Raw model output on the native 0.25° grid — no MOS, no bias correction, no post-processing. Scores understate operational forecast quality. Read the fairness statement →

CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF AIFS Single · lead day 3

KOKC · aifs_single · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, aifs-single-gpid5, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d27 2 QC3.77 [3.25, 4.40]1.69-3.50 [-4.24, -2.81]4.13 [3.63, 4.66]7% [0%, 19%]19%30%+0.32+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d27 2 QC3.77 [3.20, 4.50]1.69-3.50 [-4.43, -2.79]4.13 [3.57, 4.71]7% [0%, 21%]19%30%+0.32+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d27 2 QC3.77 [3.19, 4.65]1.69-3.50 [-4.53, -2.79]4.13 [3.58, 4.84]7% [0%, 21%]19%30%+0.32+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall27 2 QC3.77 [3.20, 4.51]1.69-3.50 [-4.43, -2.77]4.13 [3.57, 4.72]7% [0%, 21%]19%30%+0.32+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d27 2 QC3.84 [3.24, 4.57]1.77-3.58 [-4.34, -2.88]4.25 [3.63, 4.89]7% [0%, 19%]22%30%+0.30+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d27 2 QC3.84 [3.18, 4.65]1.77-3.58 [-4.51, -2.87]4.25 [3.54, 4.96]7% [0%, 21%]22%30%+0.30+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d27 2 QC3.84 [3.17, 4.80]1.77-3.58 [-4.64, -2.86]4.25 [3.55, 5.03]7% [0%, 21%]22%30%+0.30+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall27 2 QC3.84 [3.17, 4.68]1.77-3.58 [-4.49, -2.88]4.25 [3.57, 4.96]7% [0%, 21%]22%30%+0.30+0.672026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d27 2 QC3.62 [3.19, 4.15]1.61-3.52 [-4.11, -3.06]4.00 [3.56, 4.43]4% [0%, 11%]19%41%+0.34+0.702026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d27 2 QC3.62 [3.20, 4.18]1.61-3.52 [-4.17, -3.05]4.00 [3.54, 4.44]4% [0%, 11%]19%41%+0.34+0.702026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d27 2 QC3.62 [3.20, 4.24]1.61-3.52 [-4.20, -3.04]4.00 [3.54, 4.48]4% [0%, 11%]19%41%+0.34+0.702026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall27 2 QC3.62 [3.19, 4.31]1.61-3.52 [-4.31, -3.02]4.00 [3.54, 4.50]4% [0%, 11%]19%41%+0.34+0.702026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d27 2 QC3.70 [3.18, 4.22]1.71-3.57 [-4.18, -3.06]4.10 [3.54, 4.54]4% [0%, 11%]22%41%+0.33+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d27 2 QC3.70 [3.18, 4.25]1.71-3.57 [-4.20, -3.09]4.10 [3.50, 4.58]4% [0%, 11%]22%41%+0.33+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d27 2 QC3.70 [3.19, 4.29]1.71-3.57 [-4.23, -3.06]4.10 [3.52, 4.63]4% [0%, 11%]22%41%+0.33+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall27 2 QC3.70 [3.18, 4.35]1.71-3.57 [-4.30, -3.06]4.10 [3.50, 4.62]4% [0%, 11%]22%41%+0.33+0.682026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d27 2 QC3.21 [2.27, 4.32]2.11+2.71 [1.38, 4.17]3.80 [2.69, 4.90]19% [7%, 33%]33%44%+0.26+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d27 2 QC3.21 [2.19, 4.71]2.11+2.71 [1.23, 4.59]3.80 [2.62, 5.16]19% [0%, 35%]33%44%+0.26+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d27 2 QC3.21 [2.16, 4.55]2.11+2.71 [1.21, 4.47]3.80 [2.59, 5.02]19% [0%, 36%]33%44%+0.26+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall27 2 QC3.21 [2.12, 4.68]2.11+2.71 [1.27, 4.64]3.80 [2.51, 5.18]19% [0%, 38%]33%44%+0.26+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d27 2 QC3.24 [2.27, 4.43]2.16+2.72 [1.29, 4.21]3.81 [2.72, 4.89]15% [4%, 30%]30%44%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d27 2 QC3.24 [2.19, 4.77]2.16+2.72 [1.08, 4.67]3.81 [2.63, 5.17]15% [0%, 31%]30%44%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d27 2 QC3.24 [2.14, 4.61]2.16+2.72 [0.98, 4.58]3.81 [2.61, 5.04]15% [0%, 33%]30%44%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall27 2 QC3.24 [2.14, 4.73]2.16+2.72 [1.11, 4.66]3.81 [2.57, 5.20]15% [0%, 31%]30%44%+0.25+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d27 2 QC3.11 [2.09, 4.43]2.05+2.80 [1.56, 4.32]3.81 [2.55, 5.12]22% [10%, 35%]33%52%+0.28+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d27 2 QC3.11 [2.01, 4.73]2.05+2.80 [1.41, 4.68]3.81 [2.46, 5.43]22% [9%, 38%]33%52%+0.28+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d27 2 QC3.11 [2.00, 4.59]2.05+2.80 [1.36, 4.56]3.81 [2.44, 5.24]22% [7%, 39%]33%52%+0.28+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall27 2 QC3.11 [1.96, 4.69]2.05+2.80 [1.44, 4.68]3.81 [2.39, 5.34]22% [8%, 38%]33%52%+0.28+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d27 2 QC3.18 [2.17, 4.53]2.08+2.84 [1.49, 4.42]3.86 [2.57, 5.17]19% [4%, 33%]33%48%+0.27+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d27 2 QC3.18 [2.09, 4.86]2.08+2.84 [1.33, 4.78]3.86 [2.50, 5.53]19% [0%, 36%]33%48%+0.27+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d27 2 QC3.18 [2.10, 4.71]2.08+2.84 [1.19, 4.71]3.86 [2.51, 5.29]19% [0%, 38%]33%48%+0.27+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall27 2 QC3.18 [2.07, 4.79]2.08+2.84 [1.32, 4.78]3.86 [2.46, 5.42]19% [0%, 38%]33%48%+0.27+0.522026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: -4.76 °F2026-08-05: -4.14 °F2026-08-06: -4.74 °F2026-08-07: -1.19 °F2026-08-08: -4.75 °F2026-08-09: -3.52 °F2026-08-10: -2.82 °F2026-08-11: -1.77 °F2026-08-12: -1.9 °F2026-08-13: -5.01 °F2026-08-14: -4.87 °F2026-08-15: -2.09 °F2026-08-16: -3.1 °F2026-08-17: -3.86 °F2026-08-18: -6.17 °F2026-08-19: -0.2 °F2026-08-20: -4.02 °F2026-08-21: -0.27 °F2026-08-22: +3.58 °F2026-08-23: -6.08 °F2026-08-24: -5.86 °F2026-08-25: -5.68 °F2026-08-26: -3.33 °F2026-08-27: -2.55 °F2026-08-28: -6.18 °F2026-08-29: -5.3 °F2026-08-30: -3.99 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.99
2026-08-29-5.30
2026-08-28-6.18
2026-08-27-2.55
2026-08-26-3.33
2026-08-25-5.68
2026-08-24-5.86
2026-08-23-6.08
2026-08-22+3.58
2026-08-21-0.27
2026-08-20-4.02
2026-08-19-0.20
2026-08-18-6.17
2026-08-17-3.86
2026-08-16-3.10
2026-08-15-2.09
2026-08-14-4.87
2026-08-13-5.01
2026-08-12-1.90
2026-08-11-1.77
2026-08-10-2.82
2026-08-09-3.52
2026-08-08-4.75
2026-08-07-1.19
2026-08-06-4.74
2026-08-05-4.14
2026-08-04-4.76

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF AIFS Single at KOKC, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 4 days-5 to -4 °F: 6 days-4 to -3 °F: 5 days-3 to -2 °F: 3 days-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 2 days0 to 1 °F: 0 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 0 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 3.99 · P90 |e| 5.95 °F-100+10 °Fn = 27 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.004
-5.00-4.006
-4.00-3.005
-3.00-2.003
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.002
+0.00+1.000
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.000
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08273.77 -3.50

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27
ECMWF AIFS Single2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 27

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF AIFS Single has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
NCEP GFS 27 +0.49 [-1.11, 1.91] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 25 -4.39 [-5.67, -2.57] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 22 +0.57 [-0.34, 1.89] no
Persistence (baseline) 27 -1.75 [-3.31, -0.28] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC aifs_single lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model aifs_single, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/aifs_single/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence