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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · ECMWF IFS HRES · lead day 3

KOKC · ifs_hres · lead 3

Target day = initialization date + 3 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, ifs-gpid161, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.22 [2.59, 3.74]2.46-2.38 [-3.48, -1.11]3.97 [3.20, 4.47]23% [9%, 40%]32%55%+0.44+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.22 [2.39, 3.91]2.46-2.38 [-3.72, -0.86]3.97 [2.96, 4.66]23% [6%, 45%]32%55%+0.44+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.22 [2.28, 4.00]2.46-2.38 [-3.83, -0.74]3.97 [2.89, 4.70]23% [7%, 50%]32%55%+0.44+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.22 [2.09, 3.84]2.46-2.38 [-3.71, -0.69]3.97 [2.73, 4.60]23% [6%, 50%]32%55%+0.44+0.572026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d22 2 QC2.96 [2.39, 3.46]2.35-2.06 [-3.05, -0.91]3.63 [2.89, 4.13]18% [4%, 33%]45%59%+0.49+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d22 2 QC2.96 [2.29, 3.65]2.35-2.06 [-3.34, -0.66]3.63 [2.71, 4.29]18% [0%, 33%]45%59%+0.49+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d22 2 QC2.96 [2.30, 3.73]2.35-2.06 [-3.42, -0.40]3.63 [2.71, 4.29]18% [0%, 36%]45%59%+0.49+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall22 2 QC2.96 [2.24, 3.61]2.35-2.06 [-3.39, -0.42]3.63 [2.63, 4.23]18% [0%, 33%]45%59%+0.49+0.592026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC3.32 [2.73, 3.85]2.32-2.86 [-3.85, -1.73]4.00 [3.34, 4.46]18% [0%, 33%]41%45%+0.43+0.602026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC3.32 [2.51, 3.97]2.32-2.86 [-3.96, -1.54]4.00 [3.23, 4.51]18% [0%, 34%]41%45%+0.43+0.602026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC3.32 [2.45, 4.06]2.32-2.86 [-4.06, -1.44]4.00 [3.17, 4.62]18% [0%, 36%]41%45%+0.43+0.602026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Zbilinearall22 2 QC3.32 [2.39, 4.05]2.32-2.86 [-4.05, -1.44]4.00 [3.02, 4.59]18% [0%, 33%]41%45%+0.43+0.602026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest30d22 2 QC2.97 [2.33, 3.60]2.15-2.63 [-3.51, -1.71]3.77 [2.92, 4.38]27% [9%, 47%]41%59%+0.49+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest90d22 2 QC2.97 [2.17, 3.66]2.15-2.63 [-3.63, -1.40]3.77 [2.79, 4.46]27% [4%, 54%]41%59%+0.49+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearest365d22 2 QC2.97 [2.13, 3.80]2.15-2.63 [-3.79, -1.37]3.77 [2.77, 4.51]27% [0%, 55%]41%59%+0.49+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmax12Znearestall22 2 QC2.97 [2.12, 3.79]2.15-2.63 [-3.79, -1.33]3.77 [2.55, 4.51]27% [0%, 56%]41%59%+0.49+0.632026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d22 2 QC5.83 [5.33, 6.58]2.02+5.73 [5.17, 6.55]6.28 [5.71, 6.99]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.44+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d22 2 QC5.83 [5.37, 6.66]2.02+5.73 [5.25, 6.66]6.28 [5.68, 7.00]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.44+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d22 2 QC5.83 [5.32, 6.72]2.02+5.73 [5.15, 6.72]6.28 [5.65, 7.07]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.44+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall22 2 QC5.83 [5.37, 6.76]2.02+5.73 [5.22, 6.76]6.28 [5.68, 7.16]0% [0%, 0%]5%14%-0.44+0.502026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d22 2 QC6.73 [6.20, 7.55]2.13+6.65 [6.00, 7.50]7.21 [6.71, 7.97]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-0.66+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d22 2 QC6.73 [6.26, 7.77]2.13+6.65 [6.06, 7.77]7.21 [6.72, 8.01]5% [0%, 13%]5%9%-0.66+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d22 2 QC6.73 [6.23, 7.80]2.13+6.65 [6.06, 7.80]7.21 [6.75, 8.06]5% [0%, 14%]5%9%-0.66+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall22 2 QC6.73 [6.26, 7.92]2.13+6.65 [6.11, 7.92]7.21 [6.73, 8.13]5% [0%, 13%]5%9%-0.66+0.472026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear30d22 2 QC5.40 [4.88, 5.93]1.97+5.09 [4.23, 5.88]5.76 [5.26, 6.19]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-0.34+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear90d22 2 QC5.40 [4.87, 5.98]1.97+5.09 [4.32, 5.96]5.76 [5.22, 6.17]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-0.34+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinear365d22 2 QC5.40 [4.73, 5.99]1.97+5.09 [4.19, 5.99]5.76 [5.12, 6.19]5% [0%, 13%]5%9%-0.34+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Zbilinearall22 2 QC5.40 [4.81, 5.97]1.97+5.09 [4.23, 5.97]5.76 [5.14, 6.17]5% [0%, 12%]5%9%-0.34+0.512026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest30d22 2 QC6.17 [5.53, 6.92]2.09+5.84 [4.86, 6.90]6.54 [6.02, 7.10]5% [0%, 12%]5%5%-0.52+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest90d22 2 QC6.17 [5.56, 7.04]2.09+5.84 [4.91, 7.04]6.54 [6.08, 7.14]5% [0%, 12%]5%5%-0.52+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearest365d22 2 QC6.17 [5.43, 7.05]2.09+5.84 [4.79, 7.05]6.54 [5.94, 7.16]5% [0%, 13%]5%5%-0.52+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30
tmin12Znearestall22 2 QC6.17 [5.51, 7.02]2.09+5.84 [4.84, 7.02]6.54 [6.00, 7.11]5% [0%, 12%]5%5%-0.52+0.482026-08-04 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 3, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-04: +0.32 °F2026-08-10: -3.25 °F2026-08-11: -2.55 °F2026-08-12: -3.57 °F2026-08-13: -5.23 °F2026-08-14: -4.61 °F2026-08-15: -2.26 °F2026-08-16: -0.72 °F2026-08-17: +0.58 °F2026-08-18: -6.25 °F2026-08-19: -0.14 °F2026-08-20: -8.01 °F2026-08-21: +2.37 °F2026-08-22: +5.96 °F2026-08-23: -2.32 °F2026-08-24: -1.46 °F2026-08-25: -2.78 °F2026-08-26: -0.34 °F2026-08-27: -1.15 °F2026-08-28: -6.59 °F2026-08-29: -6.59 °F2026-08-30: -3.84 °F2026-08-042026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (27 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-3.84
2026-08-29-6.59
2026-08-28-6.59
2026-08-27-1.15
2026-08-26-0.34
2026-08-25-2.78
2026-08-24-1.46
2026-08-23-2.32
2026-08-22+5.96
2026-08-21+2.37
2026-08-20-8.01
2026-08-19-0.14
2026-08-18-6.25
2026-08-17+0.58
2026-08-16-0.72
2026-08-15-2.26
2026-08-14-4.61
2026-08-13-5.23
2026-08-12-3.57
2026-08-11-2.55
2026-08-10-3.25
2026-08-09—
2026-08-08—
2026-08-07—
2026-08-06—
2026-08-05—
2026-08-04+0.32

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for ECMWF IFS HRES at KOKC, lead day 3-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 1 day-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 3 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 1 day-4 to -3 °F: 3 days-3 to -2 °F: 4 days-2 to -1 °F: 2 days-1 to 0 °F: 3 days0 to 1 °F: 2 days1 to 2 °F: 0 days2 to 3 °F: 1 day3 to 4 °F: 0 days4 to 5 °F: 0 days5 to 6 °F: 1 day6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 0 days8 to 9 °F: 0 days9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 2.67 · P90 |e| 6.56 °F-100+10 °Fn = 22 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.001
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.003
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.001
-4.00-3.003
-3.00-2.004
-2.00-1.002
-1.00+0.003
+0.00+1.002
+1.00+2.000
+2.00+3.001
+3.00+4.000
+4.00+5.000
+5.00+6.001
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.000
+8.00+9.000
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08223.22 -2.38

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22
ECMWF IFS HRES2026-08-04 → 2026-08-30 22

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means ECMWF IFS HRES has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 22 -0.57 [-1.89, 0.34] no
NCEP GFS 22 -0.11 [-1.87, 1.99] no
GraphCast (IFS init) 20 -5.76 [-7.46, -4.61] yes
Persistence (baseline) 22 -2.55 [-5.52, -0.43] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC ifs_hres lead 3, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model ifs_hres, lead day 3. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/ifs_hres/lead/3/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

JSON CSV all scores methodology v0.2 licence