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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · Pangu-Weather (GFS init) · lead day 1

KEWR · pangu_gfs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, PANG_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0.00+1.93 [1.93, 1.93]1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0.00+1.93 [1.93, 1.93]1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0.00+1.93 [1.93, 1.93]1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall1 1 QC1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0.00+1.93 [1.93, 1.93]1.93 [1.93, 1.93]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%-0.93—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00+2.16 [2.16, 2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.16—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00+2.16 [2.16, 2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.16—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00+2.16 [2.16, 2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.16—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall1 1 QC2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0.00+2.16 [2.16, 2.16]2.16 [2.16, 2.16]0% [0%, 0%]0%100%-1.16—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.54 [0.82, 2.27]1.54+0.72 [-0.82, 2.27]1.70 [0.82, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.54 [0.82, 2.27]1.54+0.72 [-0.82, 2.27]1.70 [0.82, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.54 [0.82, 2.27]1.54+0.72 [-0.82, 2.27]1.70 [0.82, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.54 [0.82, 2.27]1.54+0.72 [-0.82, 2.27]1.70 [0.82, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.61+0.612026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.48 [0.68, 2.27]1.48+0.80 [-0.68, 2.27]1.68 [0.68, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.48 [0.68, 2.27]1.48+0.80 [-0.68, 2.27]1.68 [0.68, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.48 [0.68, 2.27]1.48+0.80 [-0.68, 2.27]1.68 [0.68, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC1.48 [0.68, 2.27]1.48+0.80 [-0.68, 2.27]1.68 [0.68, 2.27]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d1 1 QC0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.00+0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.80 [0.80, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.20—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d1 1 QC0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.00+0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.80 [0.80, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.20—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d1 1 QC0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.00+0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.80 [0.80, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.20—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall1 1 QC0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.00+0.80 [0.80, 0.80]0.80 [0.80, 0.80]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.20—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d1 1 QC0.37 [0.37, 0.37]0.00-0.37 [-0.37, -0.37]0.37 [0.37, 0.37]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d1 1 QC0.37 [0.37, 0.37]0.00-0.37 [-0.37, -0.37]0.37 [0.37, 0.37]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d1 1 QC0.37 [0.37, 0.37]0.00-0.37 [-0.37, -0.37]0.37 [0.37, 0.37]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall1 1 QC0.37 [0.37, 0.37]0.00-0.37 [-0.37, -0.37]0.37 [0.37, 0.37]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.63—2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.15+1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.69 [0.10, 2.39]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.64+0.672026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.15+1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.69 [0.10, 2.39]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.64+0.672026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.15+1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.69 [0.10, 2.39]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.64+0.672026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.15+1.25 [0.10, 2.39]1.69 [0.10, 2.39]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.64+0.672026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC1.29 [1.02, 1.56]1.29+0.27 [-1.02, 1.56]1.32 [1.02, 1.56]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC1.29 [1.02, 1.56]1.29+0.27 [-1.02, 1.56]1.32 [1.02, 1.56]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC1.29 [1.02, 1.56]1.29+0.27 [-1.02, 1.56]1.32 [1.02, 1.56]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC1.29 [1.02, 1.56]1.29+0.27 [-1.02, 1.56]1.32 [1.02, 1.56]0% [0%, 0%]100%100%+0.63+0.632026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KEWR, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+2+10-1-22026-08-30: +1.93 °F2026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (1 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+1.93

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Pangu-Weather (GFS init) at KEWR, lead day 1-2 to -1.8 °F: 0 days-1.8 to -1.6 °F: 0 days-1.6 to -1.4 °F: 0 days-1.4 to -1.2 °F: 0 days-1.2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.8 °F: 0 days-0.8 to -0.6 °F: 0 days-0.6 to -0.4 °F: 0 days-0.4 to -0.2 °F: 0 days-0.2 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.2 °F: 0 days0.2 to 0.4 °F: 0 days0.4 to 0.6 °F: 0 days0.6 to 0.8 °F: 0 days0.8 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.2 °F: 0 days1.2 to 1.4 °F: 0 days1.4 to 1.6 °F: 0 days1.6 to 1.8 °F: 0 days1.8 to 2 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 1.93 · P90 |e| 1.93 °F-20+2 °Fn = 1 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-2.00-1.800
-1.80-1.600
-1.60-1.400
-1.40-1.200
-1.20-1.000
-1.00-0.800
-0.80-0.600
-0.60-0.400
-0.40-0.200
-0.20+0.000
+0.00+0.200
+0.20+0.400
+0.40+0.600
+0.60+0.800
+0.80+1.000
+1.00+1.200
+1.20+1.400
+1.40+1.600
+1.60+1.800
+1.80+2.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0811.93 +1.93

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30 1
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Pangu-Weather (GFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Pangu-Weather (GFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 1 -0.07 [-0.07, -0.07] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.92 [-0.92, -0.92] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 1 -0.20 [-0.20, -0.20] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 -0.08 [-0.08, -0.08] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 1 -1.40 [-1.40, -1.40] yes
NCEP GFS 1 -2.09 [-2.09, -2.09] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.66 [-2.66, -2.66] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 1 -2.05 [-2.05, -2.05] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 1 +1.25 [1.25, 1.25] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 1 +0.71 [0.71, 0.71] yes
Persistence (baseline) 1 +0.93 [0.93, 0.93] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR pangu_gfs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model pangu_gfs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/pangu_gfs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence