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CastCheck methodology v0.2 · data through 2026-08-30

Oklahoma City · NCEP GFS · lead day 0

KOKC · gfs · lead 0

Target day = initialization date + 0 days. This page is a permanent link: the numbers change as history accumulates, the address and the methodology version do not.

Scores use the latest model version segment, gfs-0p25, starting 2026-08-01 — days before that ran a different version of the model and are excluded rather than silently pooled. Of the scored days, 2 carry a QC flag on the observation.

JSON for this page CSV of the daily errors Cite this page

Every number for this combination

All four windows × both initializations × both interpolations × both variables. Errors are computed in °C and shown in °F; CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval. MAE debiased and skill, debiased remove the constant offset of the window first, so a station that the model always reads a degree too warm is not scored as if it had no skill — compare the two skill columns to see how much of the error is a fixed offset. n QC next to n counts days whose observation carries a QC flag.

VariableInitMethod Windown MAE °F MAE debiased Bias °F RMSE °F ±1 °F±2 °F±3 °F Skill Skill, debiased Period
tmax00Zbilinear30d30 2 QC2.50 [1.54, 3.71]2.38+1.32 [0.32, 2.28]3.36 [2.02, 4.60]30% [17%, 43%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear90d30 2 QC2.50 [1.40, 3.74]2.38+1.32 [0.20, 2.29]3.36 [1.83, 4.60]30% [19%, 48%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinear365d30 2 QC2.50 [1.28, 3.75]2.38+1.32 [0.09, 2.36]3.36 [1.60, 4.64]30% [17%, 50%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Zbilinearall30 2 QC2.50 [1.34, 3.86]2.38+1.32 [0.08, 2.32]3.36 [1.74, 4.75]30% [17%, 50%]53%73%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest30d30 2 QC2.54 [1.63, 3.57]2.39+1.40 [0.40, 2.35]3.31 [2.12, 4.33]30% [13%, 47%]47%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest90d30 2 QC2.54 [1.50, 3.59]2.39+1.40 [0.21, 2.44]3.31 [1.92, 4.34]30% [14%, 50%]47%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearest365d30 2 QC2.54 [1.37, 3.63]2.39+1.40 [-0.01, 2.45]3.31 [1.74, 4.36]30% [14%, 56%]47%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmax00Znearestall30 2 QC2.54 [1.45, 3.65]2.39+1.40 [0.10, 2.45]3.31 [1.82, 4.43]30% [14%, 52%]47%70%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear30d30 2 QC2.65 [1.98, 3.55]2.42+1.35 [-0.22, 2.98]3.26 [2.31, 4.28]17% [7%, 27%]50%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear90d30 2 QC2.65 [1.92, 3.70]2.42+1.35 [-0.44, 3.19]3.26 [2.24, 4.40]17% [6%, 28%]50%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinear365d30 2 QC2.65 [1.90, 3.57]2.42+1.35 [-0.45, 3.12]3.26 [2.18, 4.29]17% [7%, 29%]50%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Zbilinearall30 2 QC2.65 [1.88, 3.71]2.42+1.35 [-0.41, 3.24]3.26 [2.15, 4.43]17% [7%, 29%]50%60%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest30d30 2 QC2.84 [2.06, 3.74]2.59+1.34 [-0.55, 3.22]3.49 [2.50, 4.48]20% [13%, 30%]40%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest90d30 2 QC2.84 [1.95, 3.89]2.59+1.34 [-0.79, 3.51]3.49 [2.40, 4.62]20% [10%, 32%]40%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearest365d30 2 QC2.84 [1.93, 3.82]2.59+1.34 [-0.81, 3.39]3.49 [2.35, 4.53]20% [11%, 31%]40%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30
tmin00Znearestall30 2 QC2.84 [1.88, 3.90]2.59+1.34 [-0.81, 3.50]3.49 [2.28, 4.64]20% [11%, 31%]40%57%——2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30

+ model too warm · − model too cold · bias interval includes zero · ★ lowest MAE · = not distinguishable from the leader · ▼ significantly worse · n < 30 greyed and unranked · CI is a 95 % moving-block bootstrap interval.

Daily error, last 90 days

Daily forecast minus observed error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 0, 00Z bilinear tmax+10+50-5-102026-08-01: -0.97 °F2026-08-02: +2.76 °F2026-08-03: +2.9 °F2026-08-04: +1.84 °F2026-08-05: +0.92 °F2026-08-06: +2.47 °F2026-08-07: +7.31 °F2026-08-08: +2.07 °F2026-08-09: +1.52 °F2026-08-10: -0.89 °F2026-08-11: +2.02 °F2026-08-12: +0.01 °F2026-08-13: -1.08 °F2026-08-14: -1.02 °F2026-08-15: +1.59 °F2026-08-16: +1.96 °F2026-08-17: +0.3 °F2026-08-18: -2.28 °F2026-08-19: +4.69 °F2026-08-20: -5.64 °F2026-08-21: +7.23 °F2026-08-22: +8.81 °F2026-08-23: +3.4 °F2026-08-24: +0.35 °F2026-08-25: -3.27 °F2026-08-26: +4.88 °F2026-08-27: +0.23 °F2026-08-28: -1.16 °F2026-08-29: -1 °F2026-08-30: -0.35 °F2026-08-012026-08-30°F, forecast − observed
Forecast − observed, °F, 00Z bilinear daily maximum. The dashed line is zero; the thick line is a centred 7-day mean, drawn only where the whole window is present. Gaps are days with no score, never interpolation. Hover a point for its date and value.
The same series as a table (30 days, newest first) · download CSV
Climatological dayError °F
2026-08-30-0.35
2026-08-29-1.00
2026-08-28-1.16
2026-08-27+0.23
2026-08-26+4.88
2026-08-25-3.27
2026-08-24+0.35
2026-08-23+3.40
2026-08-22+8.81
2026-08-21+7.23
2026-08-20-5.64
2026-08-19+4.69
2026-08-18-2.28
2026-08-17+0.30
2026-08-16+1.96
2026-08-15+1.59
2026-08-14-1.02
2026-08-13-1.08
2026-08-12+0.01
2026-08-11+2.02
2026-08-10-0.89
2026-08-09+1.52
2026-08-08+2.07
2026-08-07+7.31
2026-08-06+2.47
2026-08-05+0.92
2026-08-04+1.84
2026-08-03+2.90
2026-08-02+2.76
2026-08-01-0.97

Error distribution

Distribution of the signed daily error in °F for NCEP GFS at KOKC, lead day 0-10 to -9 °F: 0 days-9 to -8 °F: 0 days-8 to -7 °F: 0 days-7 to -6 °F: 0 days-6 to -5 °F: 1 day-5 to -4 °F: 0 days-4 to -3 °F: 1 day-3 to -2 °F: 1 day-2 to -1 °F: 3 days-1 to 0 °F: 4 days0 to 1 °F: 5 days1 to 2 °F: 4 days2 to 3 °F: 5 days3 to 4 °F: 1 day4 to 5 °F: 2 days5 to 6 °F: 0 days6 to 7 °F: 0 days7 to 8 °F: 2 days8 to 9 °F: 1 day9 to 10 °F: 0 daysdashed: P50 |e| 1.9 · P90 |e| 5.8 °F-100+10 °Fn = 30 days
All scored days for 00Z bilinear daily maximum, 20 equal bins. The dashed marks are the 50th and 90th percentiles of the absolute error, mirrored on both sides. Hover a bar for its bin and count.
Bin counts as a table
From °FTo °FDays
-10.00-9.000
-9.00-8.000
-8.00-7.000
-7.00-6.000
-6.00-5.001
-5.00-4.000
-4.00-3.001
-3.00-2.001
-2.00-1.003
-1.00+0.004
+0.00+1.005
+1.00+2.004
+2.00+3.005
+3.00+4.001
+4.00+5.002
+5.00+6.000
+6.00+7.000
+7.00+8.002
+8.00+9.001
+9.00+10.000

Month by month

00Z bilinear daily maximum, newest first.

Monthn MAE °FBias °F
2026-08302.50 +1.32

Availability

ModelScored period DaysCoverage
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30
NCEP GFS2026-08-01 → 2026-08-30 30

Compared with other models

Paired bootstrap on the days both models cover (90d, 00Z, bilinear, daily maximum). Negative means NCEP GFS has the lower MAE. "Distinguishable" means the 95 % interval excludes zero.

Other modelCommon days MAE difference °FDistinguishable
ECMWF AIFS Single 30 -1.09 [-2.38, 0.13] no
Aurora (GFS init) 2 -4.48 [-4.87, -4.09] yes
Aurora (IFS init) 3 -5.69 [-6.21, -5.43] yes
FourCastNet v2 (GFS init) 2 -5.21 [-5.57, -4.86] yes
FourCastNet v2 (IFS init) 3 -5.78 [-6.08, -5.18] yes
GraphCast (GFS init) 2 -5.07 [-5.40, -4.73] yes
GraphCast (IFS init) 28 -3.89 [-5.90, -2.16] yes
ECMWF IFS HRES 24 -1.34 [-3.07, 0.38] no
Pangu-Weather (GFS init) 2 -2.88 [-3.12, -2.64] yes
Pangu-Weather (IFS init) 3 -4.08 [-4.81, -3.58] yes

Cite this page

ShortCastCheck, KOKC gfs lead 0, methodology v0.2, accessed 2026-08-31, https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/0/

LongCastCheck (2026). Station-level verification of raw weather-model 2 m temperature forecasts: KOKC (Oklahoma City), model gfs, lead day 0. Methodology version 0.2, schema version 0.1, data through 2026-08-30. Accessed 2026-08-31. https://castcheck.zifanzhang.com/station/KOKC/model/gfs/lead/0/

Accessed2026-08-31 (data through 2026-08-30; page built 2026-08-31T03:52:06+00:00)

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