Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · NCEP GFS · lead day 3

KOKC · gfs · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 2 QC3.28 [1.99, 4.80]2.60+2.44 [1.29, 3.64]4.22 [2.58, 5.67]22% [4%, 43%]41%52%+0.41+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 2 QC3.28 [1.89, 4.82]2.60+2.44 [1.27, 3.72]4.22 [2.46, 5.65]22% [0%, 43%]41%52%+0.41+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 2 QC3.28 [1.79, 5.01]2.60+2.44 [1.20, 3.85]4.22 [2.25, 5.81]22% [0%, 45%]41%52%+0.41+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 2 QC3.28 [1.84, 5.07]2.60+2.44 [1.23, 3.91]4.22 [2.39, 5.88]22% [0%, 43%]41%52%+0.41+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 2 QC3.66 [2.36, 5.17]2.75+2.58 [1.38, 3.79]4.57 [3.01, 6.01]19% [4%, 33%]37%48%+0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 2 QC3.66 [2.28, 5.22]2.75+2.58 [1.38, 3.87]4.57 [2.86, 6.02]19% [0%, 34%]37%48%+0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 2 QC3.66 [2.15, 5.43]2.75+2.58 [1.29, 4.05]4.57 [2.65, 6.16]19% [0%, 36%]37%48%+0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 2 QC3.66 [2.26, 5.42]2.75+2.58 [1.33, 4.08]4.57 [2.79, 6.24]19% [0%, 35%]37%48%+0.34+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 2 QC3.22 [2.06, 4.59]2.73+2.69 [1.67, 3.92]4.44 [2.79, 5.87]30% [13%, 43%]41%56%+0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 2 QC3.22 [1.94, 4.66]2.73+2.69 [1.59, 3.95]4.44 [2.52, 5.99]30% [8%, 43%]41%56%+0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 2 QC3.22 [1.87, 4.86]2.73+2.69 [1.50, 4.22]4.44 [2.38, 6.16]30% [9%, 43%]41%56%+0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 2 QC3.22 [1.94, 4.74]2.73+2.69 [1.49, 4.20]4.44 [2.57, 6.12]30% [7%, 43%]41%56%+0.42+0.492026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 2 QC3.34 [2.22, 4.65]2.66+2.87 [1.94, 4.03]4.48 [2.91, 5.89]30% [15%, 41%]37%56%+0.39+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 2 QC3.34 [2.11, 4.75]2.66+2.87 [1.79, 4.07]4.48 [2.67, 6.05]30% [12%, 41%]37%56%+0.39+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 2 QC3.34 [2.06, 4.93]2.66+2.87 [1.74, 4.26]4.48 [2.60, 6.18]30% [11%, 43%]37%56%+0.39+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 2 QC3.34 [2.11, 4.89]2.66+2.87 [1.74, 4.28]4.48 [2.67, 6.17]30% [10%, 43%]37%56%+0.39+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 2 QC5.32 [4.49, 6.05]2.94+4.45 [3.34, 5.35]6.03 [5.02, 6.80]7% [0%, 22%]15%19%-0.23+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 2 QC5.32 [4.35, 6.05]2.94+4.45 [3.31, 5.35]6.03 [4.80, 6.83]7% [0%, 24%]15%19%-0.23+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 2 QC5.32 [4.32, 6.08]2.94+4.45 [3.15, 5.46]6.03 [4.85, 6.89]7% [0%, 27%]15%19%-0.23+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 2 QC5.32 [4.27, 6.21]2.94+4.45 [3.26, 5.39]6.03 [4.84, 6.95]7% [0%, 24%]15%19%-0.23+0.322026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 2 QC5.62 [4.55, 6.58]3.15+4.52 [3.32, 5.57]6.30 [5.08, 7.21]7% [0%, 22%]7%22%-0.30+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 2 QC5.62 [4.32, 6.71]3.15+4.52 [3.28, 5.64]6.30 [4.80, 7.27]7% [0%, 24%]7%22%-0.30+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 2 QC5.62 [4.41, 6.65]3.15+4.52 [3.08, 5.69]6.30 [4.91, 7.26]7% [0%, 27%]7%22%-0.30+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 2 QC5.62 [4.37, 6.78]3.15+4.52 [3.28, 5.66]6.30 [4.83, 7.36]7% [0%, 24%]7%22%-0.30+0.272026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 2 QC4.01 [3.02, 4.89]2.44+3.45 [2.06, 4.79]4.57 [3.79, 5.19]7% [0%, 19%]26%30%+0.07+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 2 QC4.01 [2.85, 4.91]2.44+3.45 [1.89, 4.88]4.57 [3.63, 5.21]7% [0%, 19%]26%30%+0.07+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 2 QC4.01 [2.82, 4.94]2.44+3.45 [1.73, 4.92]4.57 [3.57, 5.25]7% [0%, 20%]26%30%+0.07+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 2 QC4.01 [2.79, 4.95]2.44+3.45 [1.78, 4.92]4.57 [3.57, 5.23]7% [0%, 19%]26%30%+0.07+0.432026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 2 QC4.25 [3.28, 5.12]2.82+3.50 [1.87, 5.01]4.85 [4.03, 5.54]7% [0%, 19%]22%33%+0.02+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 2 QC4.25 [3.12, 5.17]2.82+3.50 [1.68, 5.08]4.85 [3.91, 5.53]7% [0%, 19%]22%33%+0.02+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 2 QC4.25 [3.09, 5.22]2.82+3.50 [1.52, 5.16]4.85 [3.83, 5.60]7% [0%, 20%]22%33%+0.02+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 2 QC4.25 [3.04, 5.17]2.82+3.50 [1.54, 5.12]4.85 [3.80, 5.56]7% [0%, 19%]22%33%+0.02+0.352026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +1.43 °F2026-08-05: +4.82 °F2026-08-06: +3.83 °F2026-08-07: +5.6 °F2026-08-08: -0.36 °F2026-08-09: +0.58 °F2026-08-10: +0.24 °F2026-08-11: +3.04 °F2026-08-12: +1.39 °F2026-08-13: -0.71 °F2026-08-14: +0.27 °F2026-08-15: +3.06 °F2026-08-16: -2.12 °F2026-08-17: +3.85 °F2026-08-18: +1.4 °F2026-08-19: +5.61 °F2026-08-20: -7.64 °F2026-08-21: +5.09 °F2026-08-22: +9.34 °F2026-08-23: +8.82 °F2026-08-24: +1.03 °F2026-08-25: +2.14 °F2026-08-26: +7.26 °F2026-08-27: +4.09 °F2026-08-28: -0.43 °F2026-08-29: +1.86 °F2026-08-30: +2.47 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30+2.47
2026-08-29+1.86
2026-08-28-0.43
2026-08-27+4.09
2026-08-26+7.26
2026-08-25+2.14
2026-08-24+1.03
2026-08-23+8.82
2026-08-22+9.34
2026-08-21+5.09
2026-08-20-7.64
2026-08-19+5.61
2026-08-18+1.40
2026-08-17+3.85
2026-08-16-2.12
2026-08-15+3.06
2026-08-14+0.27
2026-08-13-0.71
2026-08-12+1.39
2026-08-11+3.04
2026-08-10+0.24
2026-08-09+0.58
2026-08-08-0.36
2026-08-07+5.60
2026-08-06+3.83
2026-08-05+4.82
2026-08-04+1.43

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 1 day-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 0 days-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 0 days-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 0 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 3 days1 to 2 °F: 5 days2 to 3 °F: 2 days3 to 4 °F: 4 days4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 3 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 1 day8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 1 daydashed: P50 |e| 2.47 · P90 |e| 7.41 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.001
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.000
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.000
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.000
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.003
+1.00+2.005
+2.00+3.002
+3.00+4.004
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.003
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.001
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.001

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.28 +2.44

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
NCEP GFS2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 27 -0.49 [-1.91, 1.11] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -4.73 [-6.95, -2.72] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.11 [-1.99, 1.87] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 -2.24 [-4.47, -0.97] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC gfs lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model gfs, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence