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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Newark Liberty · Aurora (IFS init) · lead day 1

KEWR · aurora_ifs · lead 1

Target day = initialization date + 1 day. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, AURO_v100, starting 2026-08-28 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 1 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC3.07 [2.13, 4.01]0.94-3.07 [-4.01, -2.13]3.21 [2.13, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.23+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC3.07 [2.13, 4.01]0.94-3.07 [-4.01, -2.13]3.21 [2.13, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.23+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC3.07 [2.13, 4.01]0.94-3.07 [-4.01, -2.13]3.21 [2.13, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.23+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall2 1 QC3.07 [2.13, 4.01]0.94-3.07 [-4.01, -2.13]3.21 [2.13, 4.01]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.23+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d2 1 QC2.98 [2.20, 3.77]0.78-2.98 [-3.77, -2.20]3.08 [2.20, 3.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.25+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d2 1 QC2.98 [2.20, 3.77]0.78-2.98 [-3.77, -2.20]3.08 [2.20, 3.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.25+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d2 1 QC2.98 [2.20, 3.77]0.78-2.98 [-3.77, -2.20]3.08 [2.20, 3.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.25+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall2 1 QC2.98 [2.20, 3.77]0.78-2.98 [-3.77, -2.20]3.08 [2.20, 3.77]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%+0.25+0.802026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC4.07 [2.99, 5.15]1.08-4.07 [-5.15, -2.99]4.21 [2.99, 5.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.02+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC4.07 [2.99, 5.15]1.08-4.07 [-5.15, -2.99]4.21 [2.99, 5.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.02+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC4.07 [2.99, 5.15]1.08-4.07 [-5.15, -2.99]4.21 [2.99, 5.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.02+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall2 1 QC4.07 [2.99, 5.15]1.08-4.07 [-5.15, -2.99]4.21 [2.99, 5.15]0% [0%, 0%]0%50%-0.02+0.732026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d2 1 QC4.05 [3.10, 5.00]0.95-4.05 [-5.00, -3.10]4.16 [3.10, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.01+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d2 1 QC4.05 [3.10, 5.00]0.95-4.05 [-5.00, -3.10]4.16 [3.10, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.01+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d2 1 QC4.05 [3.10, 5.00]0.95-4.05 [-5.00, -3.10]4.16 [3.10, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.01+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall2 1 QC4.05 [3.10, 5.00]0.95-4.05 [-5.00, -3.10]4.16 [3.10, 5.00]0% [0%, 0%]0%0%-0.01+0.762026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d2 1 QC1.43 [0.78, 2.08]0.65+1.43 [0.78, 2.08]1.57 [0.78, 2.08]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.59+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d2 1 QC1.43 [0.78, 2.08]0.65+1.43 [0.78, 2.08]1.57 [0.78, 2.08]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.59+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d2 1 QC1.43 [0.78, 2.08]0.65+1.43 [0.78, 2.08]1.57 [0.78, 2.08]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.59+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall2 1 QC1.43 [0.78, 2.08]0.65+1.43 [0.78, 2.08]1.57 [0.78, 2.08]50% [0%, 100%]50%100%+0.59+0.812026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d2 1 QC0.97 [0.67, 1.27]0.97+0.30 [-0.67, 1.27]1.02 [0.67, 1.27]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d2 1 QC0.97 [0.67, 1.27]0.97+0.30 [-0.67, 1.27]1.02 [0.67, 1.27]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d2 1 QC0.97 [0.67, 1.27]0.97+0.30 [-0.67, 1.27]1.02 [0.67, 1.27]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall2 1 QC0.97 [0.67, 1.27]0.97+0.30 [-0.67, 1.27]1.02 [0.67, 1.27]50% [0%, 100%]100%100%+0.72+0.722026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d2 1 QC0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.35+0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.64 [0.18, 0.89]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.85+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d2 1 QC0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.35+0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.64 [0.18, 0.89]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.85+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d2 1 QC0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.35+0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.64 [0.18, 0.89]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.85+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall2 1 QC0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.35+0.53 [0.18, 0.89]0.64 [0.18, 0.89]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.85+0.902026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d2 1 QC0.50 [0.04, 0.95]0.50-0.45 [-0.95, 0.04]0.67 [0.04, 0.95]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86+0.862026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d2 1 QC0.50 [0.04, 0.95]0.50-0.45 [-0.95, 0.04]0.67 [0.04, 0.95]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86+0.862026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d2 1 QC0.50 [0.04, 0.95]0.50-0.45 [-0.95, 0.04]0.67 [0.04, 0.95]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86+0.862026-08-29 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall2 1 QC0.50 [0.04, 0.95]0.50-0.45 [-0.95, 0.04]0.67 [0.04, 0.95]100% [100%, 100%]100%100%+0.86+0.862026-08-29 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KEWR, lead day 1, 00Z bilinear tmax+5+2.50-2.5-52026-08-29: -4.01 °F2026-08-30: -2.13 °F2026-08-292026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (2 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-2.13
2026-08-29-4.01

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for Aurora (IFS init) at KEWR, lead day 1-5 to -4.5 °F: 0 days-4.5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3.5 °F: 0 days-3.5 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2.5 °F: 0 days-2.5 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1.5 °F: 0 days-1.5 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to -0.5 °F: 0 days-0.5 to 0 °F: 0 days0 to 0.5 °F: 0 days0.5 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 1.5 °F: 0 days1.5 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 2.5 °F: 0 days2.5 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 3.5 °F: 0 days3.5 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 4.5 °F: 0 days4.5 to 5 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.07 · P90 |e| 3.82 °F-50+5 °Fn = 2 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-5.00-4.500
-4.50-4.001
-4.00-3.500
-3.50-3.000
-3.00-2.500
-2.50-2.001
-2.00-1.500
-1.50-1.000
-1.00-0.500
-0.50+0.000
+0.00+0.500
+0.50+1.000
+1.00+1.500
+1.50+2.000
+2.00+2.500
+2.50+3.000
+3.00+3.500
+3.50+4.000
+4.00+4.500
+4.50+5.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-0823.07 -3.07

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2
Aurora (IFS init)2026-08-29 → 2026-08-30 2

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means Aurora (IFS init) has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 2 +0.63 [0.12, 1.13] yes
Aurora (GFS init) 1 -0.72 [-0.72, -0.72] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 1 +0.12 [0.12, 0.12] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 2 +1.21 [-1.20, 3.63] no
NCEP GFS 2 +0.56 [-1.89, 3.01] no
GraphCast (GFS init) 1 -2.46 [-2.46, -2.46] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 2 -1.28 [-1.86, -0.70] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 2 +0.09 [-1.27, 1.45] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 1 +0.20 [0.20, 0.20] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 2 +2.45 [0.91, 3.99] yes
Persistence (baseline) 2 -0.93 [-2.99, 1.13] no

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KEWR aurora_ifs lead 1, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KEWR (Newark Liberty), model aurora_ifs, lead day 1. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KEWR/model/aurora_ifs/lead/1/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence