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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 1

KEWR · aifs_single · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.71 [1.92, 3.46]1.47-2.68 [-3.46, -1.86]3.29 [2.42, 4.15]24% [7%, 41%]41%59%+0.05+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.71 [1.89, 3.61]1.47-2.68 [-3.60, -1.84]3.29 [2.34, 4.32]24% [0%, 43%]41%59%+0.05+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.71 [1.78, 3.59]1.47-2.68 [-3.59, -1.72]3.29 [2.20, 4.30]24% [0%, 43%]41%59%+0.05+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.71 [1.92, 3.69]1.47-2.68 [-3.69, -1.87]3.29 [2.40, 4.50]24% [0%, 43%]41%59%+0.05+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d29 1 QC2.65 [1.83, 3.41]1.49-2.63 [-3.41, -1.80]3.26 [2.38, 4.10]24% [7%, 41%]41%59%+0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d29 1 QC2.65 [1.81, 3.53]1.49-2.63 [-3.53, -1.78]3.26 [2.29, 4.25]24% [0%, 43%]41%59%+0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d29 1 QC2.65 [1.71, 3.51]1.49-2.63 [-3.51, -1.66]3.26 [2.15, 4.24]24% [0%, 43%]41%59%+0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall29 1 QC2.65 [1.84, 3.59]1.49-2.63 [-3.59, -1.79]3.26 [2.35, 4.44]24% [0%, 43%]41%59%+0.07+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.48 [1.75, 3.14]1.45-2.46 [-3.13, -1.71]3.08 [2.23, 3.78]24% [7%, 41%]48%66%+0.13+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.48 [1.72, 3.24]1.45-2.46 [-3.24, -1.67]3.08 [2.16, 3.92]24% [0%, 43%]48%66%+0.13+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.48 [1.64, 3.24]1.45-2.46 [-3.24, -1.60]3.08 [2.06, 3.92]24% [0%, 43%]48%66%+0.13+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.48 [1.71, 3.26]1.45-2.46 [-3.26, -1.68]3.08 [2.23, 3.97]24% [0%, 43%]48%66%+0.13+0.492026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d29 1 QC2.43 [1.66, 3.11]1.48-2.41 [-3.10, -1.64]3.05 [2.17, 3.72]31% [10%, 52%]48%66%+0.15+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d29 1 QC2.43 [1.60, 3.24]1.48-2.41 [-3.24, -1.58]3.05 [2.13, 3.88]31% [0%, 52%]48%66%+0.15+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d29 1 QC2.43 [1.55, 3.21]1.48-2.41 [-3.21, -1.51]3.05 [2.02, 3.87]31% [0%, 53%]48%66%+0.15+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall29 1 QC2.43 [1.62, 3.26]1.48-2.41 [-3.26, -1.59]3.05 [2.16, 3.96]31% [0%, 53%]48%66%+0.15+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.09 [1.53, 2.53]1.65+1.39 [0.77, 1.98]2.44 [1.84, 2.92]24% [10%, 43%]55%83%+0.33+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.09 [1.47, 2.57]1.65+1.39 [0.71, 2.06]2.44 [1.71, 3.02]24% [10%, 47%]55%83%+0.33+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.09 [1.28, 2.59]1.65+1.39 [0.53, 2.06]2.44 [1.41, 3.02]24% [9%, 50%]55%83%+0.33+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.09 [1.42, 2.59]1.65+1.39 [0.61, 2.01]2.44 [1.65, 3.02]24% [7%, 47%]55%83%+0.33+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d29 1 QC1.75 [1.34, 2.23]1.65+0.50 [-0.14, 1.13]2.08 [1.65, 2.51]24% [7%, 41%]69%83%+0.44+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d29 1 QC1.75 [1.28, 2.29]1.65+0.50 [-0.23, 1.22]2.08 [1.60, 2.59]24% [0%, 44%]69%83%+0.44+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d29 1 QC1.75 [1.16, 2.31]1.65+0.50 [-0.44, 1.21]2.08 [1.47, 2.59]24% [0%, 50%]69%83%+0.44+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall29 1 QC1.75 [1.26, 2.33]1.65+0.50 [-0.34, 1.15]2.08 [1.57, 2.65]24% [0%, 45%]69%83%+0.44+0.482026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d29 1 QC2.02 [1.42, 2.54]1.70+1.39 [0.88, 1.95]2.48 [1.86, 2.93]28% [10%, 47%]55%66%+0.36+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d29 1 QC2.02 [1.31, 2.57]1.70+1.39 [0.81, 1.98]2.48 [1.73, 2.98]28% [10%, 53%]55%66%+0.36+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d29 1 QC2.02 [1.01, 2.60]1.70+1.39 [0.68, 2.01]2.48 [1.27, 3.00]28% [9%, 57%]55%66%+0.36+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall29 1 QC2.02 [1.24, 2.59]1.70+1.39 [0.73, 1.95]2.48 [1.64, 3.00]28% [9%, 56%]55%66%+0.36+0.462026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d29 1 QC1.74 [1.24, 2.22]1.68+0.51 [-0.04, 1.09]2.11 [1.60, 2.52]31% [14%, 54%]62%83%+0.44+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d29 1 QC1.74 [1.16, 2.27]1.68+0.51 [-0.14, 1.17]2.11 [1.49, 2.58]31% [13%, 55%]62%83%+0.44+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d29 1 QC1.74 [0.94, 2.29]1.68+0.51 [-0.30, 1.17]2.11 [1.08, 2.58]31% [14%, 62%]62%83%+0.44+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall29 1 QC1.74 [1.14, 2.28]1.68+0.51 [-0.22, 1.12]2.11 [1.46, 2.60]31% [14%, 57%]62%83%+0.44+0.472026-08-02 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-02: -1.6 °F2026-08-03: -8.7 °F2026-08-04: -0.98 °F2026-08-05: -3.59 °F2026-08-06: -4.34 °F2026-08-07: -6.2 °F2026-08-08: -1.59 °F2026-08-09: -0.86 °F2026-08-10: -0.9 °F2026-08-11: +0.16 °F2026-08-12: -3.39 °F2026-08-13: -1.5 °F2026-08-14: -0.67 °F2026-08-15: -2.92 °F2026-08-16: +0.24 °F2026-08-17: -1.34 °F2026-08-18: -0.69 °F2026-08-19: -4.1 °F2026-08-20: -3.61 °F2026-08-21: -3.44 °F2026-08-22: -1.84 °F2026-08-23: -2.86 °F2026-08-24: -3.2 °F2026-08-25: -4.24 °F2026-08-26: -3.12 °F2026-08-27: -2.65 °F2026-08-28: -4.95 °F2026-08-29: -2.87 °F2026-08-30: -2 °F2026-08-022026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (29 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.00
2026-08-29-2.87
2026-08-28-4.95
2026-08-27-2.65
2026-08-26-3.12
2026-08-25-4.24
2026-08-24-3.20
2026-08-23-2.86
2026-08-22-1.84
2026-08-21-3.44
2026-08-20-3.61
2026-08-19-4.10
2026-08-18-0.69
2026-08-17-1.34
2026-08-16+0.24
2026-08-15-2.92
2026-08-14-0.67
2026-08-13-1.50
2026-08-12-3.39
2026-08-11+0.16
2026-08-10-0.90
2026-08-09-0.86
2026-08-08-1.59
2026-08-07-6.20
2026-08-06-4.34
2026-08-05-3.59
2026-08-04-0.98
2026-08-03-8.70
2026-08-02-1.60

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KEWR, lead day 1-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 1 day-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 4 days-4 to -3 °F: 6 days-3 to -2 °F: 5 days-2 to -1 °F: 5 days-1 to 0 °F: 5 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.86 · P90 |e| 4.46 °F-100+10 °Fn = 29 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.001
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.004
-4.00-3.006
-3.00-2.005
-2.00-1.005
-1.00+0.005
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08292.71 -2.68

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-02 → 2026-08-30 29

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.84 [-0.84, -0.84] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 2 -0.63 [-1.13, -0.12] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.01 [-0.01, -0.01] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +0.59 [-1.33, 2.50] no
NCEP GFS 29 +0.72 [0.09, 1.42] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.59 [-2.59, -2.59] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 27 -2.25 [-2.54, -1.78] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 23 -1.99 [-2.38, -1.18] yes
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.07 [0.07, 0.07] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +1.82 [0.79, 2.86] yes
Persistence (baseline) 29 -0.15 [-0.77, 0.42] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aifs_single lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aifs_single, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aifs_single/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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