [1.31, 3.02]2.03+1.02 [0.32, 1.88]2.69 [1.66, 3.30]21% [4%, 38%]54%67%+0.16+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d24 1 QC2.21 [1.08, 3.06]2.03+1.02 [0.23, 2.02]2.69 [1.28, 3.31]21% [0%, 43%]54%67%+0.16+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d24 1 QC2.21 [1.03, 3.11]2.03+1.02 [0.26, 1.94]2.69 [1.24, 3.32]21% [0%, 45%]54%67%+0.16+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall24 1 QC2.21 [1.09, 3.12]2.03+1.02 [0.05, 2.00]2.69 [1.27, 3.34]21% [0%, 42%]54%67%+0.16+0.232026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d24 1 QC2.10 [1.27, 2.82]2.07+0.29 [-0.39, 1.18]2.59 [1.51, 3.23]25% [4%, 46%]58%79%+0.20+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d24 1 QC2.10 [1.10, 2.84]2.07+0.29 [-0.49, 1.32]2.59 [1.26, 3.24]25% [0%, 50%]58%79%+0.20+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d24 1 QC2.10 [0.98, 2.88]2.07+0.29 [-0.42, 1.25]2.59 [1.14, 3.29]25% [0%, 53%]58%79%+0.20+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall24 1 QC2.10 [1.06, 2.87]2.07+0.29 [-0.61, 1.30]2.59 [1.23, 3.28]25% [0%, 50%]58%79%+0.20+0.222026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+20+100-10-202026-08-02: -2.46 °F2026-08-09: -3.01 °F2026-08-10: +1.76 °F2026-08-11: +1.49 °F2026-08-12: -4.38 °F2026-08-13: -6.59 °F2026-08-14: -1.43 °F2026-08-15: -3.46 °F2026-08-16: +0.2 °F2026-08-17: -5 °F2026-08-18: -2.61 °F2026-08-19: -5.77 °F2026-08-20: -11.26 °F2026-08-21: -2 °F2026-08-22: -6 °F2026-08-23: -2.8 °F2026-08-24: -6.18 °F2026-08-25: -6.92 °F2026-08-26: -4.61 °F2026-08-27: -6.66 °F2026-08-28: -8.4 °F2026-08-29: -5.28 °F2026-08-30: +0.68 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+0.68
2026-08-29-5.28
2026-08-28-8.40
2026-08-27-6.66
2026-08-26-4.61
2026-08-25-6.92
2026-08-24-6.18
2026-08-23-2.80
2026-08-22-6.00
2026-08-21-2.00
2026-08-20-11.26
2026-08-19-5.77
2026-08-18-2.61
2026-08-17-5.00
2026-08-16+0.20
2026-08-15-3.46
2026-08-14-1.43
2026-08-13-6.59
2026-08-12-4.38
2026-08-11+1.49
2026-08-10+1.76
2026-08-09-3.01
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04—
2026-08-03—
2026-08-02-2.46

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KEWR, lead day 1-20 to -18 °F: 0 days-18 to -16 °F: 0 days-16 to -14 °F: 0 days-14 to -12 °F: 0 days-12 to -10 °F: 1 day-10 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -6 °F: 4 days-6 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 10 °F: 0 days10 to 12 °F: 0 days12 to 14 °F: 0 days14 to 16 °F: 0 days16 to 18 °F: 0 days18 to 20 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 4.38 · P90 |e| 6.86 °F-200+20 °Fn = 23 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-20.00-18.000
-18.00-16.000
-16.00-14.000
-14.00-12.000
-12.00-10.001
-10.00-8.001
-8.00-6.004
-6.00-4.006
-4.00-2.005
-2.00+0.002
+0.00+2.004
+2.00+4.000
+4.00+6.000
+6.00+8.000
+8.00+10.000
+10.00+12.000
+12.00+14.000
+14.00+16.000
+16.00+18.000
+18.00+20.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08234.30 -3.94

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 23
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 24

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 23 +1.99 [1.18, 2.38] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -2.16 [-2.16, -2.16] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.09 [-1.45, 1.27] no
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -1.33 [-1.33, -1.33] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.12 [-2.65, 4.90] no
NCEP GFS 23 +2.53 [1.04, 3.54] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -3.91 [-3.91, -3.91] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 21 -0.40 [-1.42, 0.21] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 -1.25 [-1.25, -1.25] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +2.36 [-0.54, 5.26] no
Persistence (baseline) 23 +1.74 [0.17, 2.54] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR ifs_hres lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model ifs_hres, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/ifs_hres/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence